Point Blank – February 15
What a “Bettor Better Know” – Weekend Hoops…With a cheap excuse for some classic Dire Straits…These Cowboys do not have many horses to ride into Lawrence…
As College Basketball enters that key “bubble” time of year (I know, the word can be fingernails on chalkboard because of overuse, but at least here it is indeed appropriate), with notions of getting into the tournament impacting the energy level for dozens of teams, there is also a different fascination in looking at the upper tier, which will be the focus today. The ceilings are much lower for most of the elite teams as I look around the nation this February, but in a season in which the elevator does not go all the way to the penthouse, a high ceiling is not all that mandatory. I currently show over a dozen teams that are capable of cutting the nets down in Houston, more than twice the usual “short list” at this stage, which indicates how wide open it is.
There is also a theme developing as I watched the action this weekend. Because the talent at the top is not what is has been in the past, an occasional consequence that will be part of the “one-and-done” era, this tournament will not necessarily be won by the team with the best basketball players, but instead the one that plays the best basketball. The top three teams from last season’s Final Four – Wisconsin, Kentucky and Duke, would all rate at least a full -6 on a neutral over any current team, which says something about this year’s field. It also means that the focus going forward should be on those squads that are capable of executing the sport at high levels, even if their resumes for the full season are not necessarily brilliant, and this weekend did bring some intrigue on that front.
Since one particular outcome made such an impact, we can go to the jukebox today to help you get through the topics – as Wisconsin once again proved to be the “Sultans of Swing”, there is the cheap excuse for some classic Mark Knopfler and Dire Straits -
Like the way the Badgers execute on the court, for Dire Straits it was about each player doing their part, which culminated brilliantly on so many occasions, in this instance Terry Williams’ masterful work on the drums helping to set up Knopfler’s guitar soars…
Item: Wisconsin is becoming interesting (again)
The Badgers were not ranked heading in to last week, as well they should not have been based on the full-season body of work – losing to Western Illinois, Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Marquette should do that. Those losses were shockers, given that Wisconsin was favored by 45 points across the three games, but also showed how much losing the likes of Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker, Josh Gasser and Traevon Jackson would mean, in addition to the legendary Bo Ryan.
But while the Badgers indeed had to rebuild after losing the best core of players in the history of the program, the coaching change may not prove to be so dramatic. As noted here a couple of months ago, Greg Gard coached under Ryan for 23 seasons, and knows that “swing” offense about as well as anyone outside of the originator could. It was not so much losing Ryan that led to the early struggles but instead adapting that offensive scheme to the current roster; because of the intricacies it indeed takes time. What Gard has talked about in recent weeks is going back to even more to that swing attack as the base of the offense, and the pieces are not only starting to fit, but showing some real upside.
Wisconsin is now on a 7-0 SU and ATS run in which the Badgers have beaten three teams that will get high NCAA seeds, and the last leg of that surge was a 70-57 win at Maryland on Saturday, the Terrapins ranked #2 entering the game, keyed by arguably the best in-game salvo any team has turned in all season – from 13:30 to 0:02 of the First Half, Wisconsin went on a 28-5 run. That is an astonishing thing to do on the road against that class of opponent.
The Wisconsin surge will create headaches for the kind of sorting that goes on when the NCAA committee meets a month from now – they have lacked the ability to filter through the full-season results and focus more on the true current form of the teams. The serious handicapper does not have to face those limitations. If you can do what Wisconsin did at Maryland on Saturday it means that you are good enough to beat any team anywhere.
After Saturday’s win, Gard was open about the ride the team has been through - "This group has grown so much together over the last eight to nine weeks. We've grown as much off the court as you've seen improvement on the court. That's a huge reason why we're able to do something like this. Seven, eight weeks ago, there was no way this group had a maturity level enough to be able to come in here and stick together and do this."
Can you lose the kind of games the Badgers lost in non-conference play and still make the Big Dance? Current form says yes, the selection committee may still say no, so there is still some work ahead for Gard’s team.
Item: Tyler Ulis played big minutes again
Sub-Item: But Ulis has also been the best player in the country across those minutes
Sub-Sub Item: Kentucky is becoming interesting (again)
It was that veteran Wisconsin team last spring that knocked out exquisitely-talented Kentucky in the NCAA semi-finals, and for most of this season Wildcat fans having been watching a team that brought much lower expectations, heading into last week only ranked at #22. Because of those limitations John Calipari has had to keep key cog Tyler Ulis on the floor far too long, some of it inexcusable, the latest being the 38 minutes he played at South Carolina on Saturday when even the Kentucky assistants were hesitant to have him ever leave the court, despite the Wildcats leading by as many as 34 points.
There is, of course, the continuing concern about fatigue impacting the play of a guy that is only 5-9/160, which has been dealt with here multiple times in previous Monday reviews. But there is also the is also the fact that Ulis is playing as well as any player in the nation right now, with 27 points and 12 assists at South Carolina, while only turning the ball over once. Over the past four games it is 36 assists vs. only four turnovers, to go with nine steals, and when a point guard has more than twice as many steals as turnovers, he is playing special basketball. Not to mention scoring 79 points in those games.
So let’s assume for a moment that Ulis is not going to wear down come March. Since being rudely spanked at Tennessee, a game Kentucky came out flat for after being drained from that OT loss at Kansas, it has been a 3-0 SU and ATS surge in which the Wildcats led Florida by as many as 26 points, then Georgia by 33, before building that 34-point margin on Saturday. It has been superb basketball on both ends of the floor, in particular Jamal Murray scoring 85 points in those three games (yes, the chemistry he is developing with Ulis is one of the upsides of the latter getting all of those minutes).
Indirectly, Kentucky having lesser talent this season is showing an upside – the Wildcats have the same core group on the court together longer, and as such as starting to play a good brand of tactical basketball. They will still not be all that high in the ratings this week, but much as Wisconsin on Saturday was good enough to beat any team anywhere, so has Kentucky been over the past 10 days.
Item: Grayson Allen traveled, which may actually be a good thing for Virginia backers going forward
Another one of those “chemistry” teams that shows the ability to win via execution this season, because there will not be a major talent mismatch against anyone, is Virginia. The Cavaliers were alive for a deep run last year but got caught up in a matchup vs. Michigan State that happened earlier in the brackets than it should have, the Spartans one of those physically and mentally tough teams that would not be bothered by the Cavalier pace and precision (as was the case when they also eliminated them the previous season, in a 61-59 Sweet 16 nail-biter). Tony Bennett’s team lost four games last season, to eventual champion Duke by six, after holding a late lead, then at Louisville by two, to North Carolina by four in the ACC tourney, and then the Final Four-bound Spartans by six in the second round of the Big Dance. Not a bad “L” in that group.
As noted in an early January Monday review, this season the pieces were a bit slow to connect, but there was a magical moment when they pulled off that semi-miraculous rally at Wake Forest (the Deacons also helped, of course), and since then they have played as well as any team, including what will go down into the record books as a loss at Duke on Saturday, but one in which Virginia could just have easily been the victor.
Yes, Allen traveled prior to making that final shot, his right foot on the ground before the ball was released –
But that could turn out to be a small break for someone looking to find value on the Cavaliers going forward. Win at Duke, and the post-game media lights shine a little too brightly; lose, regardless of how, and those lights get dimmed. The concern with Bennett’s teams in recent years is that while they play terrific fundamental basketball, sooner or later they might run into an opponent that simply had more talent than they could overcome. There is no team in this year’s field that will fill that description.
Item: Oklahoma and Kansas beat each other up, again
In terms of full season play, Kansas and Oklahoma have been the two best teams. Each has been a topic on these pages detailing why they got out of the gate so well, including a recent focus on Kansas earlier in February.The question is how well these teams can hold up. Both had long trips before Big 12 play came around, Kansas in South Korea last summer and then Hawaii in November, while the Sooners had the rare layout of two trips to Hawaii. That might have been OK in another campaign, but the Big 12 is so very grueling this time, while each side also stepped out of conference recently for a major non-league showdown (vs. Kentucky and LSU). So while winning the conference indeed brings major bragging rights, especially for the phenomenal run the Jayhawks have put together under Bill Self, in terms of winning in April, the last thing these teams needed to do was take each other to the max head-to-head. Which is exactly what they have now done twice, 95 exhilarating floor minutes, a missed free throw by Buddy Hield almost sending them to overtime again on Saturday. The serious handicapper needs to delve into measuring how much of a toll this is going to take over the long haul.
Not only do both teams have several major Big 12 challenges yet ahead, but then comes the league tourney, not only with the prospects of an Iowa State, West Virginia or Texas in the semi-finals, but possibly meeting each other again in the championship round. Sometimes in horse racing value can be found in a setting in which you see reasons why a couple of the best horses in the field will not run well, looking to the added value that means to the others. That may well be the case for what have been the two best teams in the nation to this point. I am not sure that either Oklahoma or Kansas will have enough left to close strong over the final furlong(s).
Item: It is OK to like Avery Johnson already (a season ahead of schedule)
Alabama shouldn’t really be in the NCAA tournament discussion this season, and the Crimson Tide are off topic from the others today because even if they do get in they are not a threat to last long. But after winning at Florida on Saturday they have elevated themselves to 15-9, and are one of those classic “bubble” teams for the weeks ahead. You can give just about every bit of that credit to Johnson.
Being a good college coach does not necessarily mean you are ready for the NBA, and you can sort through the files for many examples (Tarkanian, Caliparia, Floyd, etc.). But when an NBA coach drops down to the college ranks there can be a much different impact – in terms of in-game adjustments those basketball levels are miles apart, a single NBA season being worth as many as four or five college campaigns when it comes to X’s and O’s adjustments and late-game decisions. So how has Alabama turned the corner so quickly? The Crimson Tide are 9-3 straight-up in games decided by six points or less in regulation, and have already won eight games outright in which they were underdogs. Johnson has not only been maximizing the talent available to get his team in the hunt, but also making the kind of end-game adjustments that have had them come out on the right side of so many close decisions, including back-to-back wins over tourney-bound Texas A&M and Florida last week.
Johnson has the pedigree. Playing nearly 700 games under Gregg Popovich, and winning an NBA title, sets a player up pretty well for the next level (all told Johnson played 1,054 regular-season games, and 90 more in the playoffs). His first head coaching stint at Dallas will go down in the annals of sports history, getting fired despite a 194-70 record and what could have been an NBA title in 2007. It is a resume that I believe absolutely matters to college players – show them that you have a Championship ring, and they are going to listen. So far the Alabama players have bought in, not having the talent for anything to come all that easily, but playing hard enough and smart enough to gut it out more often than not when things have been close.
In The Sights…
A small Monday board does not bring much to work with, but there is a situati0n that stand out for those that have access - #707 Oklahoma State Team Total Under (9:00 Eastern). I believe there is value at 62 or higher, though you can find a full basket better than that from the first to offer. This one works from both directions in play, with good defense choking off bad offense.
Since losing Jawun Evans at Texas Tech the short-handed Cowboys have had to drastically slow the tempo in order to compete, venturing deep into the shot clock for what are often empty trips anyway – since halftime of that game in Lubbock, State has scored 203 points in 150 game minutes, or the equivalent of 54.1 for a regulation 40. If anything the pace will have to be even slower here, after Leyton Hammonds and Tyree Griffin played 39 minutes, and Jeff New berry 37, in Saturday’s overtime win over Kansas State, making this far from the ideal time to have to deal with a short turnaround.
Meanwhile Kansas may show weary legs as well when it comes to pushing the pace on offense, but since that overtime win over Kentucky the Jayhawks have played four straight Under’s, the defense allowing just 35.3 percent shooting across that span. And fears of them losing focus after winning at Oklahoma do not need to enter the handicap – after getting stunned 86-67 vs. the Cowboys in Stillwater, those game films are all Bill Self needs to get his team’s proper attention. What those films will mostly show is Evans having 22 points, eight assists and six rebounds; State simply does not have a replacement for him.
I am putting the eggs in the OSU Team Total Under instead of full game Under because there is a chance that the Cowboys could lose contact here, and Kansas might break the game open, which could mean that the State defense loses the will to compete in the latter stages. But that offense may never be able to get into any kind of gear.
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