Point Blank – February 3
On NCAA depth, and why Kansas looks so damn tired…On watching Kentucky fade from 34-13 to 77-84 at Tennessee…On preparing to like Earl Watson, and whether or not Archie Goodwin can play PG…And on to Lawrence, for a Wednesday night grinder…
Let’s start with something that I do for my own records that most official sources do not – I only track regulation results in terms of assign an ATS or O/U verdict. I believe there is long-term merit to that, because it brings me the best grading of the result for what I am focusing on. With that out of the way, here is the current run by Kansas over the last six games:
SU ATS Margin
3-3 0-6* -76
(* - most will credit a cover for a 90-84 win in OT over Kentucky, but the Jayhawks were -5.5, and it was 76-76 at the end of regulation)
That is quite a negative run, especially when you consider that when the cycle began, Bill Self’s team was rated #1 in the nation. How does a team playing that well fall off to the point at which the betting markets having been over-rating them by 12.7 points per game? In continuing a theme of the week as college basketball turns to February it is time for another discussion of fatigue – I believe the Jayhawks are flat-out tired. The path that helped to get them to the top of the national ratings is also the one that has made it difficult for them to remain at that level.
The core of this team played 36 games last year, losing to Wichita State in the second round of the Big Dance, with Kelly Oubre’s 23 minutes the only ones played in that game by a non-returnee. Then there was a unique opportunity presented in the summer, a chance for the Jayhawks to represent the USA in the World University Games in South Korea, almost as an entire unit. They were not able to use Chieck Diallo (Africa) or Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (Ukraine) because they were not US citizens, so Nic Moore (SMU) and Julian DeBose (Florida Gulf Coast) joined them. But it was Bill Self and his coaching staff, and the heart of the team were the current Jayhawks.
Many times teams benefit from playing a series of games overseas in the off-season, and that is something that was written about here back in November. They get extra practices, the time abroad also being a good chance for the players to bond, and then there are the obvious benefits of the games themselves. For Kansas it was a unique challenge, playing far more games than the usual 3-5, and against much tougher competition - the USA team had not medalled in that tournament since 2009, and last won the gold in 2005.
Self and his team captured that gold, winning eight games over 11 days, two of them going into overtime. It goes down as the toughest off-season trip I have ever charted for any team, and it is a reason why they got out of the gate so well, vaulting to #1 and also opening 10-3 ATS vs. the market expectations. They were far more ready to get out of the gate than most other teams. But are we seeing the downside of that scheduling now?
It would have been one thing if the players had only had that tournament, and then came back into a normal season, but this schdule has been far from normal. The Jayhawks played Michigan State at Chicago in an early showdown, before heading off to Maui for three games. Now comes a Big 12 that is as tough as it has ever been, with losses in double figures at West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Iowa State already, and before the second go-round in league play there just happened to be that showdown at home vs. Kentucky on Saturday night. That was a long and grueling affair, but actually paled in comparison to the triple overtime at Allen Fieldhouse vs. Oklahoma in early January.
As such, even in gutting out that win over Kentucky, this looks like a tired team. There are four starters averaging at least 30 minutes per game, and while they have the experience and savvy to show a nice chemistry in getting all of those minutes together, the quality of those minutes is falling off. The question now becomes whether there is hope of finding a second-wind. There are still 10 Big 12 games remaining, and then the league tourney, before the Big Dance begins, and what appeared to be a legitimate contender to win it all might find that the finish line is simply too far away.
That was a tremendous showing that the Kansas players and coaches put on in South Korea last summer, gold medals that will be memories for the rest of their lives. But will those memories become tarnished by what the run may have cost them in terms of this season? More on that in a moment, with a prospect to cash a ticket tonight…
About Last Night, NCAA…
Kentucky got out-played badly in the second half at Tennessee last night, as an early 34-13 lead turned into an 84-77 defeat, and one of the prime topics from the Monday column needs to go front-and-center in the post mortem – Tyler Ulis looked tired down the stretch.
Ulis had to go 38 minutes last night, which takes his count to 240 over the last six road games (the overtime at Kansas made up for the few brief stints he has been on the bench), and while his overall numbers will read well, the fatigue showed down the stretch. After the final television time-out at 4:17 he went 0-2 from the field, and in a key sequence that began with 1:20 remaining he missed the front end of a one-and-one (he was at 88.4 percent at the line prior to that miss), and then committed a bad foul on the ensuing possession, with four seconds left on the shot clock, a sequence in which John Calipari called for his defense to get a stop, instead of putting the Volunteers at the FT line.
This is going to remain an issue because Ulis is such a key cog in the Kentucky arsenal. The Wildcats were out-scored 26-4 off the bench last night, and for all of the images of great talent that comes to mind when one thinks of the program, this year’s group is just a bit fragile. Hence the importance of Ulis, and also why measuring his personal fatigue levels will be a key handicapping tool.
About Last Night, NBA…
There wasn’t anything about Toronto’s 104-97 scoreboard at Phoenix that would lead most to a second glance, the game falling close to the closing line, and the outcome certainly fitting expectations. But when a new coach takes over a little extra focus should go into sifting through the remains, and there was an eye-popper in Earl Watson’s debut – Archie Goodwin dishing a dozen assists.
As noted in the Monday column, a prime reason for the recent collapse by the Suns has been playing without a natural PG, neither Goodwin nor Devin Booker fitting the role. Goodwin had not had more than six assists in any game in his career prior to last night, and in 36 floor minutes at Dallas on Sunday did not have any. It means time to keep the focus on, in particular because I expect to like Watson, who is indeed auditioning for the full-time HC spot.
Here is how Watson set the tone overall – “The energy was positive. I think we have another step to go. It’s not really physical with our team; it’s more mental and mental toughness is a fragile, unique path that you have to take. I think for our team we have to build it slowly, build it with love and nurturing because we have been through a lot this year.” Not what you usually hear from an interim guy, is it? As for his take on Goodwin - “He has a wire strength that reminds me a lot of Gary Payton, the way he is built. He looks slim, but he is really strong so he has a lot of core strength and we’ll continue to build his confidence because Archie has a bright future.”
There are not going to be any miracles taking place in Phoenix the rest of this season. But if what had been a rudderless ship finds some direction, there may be some “buy low” opportunities in a marketplace that has the Suns on a low shelf.
In the Sights, NCAA…
I believe we can put today’s opening sermon into play immediately, heading to Allen Fieldhouse tonight for #556 Kansas/Kansas State Under (9:00 Eastern). There is plenty of 145 to be found this morning; it fits at 144 or better. You have already read enough about the Kansas side of the equation; it will be some of the issues the Wildcats bring that not only slows this flow down, but also leads to a night that could bring ugly offensive efficiency.
Kansas State can more than hold its own defensively and on the boards, with Bruce Weber’s team having the size and athleticism up front to not back down. It is scoring that will be a problem. Starting PG Kamau Stokes went down with a knee injury in Saturday’s win over Mississippi, and is not expected to play, shaking up a rotation that was already fragile enough offensively. Here is Weber’s take - “It will be point guard by committee. Wes (Iwundu, 6-7 junior) has played some point as has Barry (Brown, 6-3 freshman). Carlbe (Ervin II, 6-3 junior) is going to play. I’m not sure he can play 35 minutes.”
Even with Stokes available scoring on the Big 12 road has been a challenge – through four trips the Wildcats have averaged 61.8 in regulation, shooting 37.9 percent, and those four games finished 41 points below the market expectations (that 79-72 loss at Baylor was only 59-59 prior to overtime). I see more of the same tonight, and with those State offensive struggles keeping the outcome from being close, it also helps to take fears of late-game scrambling out of play.
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