Point Blank – February 10
Dealing with the NBA’s “Suitcase Wednesday"…The morning after, from New Hampshire (what would a Trump/Sanders parlay have paid about a year ago?)…These Running Rebels can’t do much more than offer a light jog…
It is not uncommon for folks in the industry to refer to tonight as “Suitcase Wednesday”, and the same for tomorrow, although the fact that the Thursday board is much lighter makes this card stand out more. For most of these teams it is the last time on the court before the All Star break, and it marks the end of what is a rather long slog - several teams will go into the break having already played 55 of their 82 regular-season games.
This is the bind that the NBA gets itself into by not only having such a long schedule, but also allowing too many teams into the playoffs. They do not want the Finals running into July so it means that the season must start early, but they also do not want the All Star game up against the NFL, which pushes that spectacle back into the middle of February (a good move for each sport would be for the NFL to shitcan the Pro Bowl, and have the NBA All Star game be played the week before the Super Bowl, which may well happen some day).
So Suitcase Wednesday became the way of referring to what the expected mindset of the players would be for this particular board, acknowledging that for many of the road teams the players would not travel back to their home cities together, instead many of them departing from tonight’s venue for their upcoming vacation. As such, Old Wife’s Tails have collected through the years about how erratic these games can be, and in particular about how you should not trust the visiting teams. Had I not chosen to delve into this topic, you might easily adapt some of that into your own thinking.
The problem is that it just does not hold up. I have done this sorting in the past, and yesterday ran back through eight seasons of results for the Wednesday/Thursday pre-break games for verification, and the home court advantage has turned out to be exactly what it was supposed to across those games, within a single outcome of a 50-50 coin toss. The road teams have maintained their competitive integrity, if we are to use the betting markets as a measurement. It is when we get to the Totals that it becomes interesting.
One could easily build a case that these games should be looser and more free flowing, with those players not heading to the All Star game thinking as much about what beach that will be spreading a towel on in the days ahead, and they sure as hell would want to avoid injury on this night of all. That means more points, right, with a lesser focus on defense? But that has not been the case.
Playing Under on all of these settings over the last eight seasons would have actually brought a 64-48-2 return. That may not be what many would expect, but it shows that there is not necessarily the waving of a matador flag on defense, and there is even an underlying logic that can lead you to some opportunities – looking for games in which both sides take the court looking for a win, to guarantee the right focus and intensity, but also lacking the legs to have the game be much more than a slog. There is one on the Wednesday board that I believe fits the pattern, which I will get to in a moment, but first a moment to prepare for what will be some interesting days ahead in the political betting markets…
About Last Night, New Hampshire…
The aftermath of New Hampshire will be fascinating to watch as the Punditry scrambles to cobble together some sellable narratives, and it is indeed a unique spectacle - just a year ago who could have thought that it would be Sanders/Trump comfortably winning the same state just about anywhere? But from a betting standpoint it also becomes a time to show patience and roll up the sleeves - for all of the media flames being fanned, Iowa/New Hampshire tend to not be good indicators of what is to come (in 2012 Ron Paul got 22.8 percent of the NH vote and Jon Huntsman 16.8, remember them?).
There were some major plusses for Trump last night in an indirect way - the showing of Kasich and Bush. The longer the "establishment" candidacy remains scrambled, the deeper he can stay alive into this process - Rubio, Kasich and Bush splitting votes keeps that element from becoming a solidified block, and it is that block that is still his biggest problem in terms of winning the nomination. Here is a good way to put that in perspective, using some of Nate Silver's analysis from 538.com's live blogging during the evening -
One of my favorite cross-tabulations in the exit poll is its breakdown of when voters made their final decision. In Iowa, Trump faded substantially among late deciders, leading to his second-place finish. Presumably he did better in New Hampshire? Well, sort of. In the table below, which is derived from the exit poll, I’ve grouped voters who decided “just today” or within the last few days into the “late decider” group and those who made a decision “in the last month” or “before that” into the “early decider” group. The results suggest that Trump didn’t do particularly well among late deciders, winning 22 percent of their votes. But he had a lot of voters who were loyal to him from the start:
CANDIDATE EARLY DECIDERS LATE DECIDERS
Trump 48 22
Kasich 10 22
Cruz 12 12
Bush 9 12
Rubio 9 12
Christie 4 10
-----------------------------------------------------------
The key takeaway here? If we add Christie to that "establishment" block, where he belongs, well over half of the late deciders were voting in that direction. It remains a difficult block for either Trump or Cruz to overcome if it gets unified behind a single candidate, but as long as the votes continue to be split it creates what may be an illusion in the market perceptions of both Trump and Cruz running stronger than they actually may be. Now let's see how the markets react (or over-react).
In the Sights, NBA…
Atlanta and Chicago will both go into the break above .500, and jockeying for position in the Eastern Conference playoff seeding, which makes tonight’s clash an important one, yet also one that could be extremely sluggish on the floor. That puts #518 Bulls/Hawks Under (8:05 Eastern) into play, with 204 easy to find in the morning trading.
The scheduling set-up is simply horrendous in terms of physical energy. For Atlanta it is the 14th straight court change, and 23rd of 24 games, while it is 19 straight court changes for Chicago, with only one day off as the Bulls return from an arduous seven-game road trip that was one of the most rare of all – they played a game in all four time zones. Now they have to try to find some energy while playing without Jimmy Butler, and with this travel cycle not helping the knees of Derrick Rose to get the rest they need. This one will not be pretty to watch, but ugly pays fine at the cashier’s window.
In the Sights, NCAA…
Dave Wojcik said this in the off-season, referring to what was ahead for #569 San Jose State (10:00 Eastern) – “Everyone will pick us last (in the MWC) as they should, and that’s fine. I get that. But we’re going to surprise a lot of people because of the skill level we have with these kids coming in.” Wojcik has indeed been prescient, a talented freshmen class growing up to the point at which Jaycee Hillsman, Ryan Welage and Cody Schwartz are all now starting, and it has led to a 3-8 showing so far in league play. The key is that the 3-8 has not generated a ripple in the marketplace, which can happen when you were 0-18 the previous season. As such, the Spartans are 8-3 ATS across those MWC games, beating the market expectations by 54 points, or nearly five full points per game.
Now they have a chance to get even better, first with the confidence of back-to-back conference wins in double figures under their belts, and then the rare benefit of a full week off in the middle of league play, not only providing the chance to get fresh physically, but also a teaching opportunity for Wojcik and those young players. Yet the markets are still not paying heed – there is +15.5 available for tonight’s matchup at UNLV, despite the fact that the favored Rebels have issues galore.
Some of the UNLV problems were detailed here last week, through an easy “In the Sights…” Over ticket at New Mexico, the loss of Ben Carter being a big blow for the Rebel defense. It got worse at Fresno State on Saturday when Stephen Zimmerman was lost for the remainder of the season, reducing the rotation to just seven players, none of them a fit in the post. So now a short-handed roster and a defense that has allowed 87 and 88 in regulation the last two games is being asked to get a prohibitive margin, against a fresher and deeper opponent (SJS has 10 different players averaging at least 11 minutes per game in MWC play).
Mired in a three-game losing streak, playing for a lame-duck interim coach, and with four different players logging more than 40 minutes in Saturday’s double-overtime defeat, there is not much spark for UNLV to go out and get a margin tonight, and the lack of depth leaves the back-door wide open.
The complete Point Blank Archive
U.S. Election 2016: The Perils of Polls
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)