Point Blank – December 8
What a Bettor Better Know – NFL #13…And the First Song of Christmas…
The NFL weekend that was, beginning with an ending in Detroit for the ages, then riding through some Sunday results that provide plenty of challenges in the interpretation. You want a face-mask penalty setting up a Hail Mary to win a game? How about TD runs of 44 and 87 yards by QBs that were actually passing plays? A 21-0 run by a team that gained one offensive yard through the entire cycle? A 20-0 run from a team that gained 19 yards through the cycle? Busted passing plays that turned into long rushing TDs? Let’s get to work…
Item: Philadelphia gains one yard over 14:16 of game time, yet won the scoreboard 21-0
I could have started this week with the Packers/Lions ending as the lead topic, but that was covered in Friday’s column, a frustrating ending for the Lions, and for that that had either bet them, or the Under (I did the latter). So when you saw Bill Belichick’s scowl on the sidelines Sunday, many of you could probably relate to it. That helps to provide the theme for this week’s Tuesday musical interlude, as a cycle of Holiday classics begins that will run through the December NFL Tuesday’s. They will get closer to the true spirit of the season as each week goes by, but the starting point is one that many of you likely feel around this time, the best parts of the Holiday a ways off, but the logistical hassles and mind-numbing commercial aspects beginning to pile up (like trying to create a flight schedule that enables one to be able to time the betting of bowl halftimes from a departure lounge). Now for the genius of Eric Idle -
Go tell the elves…
Yes, when you hear that line for the first time you sense that you are being set up for a climax, the slight pause in the tempo to draw you in, and then the brilliant phrasing to finish it out.
OK, so just what does that Philadelphia cycle mean? The Eagles ran off 35 straight points in Foxboro, the odds of that happening truly difficult to calculate, and it was in the middle of it that things got bizarre – from 1:32 of the second quarter, to 2:16 of the third, the Philadelphia offense was on the field for three plays, gaining one yard. But there were TDs on a blocked punt, a 99-yard return of a Tom Brady interception, and a punt return for another score, to make it 21-0 across that stretch, and turn the game inside out.
The Eagles certainly solved one of their problems – a team that had put forth little effort the past two games had their fire rekindled, some of it in a bizarre way that could indeed lead Belichick to become a Scrooge. After taking a 14-0 lead early in the second quarter, he called for a pooch kick that failed, giving the Eagles good field position at their 41-yard line. While Belichick may have spotted something on film that he thought could be exploited, he gave a little shot in the arm to a team that had been out-scored 76-17 since halftime vs. Tampa Bay two weeks previously, and may not have risen from the turf otherwise. Philly turned that positioning into a TD drive, and not only did the momentum of the game change, but perhaps the momentum of their season.
But while the Philadelphia energy level may indeed increase, the issues on offense were not resolved – the Eagles managed only 4.3 yards per play, and their own sloppiness turned what should have been a comfortable 35-14 lead with less than 6:00 to play into a 35-28 tussle with the Patriots getting the ball for one last opportunity. The effort will be better this week, but execution is another matter entirely.
Item: And then there was Pittsburgh’s 39-0 run
The 35-0 Eagle stretch at New England was built around several bounces; the 39-0 Steeler close-out of the Colts was not. After struggling vs. Cincinnati in his first game back, perhaps playing a week too early, over the last four games Ben Roethlisbeger has thrown for 1,533 yards and 10 TDs. It is an indication of what this offense can do when most hands are on deck, in a season in which they will rarely have all of them (just imagine LeVeon Bell added to this mix). The question is on the other side of the ball. After being riddled by Russell Wilson and the Seahawks for 436 yards without a takeaway two weeks ago, things were much better against Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst. But how much of that was the huge step-down in class? I sense that we may see an entirely different Steelers/Bengals game tempo this Sunday than their stodgy 16-10 flow of a month ago, so there is a hint as to the early shopping list..
Item: Was it a 20-0 Kansas City 4th Quarter, or an 0-20 Raiders 4th Quarter?
Sub-Item: Derek Carr had a really, really, really bad end-game
Grading extremes is never easy. One of the other major runs this week was the turnaround by the Chiefs at Oakland, a 14-20 deficit going in to the fourth quarter turning into a 34-20 victory. There is a tendency to want to lay plaudits on Andy Reid and his team as their run goes to 6-0 SU and ATS, the latter category being accomplished by a shocking 98.5 points above the market expectations, but this post mortem requires a deeper dissection of the game.
Oakland opened the fourth quarter ahead by six, and with the ball at the KC 33-yard line, when things began to go badly for Carr. Instead of moving ahead by two scores, which would have forced Alex Smith and the Chiefs offense into a mode that are not adept at, Carr was picked off by Josh Mauga, who returned it 66 yards to the Raider two-yard line. Two plays later the game was tied.
On the next possession Carr and the offense got to midfield, when another pass not only went to a KC defender, this time Marcus Peters, but there was a major runback again, Peters going 58 yards to the Oakland 13. Another two-play drive, another Chiefs TD.
On the next possession Carr and the offense got to the KC 24-yard line, but he got sacked, and then bobbled a snap on 3rd down to lose some key ground, setting up a long FG by Sebastian Janikowski that was missed. When the Chiefs got the ball in their own territory afterwards, it was a quick three-and-out.
On the next possession the Raiders only had the ball for three plays before Carr got intercepted by Tyron Branch, who returned it 38 yards for a TD.
We absolutely credit the KC defense for this cycle, coming up with three takeaways and a sack over 17 plays. They stepped up when they had to. But what about an offense that put 20 points on the board despite only have the ball for seven plays, and gaining just 19 yards, through that stretch? A proper interpretation matters, because while the Chiefs are capable of running the table the rest of the way, the role will now change, with that offense now being placed into the role of being a significant favorite.
Meanwhile measuring the confidence of Carr is also a major issue – perhaps the last place any young QB would want to be off of that kind of disaster is a trip to Denver, and after struggling badly vs. the Bronco defense in the first meeting , his bruised psyche will be on display. Would you like some confidence to take away? It won’t come from this post-game take of Carr’s – "Sometimes things are going to happen. It sucks that it just happened back to back to back like that."
The kind of fourth quarter he had is not something that just “happens”.
We won’t have to wait until Sunday to see some other bruised egos in play…
Item: The Vikings managed to be worse after the game than during (which took some doing)
Minnesota was dreadful on the field against Seattle, but I came away ready to discount large portions of it. The Vikings have three Pro Bowl candidates on defense - NT Linval Joseph, FS Harrison Smith and LB Anthony Barr – and none of them played much part in the proceedings. Joseph was inactive, and both Smith and Barr left with first quarter injuries without returning, the absence of Smith magnified because SS Andrew Sendejo did not play. No defense can afford to lose that kind of talent, especially lacking time to prepare other players to step in to the roles, without suffering dire consequences. But while the performance on that side of the ball gets discounted, the awful showing of the offense does not, nor does the lack of poise that was on display afterwards.
You have likely already read comments from Adrian Peterson about how the Vikings were out-coached (“In so many different ways”), but he was not the only one showing what seemed like a higher level of frustration that was called for. Yes, he wanted the ball more often, but when the defense is being dominated so badly that the offense only had 48 snaps, there were not exactly a lot of opportunities. That did not stop OL Brandon Fusco from offering -
"Every time we end up being one-dimensional on offense, it really makes it hard on Norv (OC Turner) to call a play and just get our offense going. It's not fun when you know you have to pass every play. These are games you don't want to play in. You want to be able to run the ball with the best player in the NFL and just wear a defense out, and we just didn't do that."
Actually they did try to do that – each of the first three Minnesota drives began with runs by Peterson. They just did not accomplish much. All remaining possessions came with deficits of two TDs or more. It was not that the Vikings did not try to run early, they did. Those runs were unsuccessful, and for the game Peterson managed only 2.3 per carry. But it was not just players pointing fingers at coaches, but this take from Mike Zimmer on Teddy Bridgewater’s bad outing - "The (lack of) protection doesn't help. I think he can do a better job throwing the ball, too."
This was not the calm and composed locker room of a team that is still tied for first place in the NFC North at 8-4, and is in a prime position for a Wild Card berth. Perhaps it is a case of expectations getting too high for a bunch that still has a lot of growing to do. But it is something to focus on with that quick turnaround ahead – not only do the Vikings have to get some of those defensive players healthy to be able to compete at Arizona on Thursday, but they need to have their heads on straight. That latter process may prove to be the more difficult one.
Item: Grading those QB "runs"
A question was asked in a recent NFL thread about sorting through running plays, and how attempts by QBs should be handled. For my own charting I have RBs and QBs separate, which also means hand-grading the defenses each week to build up that column on their ledgers as well. The tricky part is that many successful QB runs were not actually runs at all, but instead unsuccessful pass plays in which the QB managed to break the line of scrimmage for positive yardage. They are among the most difficult plays to grade in all of football, and Sunday brought quite a mix.
That 87-yard TD run by Marcus Mariota? It was a designed pass. Yet think of the statistical impact it has, even after 12 full games, on rushing tables –
Without With
Titans Rush Offense 95.7 3.9 102.9 4.1
Jaguars Rush Defense 95.8 3.6 103 3.9
Those are the yards-per-game and yards-per-rush without counting the play, and then with it included. A run that was actually a failed pass shakes things up a bit.
But Mariota’s play was not all – there was also a most unlikely 44-yard TD run by Blaine Gabbert, which created a box score at Chicago in which it looked like the 49ers ran the ball well, 23 carries for 121 yards, but their RBs actually got stuffed, only 46 yards on their 17 attempts. And of course there was that game-turner by Jameis Winston vs. Atlanta, gaining 23 yards on a 3rd-and-19 play with 2:45 remaining, yet another that was actually a failed pass first.
Your process here should be two fold – first creating a separate charting for traditional RB attempts, to have a better feel for a genuine part of the game that matters. Then on to which of the QBs have the ability to consistently make plays with their legs, which certainly Mariota and Winston will do. Gabbert may be more of an outlier, only having had 287 yards in 32 games prior to that burst vs. the Bears.
Is there such a thing as a defense that is more vulnerable to these QB runs? That is a damn good question, and one that is a part of the search. The difficulty is that sample size will not make it a question answered by statistics, but rather one that requires some intricate knowledge of the schemes, and some video study, to properly ascertain.
For some offense, stats are still enough…
Item: Grading Miami’s new offense
Last week there was a take on the coaching shuffle at Miami, a rather odd mix in that Dan Campbell was given the authority as an interim HC to fire OC Bill Lazor, who actually out-ranked him when the season began. The play calling, but not the OC title, was turned over to Zac Taylor, who had actually been the QB coach in Miami two full seasons before Lazor came on board, and it could have been said that he played just as big of a role in Ryan Tannehill not developing. So naturally there was an enhanced focus on watching the Dolphins play on Sunday. And it was not pretty.
First there is the matter that the organization really needs to make a proper hire at HC when this failed campaign is over, because the fans have pretty much checked out -
And Sunday’s offensive performance will certainly not have helped to get more folks into the seats the rest of this season. The Dolphins scored one TD, on a nifty pass from Tannehill to DeVante Parker, but that was a one-play drive after a turnover. The other 10 full possessions produced nine punts and a lost fumble, and outside of the TD strike it was just 181 yards.
I’ll let Armando Salguero from the Miami Herald, who has to watch Tannehill every week (albeit being paid), for a proper summation – “So Campbell is basically managing Tannehill like Tony Sparano managed Chad Henne after the former coach realized Henne wasn’t very good. But despite this careful management, Tannehill completed only 9 of 19 passes. It’s not that he failed to play like a franchise quarterback. He failed to play like a mediocre quarterback.”
Item: The Rams Still Can’t Block
Nothing wrong with letting some of the NFL’s better writers set these stages for us, and after Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch did such a terrific job of grading the Rams OL last week, let’s hand the ball to him again for that task -
There has been some fall-out in St. Louis this week, with Frank Cignetti fired as OC, with Rob Boras being elevated to that title. The question is whether there is anything that Boras can do to get much more out of an offense given the limited abilities of the blockers up front.
Item: If Matt Ryan was 40 years old against Indianapolis two weeks ago…
Then he looked 40 years and two weeks vs. Tampa Bay. The Ryan run over the last three games is now six interceptions and a lost fumble, with a Passer Rating of 87.9 for the full season that is his lowest since 2009. Perhaps the worst part is the particular timing of the INTs, which have come in game-turning situations when the Falcons were in position to win two of those recent games. Now it could get worse instead of better – Ryan will have to take on the Carolina defense twice over the next three weeks, this Sunday facing a group that may be a bit more ornery than usual because of their sloppy showing at New Orleans. For a good take on this being an awkward fit between Ryan and Kyle Shanahan, try this from Jon Breech at CBS Sports.
Vegas: Monday’s with the Review Journal NFL box score page
Sometimes I want a bowl of Menudo, and when that specific craving hits there is almost nothing else that will satisfy, except for a bowl of Pozole as a substitute. Despite the plethora of Mexican eating establishments that have opened across the Las Vegas valley over the past decade neither is easy to find, and that is actually a good thing. Both concoctions come with huge pride elements attached, so if you are going to serve them to our rapidly growing Hispanic audience you have to do it right, or not at all. Doing it right requires time, patience and love, so what you want is a place that focuses on menudo and pozole foremost, and not a restaurant that just happens to have them on the menu. Fortunately, we have El Menudazo. Making menudo and pozole is what they do.
A proper menudo joint must be open early, and they are, at 7 AM seven days a week. Since menudo is considered a hangover tonic, a lot of folks are looking for it to start their day, especially on weekends. I do not join that particular crowd, but it does wonders for the occasional lunch, especially in between Thanksgiving and Christmas, when so much of the dining with friends and family runs the traditional routes, creating the need to step out of the ordinary for the taste buds a bit.
You will not go wrong with the menudo or the pozole here – the broths are continually being made the proper way for each, and there will be times when one or the other is not available, which you take as a good sign – they will not force a bowl if it is not right.
On this visit, while looking through the Eagles/Patriots cycle and knowing that a stint with the play-by-play would be in order when I got back, it was “Menudo Roja”. You will want the medium size because the “grande” could fill a bath tube, and then dress it up to taste, with two different types of hot sauce, dried arbol chiles, fresh cilantro, dried Mexican oregano, chopped onion and a couple of lime wedges to accompany, along with your choice of tortillas (they will bring you a stack of four). As you might expect this is no-frills dining, in yet another mom-and-pop that seats about 25-30 people, but it is service with a smile, and a lot of love being put into those bubbling pots in the kitchen.
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