Point Blank – October 13
The MLB Playoffs – Tuesday Edition
Sure, it was going to be all about pitching this October, and then that happened – the most runs scored in a single playoff day in MLB history, shattering the old mark by 13, and naturally the 21 home runs set a new standard. I am not sure the Over/Under for all four series combined going in would have been 21. But it was a compelling day of baseball.
It started with what will be labeled a meltdown by the Houston bullpen, but which I tended to see more as just a terrific inning of offense by Kansas City, staying patient despite the big deficit and working counts before putting the ball in play. There was absolutely some of baseball’s geometry in play on one particular ground ball, but it was a model of how being patient, and making contact, can set the stage for things to happen. The Royals struck out at a 15.9 percent rate this season, in a sport at which no other team was better than 18.1. There is something to that.
Then there was John Gibbons not only using David Price, but having him throw 50 pitches in a low-leverage setting, which may not allow him to even work in relief on Wednesday. And Price was not good anyway, allowing three runs on six hits over those three frames, mileage that Gibbons could have likely gotten from several others in that bullpen. His explanation sheds no rays of brilliance -
"You know what, things happen fast. I’ve watched enough baseball games, been involved in enough that sometimes the only chance you’ve got to win is to keep the team from coming back in those lopsided games. At that point, too, they started to hold our offense in check. We scored a lot early. The other pitcher was pretty good, which you see a lot, but you score a lot of runs early, all of a sudden you dry up. Next thing you know a team climbs back, so that’s basically what it was."
Or, “next thing you know” you head to a critical Game #5 to determine the outcome of a series, and you do not have your best pitcher available. As for the series, they are tied 2-2 despite Toronto having a +4 run differential, which is pretty much how the Blue Jay regular season went, not maximizing their distribution. And much of that falls on Gibbons.
Those AL series will return on Wednesday, now time to get on to the Tuesday board, with our good friend Eric Strasser (PalmTree Baseball) on hand once again, his quotes appearing in italics throughout the playoffs -
Cardinals/Cubs
The future has moved awfully close to the present for the Cubs, and there were indications of how dominant they have a chance to be in Wrigley if this cast is kept together – seven different players hit HRs, though in the end they needed all of them, with Jake Arrieta wobbling for the first time since early summer. For St. Louis Michael Wacha continued his dismal late-season cycle, and for as fantastic of a ride as the Cardinals have had to this point, there is not much swagger from a team that won 100 regular-season games.
One guy that has more than held his own through the St. Louis return to orbit has been John Lackey, who was superb on Friday, holding the Cubs to just two hits while working into the eight inning, but now the question – even though he only threw 86 pitches at an effective 11.7 PPI, does a guy that turns 37 in 10 days recover well in a short turnaround? He is a battler, but I would be surprised if he brings his best stuff, and with the wind a factor again, there is not much margin for error.
That wind (left to right, and out to right, at 12-15 mpg at first pitch) naturally does not help Jason Hammel either, and Hammel could use a little help – while his final outing at Cincinnati was fine, it was 12 days ago, and it had been a long and uninspiring stretch leading up to that. In a setting in which neither starter will bring the stuff to dominate, and crooked innings can happen, a little Over still works if you can do an 8 at -120 or less. There was a better offering out there earlier today, but still enough value left to be in play if you want to shake out some loose coins from beneath the sofa cushions.
Dodgers/Mets
It was an unexpected offensive showcase at CitiField last night, 26 hits and five home runs, with Matt Harvey settling down after an ugly first inning, but the Dodgers a game away from their season ending and realizing that they did not get much from Brett Anderson or Alex Wood. Attempts to find a #3 behind the Kershaw/Grienke duo simply did not pan out. Time for Eric to take it away on the Tuesday notion, one in which there need not be any hurry, because Kershaw/Dodgers with their backs to the wall will draw some public support -
930 Mets +140. This hasn’t been a close series at all. The Dodgers have had two good innings and the Mets have dominated the rest of the time. Let’s not forget that one of those innings was umpire-aided and should’ve ended without any runs scored.
No need to go through all the platitudes about Kershaw. Today he’s pitching on three days rest, off of 113 pitches, and the Met showed a great game plan against him on Friday night they were able to force him into the strike zone and raise his pitch count.
Steven Matz hasn’t thrown off a major-league mound since September 24, but he has been taking regular turns throwing down in Florida. He’s only made 6 major-league starts but one of those was against the Dodgers in Los Angeles in July, where he shut them out over 6 innings striking out eight and allowing only two hits. The Dodgers are very vulnerable to LHP - Adrian Gonzalez didn’t even start against some lefties in September, Ethier really struggles (look for Yasiel Puig tonight) and Joc Peterson probably sees the bench again. That’s a lot of firepower affected. I haven’t seen enough of Corey Seager against LHP to form a judgment using the eye test.
The Mets game plan should be simple as it was in game one. Just keep it close and get a shot late in the game.
That works, especially if it means getting into the Dodger middle relief. I see as high as +145 available already, and if you can find some +1.5 at -125 or less on the Run Line, you can also make that a portion of your ticket, daring the Dodgers to make things happen against a left-hander, just in case Kershaw does reach back for something extra (he is capable of doing that early; tonight his issue will be sustaining it).
Note that tomorrow the AL games will be woven into the regular Point Blank column.
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