Point Blank – October 12
The MLB Playoffs - Monday Edition
What would be more fitting than MLB playoffs all day on Columbus Day; isn’t baseball one of the best things to emanate from these shores? And there is not a more fun for me to sort through the nuances of our National Pastime than working with good guy Eric Strasster of PalmTree Baseball, who is joining us until the last out of the World Series has been recorded. Eric’s comments will be in Italics as we sort through the bounces of the ball.
Royals/Astros
There is a series play on the Astros a game away from cashing in, and I believe it comes home. The Astros were locked in good against Yordano Ventura at Kansas City last week, stretching him out to 42 pitches across 11 batters, with five hitters reaching base, and three coming around to score. While that was not a deep venture into a game by Ventura, working on three days rest is an issue anyway, putting him out of his usual rhythms, and at 5-11/180 his physical stature may not handle the turnaround well. Meanwhile the Astros only went 8-14 behind Lance McCullers this season, despite his 3.22 allowance that was almost dead-on his 3.26 FIP, making that W/L count among the most inside-out of any pitcher, but that helps to keep this price low. McCullers has dealt to a 1.86 from this mound, with an 0.92 WHIP and terrific K/9 (9.3) and BB/9 (2.3) counts, and got a solid 6-1 win over the Royals back in June in his only appearance against them. Over his last four home starts it has been 30 Ks vs. only two BB, and that makes #926 Houston a value in a setting in which you can lay as low as -124 right now.
Blue Jays/Rangers
The Blue Jays got back into the series with a dominating win last night, one in which they had 14 base-runners vs. only five for the Rangers, but a most unusual cycle in which they hit into double-plays in three straight innings with a runner on third base and less than two outs kept the scoreboard from breaking open. Now they come back for a late afternoon affair, and there is some food for thought in a game in which Eric and I disagree a bit on one point, but come to the same conclusion. My good friend does not like the way John Gibbons has set up his pitching staff -
The game in Texas really confuses me. The Blue Jays have looked tight and nervous from the first inning of game one, but finally seem to exhale after Tulo hit the home run. As I’ve got a small play on the Blue Jays for the series I’m hoping that continues. But John Gibbons is really confusing me. Let’s take a look at these 2015 numbers for RA Dickey:
|
Wins
|
Losses
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
BAA Against
|
Home
|
9
|
3
|
1.04
|
3.11
|
.197
|
Road
|
2
|
8
|
1.39
|
4.83
|
.296
|
I’m sure Jon Gibbons knows all this. He had a chance to set up his rotation to make sure Dickey only pitched in the Rogers Center. He didn’t. But now he’s got two games to win and he may not want to use Marcus Stroman in game five. But pitching Dickey in game four on the road rather than David Price seems like suicide. Price’s splits are fairly innocuous and one can make the argument he’s better away from Rogers center. I’m sure Gibbons wasn’t expecting to be in this position, but he needs to win game four to even get to game five. Giving the ball to RJ Dickey in game four in this situation borders on malpractice in my opinion.
But the Blue Jays still have a chance. We all know what they’ve done against LHP the season, and this is the third straight game they’ll face one. And the quality continues to decline from Hamels to Perez to Holland. Holland faced the Jays once this year in this ballpark and gave up four runs on eight base-runners in six innings.
I am not as harsh on Dickey going here as Eric, with a belief that the randomness of a knuckleball does not lend itself as much to Home/Away considerations (in his first two Blue Jay seasons he actually posted a better ERA on the road), but where I do bring a concern is Dickey not having pitched since September 30. He was on solid form down the stretch, a 2.00 over his last three starts in which he only walked one batter, but has all that gone out the window? It will be the first time the Rangers have seen him this season, which may lead to some awkward early swings, but I would not be surprised if the Blue Jays made short work of Holland, who simply does not match up well, and comes in potentially lacking confidence off of a dismal 8.02 over his last four starts, a span in which he walked 12 batters in just 21 1/3 frames. #928 Over is the call, with some 9.5 at -105 available in the early markets.
Cardinals/Cubs
The National League games this evening are utterly compelling, for all of the various dynamics in play. It never takes much for Cardinals/Cubs to be a frenzied setting, but tonight takes the history of that series to a new level, with some fascinating baseball puzzles. Finding a bet is another matter – while the markets are purchasing the Cardinals this morning off of what may seem like an extravagant line being offered to the team that had MLB’s best regular season record, there are circumstances that keep us away.
First there is the continued brilliance of Jake Arrieta, now in the mode of a Harlem Globetrotter with opposing hitters being reduced to Washington Generals, a run for the ages that seemingly lacks the foundation to continue (he went 20-25/5.46 over 63 starts with the Orioles), yet also shows absolutely no sign of slowing down, four straight shutouts in which he has 38 Ks, vs. only 10 hits and a lone BB allowed.
Then there are the struggles of Michael Wacha, who brings a 17-7/3.38 for the full-season on paper, but is off of a dismal September in which he worked to an ugly 7.88, with 22 BB over 24 IP. As bad as that closing stretch can be for the psyche of a young pitcher, it is made even worse by two of those starts being against the Cubs, losses in which he allowed 10 runs over nine IP, walking seven betters. Off of a long layover, and more than a month since he last pitched well, calling for him to have a strong showing may be comparable to trying to fill an inside straight.
Want the Cardinals at this price point? If the line was based only on games from September 1st on, counting both the team performances and those of the starting pitchers, it would be -280, perhaps even a bit higher. Winning a bet with the underdog may require both the form of Arrieta and Wacha changing, not just one of them.
Dodgers/Mets
If you think Wrigley will be in a frenzy, just wait to turn the sound up when the broadcast begins from Queens, especially if Chase Utley is in the Dodger lineup. It appears that the suspension of Utley’s appeal will not be heard today and that he will be allowed to play, which raises some even more troubling questions about how this has been handled. Imagine Utley contributing a game-winning hit tonight, the Dodgers going on to take the series tomorrow, and then later in the week his suspension being upheld?
As for how to take advantage, there are various facets in play, but here is one thing I hope to not hear from anyone in the comments thread – that the Mets will be charged up to win because of what happened on Saturday. That kind of stuff just does not matter in baseball, where poise and decision-making trump aggression. If anything, bringing too much adrenaline into a game can have a negative effect. The thought that both Eric and I had was that the markets might opt to New York given the major discrepancies in reputations for Matt Harvey and Brett Anderson, but instead of waiting it out for a better price, the line has been trickling down a bit. I will let Eric take it from here -
MLB finally admitted on Sunday what most of us knew on Saturday. Chase Utley’s tackle of Ruben Tejada was illegal and should have been called interference preserving the Mets 2 – 1 lead going to the eighth inning. Of course that didn’t happen and Chris Guccione has worked his last playoff series for a while. No need to rehash that here.
Moving to Monday’s game, there’s some value on the Dodgers at +165 based strictly on the numbers. Matt Harvey has made two starts against the Dodgers this year and they put some excellent and patient at bats on him - 12 innings, 19 base-runners and only an 8/6 K/BB ratio. He’s also only thrown 29 innings in the last 42 days, so his sharpness is a question.
But Brett Anderson’s last month went very poorly. Anderson started playoff games in 2012 and 2013, but I’m not sure he’s ready for what he’s walking into Monday night. He’s not overpowering by any means, but I would expect both pitchers will be warned before the game about throwing at hitters. I don’t think Anderson’s stuff is good enough to get through this lineup a couple of times without being able to go inside. If the line continues to move higher I’ll be making a contrarian play on the Dodgers in the +180 range if it gets there.
The other available option tonight is an Over 6.5, but those are also getting expensive, with -125 becoming the common rate. As always, our mode is to get our numbers or do not play (I would only go small at Over 6.5 -115, and that is not likely to re-appear), but these National League settings are compelling enough to not need a fiduciary interest in order to enjoy.
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