Point Blank – October 2
Trying to Reason with Hurricane Season (you just can’t do it without a little Jimmy Buffet)…We’ll have our own Palm Tree, swaying in the MLB Playoff breeze…Derek Carr gets to play QB against the Bears; the Rangers get to face the road edition of Jered Weaver; the Alabama & Georgia defenses get to face average QBs…
It will not be a question as to “whether weather matters” this weekend, it will be more a case of where and how much. So with that added element in play there is more work to do. The first key, as always, it to calmly process through the information, not trying to over-react, as many in the markets will do, and there is not a better way to come to grips with a major tropical storm than to listen to a little Jimmy Buffet, who has been through more than his share -
Now the details. As of 7 AM Pacific on Friday, it appears that Hurricane Joaquin will fortunately not make landfall on the East Coast of the United States, heading northeasterly across the Atlantic. But it is such a large storm that there will be rain and wind in play across that region. Here are games that have the potential to be impacted:
#112 Georgia Tech/North Carolina
#114 Penn State/Army
#120 Appalachian State/Wyoming
#134 N.C. State/Louisville
#140 Virginia Tech/Pittsburgh
#158 Navy/Air Force
#160 Georgia/Alabama
#164 Duke/Boston College
#204 Wake Forest/Florida State
#206 Maryland/Michigan
#212 Clemson/Notre Dame
#264 Washington/Philadelphia
The NFL played a bit lucky, with the Redskins the only home team in the storm path, but note that game could still be moved to Detroit. If you have already made a bet that would change your ticket to “No Action”, which will naturally be irksome to those with Under 47 in their pockets.
So how about the rest? First note that many of the college games will go at Noon Eastern, with Maryland/Michigan the latest to get moved up. Because predicting the movement of storms and their impact is so difficult, the best advice the rather obvious one of checking updates when you can. A handy one-stop shop can be found here - http://www.wunderground.com/sports/CFB/.
What are you looking for? Wind first, as always. It is going to be strong enough to impact the passing and kicking games at most of the college venues listed. It means a natural advantage to those teams that run better, and stop the run better. But also note that it does to tempo – not only do more running plays lead to a shorter game, but in inclement weather the coaches are often happy to focus on the clock in the second half, especially when the game outcomes are not close. As such, I will be paying extra attention to Army and Wyoming than I ordinarily might; those spreads become even more difficult for a favorite to cover under the circumstances.
Will the markets run some of these games too far? They often do, and it will lead to some judgment calls between now and kickoff. For as bad as the weather may be at Duke, there is actually a 36.5 showing for that Total, nearly the equivalent of a “5” in a baseball game. It was also interesting to see someone turn the Air Force/Navy Total around, some Over money in the Friday morning trading after that line had reached its bottom. But for now it is mostly a waiting game – I will be refreshing the forecasts hourly before pulling triggers, and some of the weather updates will be posted in the post-column thread throughout the weekend.
MLB - Thinking of Palm Trees in those breezes
There is also a weekend of baseball to be played, some of it being scattered because of that weather, so the savvy handicapper can be on the alert to take advantage of lineup situations across those games. Once that settles out it will be playoff time on Tuesday, and this will be a special October for Point Blank readers. One of the best baseball guys around, Eric Strasser, will not have his PalmTree baseball site up during the playoffs, a health issue creating havoc with the timing, but that issue has not impacting his handicapping routine at all, so many of Eric’s ideas will be available here through the World Series. It will not just be his commentary in this column, but also the ability for you to ask him some questions throughout the post-season, in what has a chance to be a unique ride – this is one of those rare times in which every team in the playoffs can legitimately win out.
Friday Fantasy QB
The focus here each Friday will be to look for the best sleeper value at QB on the NFL boards, helping you to maximize at that key spot in order to have more money available for the other positions. This week the call goes to Derek Carr, #17 at FanDuel, and #20 on the DraftKings board. There is a different vibe coming from the Raiders, the addition of Carr, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and Latavius Murray bringing legitimate pieces to the puzzle, and a new coaching regime helping to maximize them. It has been a 50-78-665 the past two weeks for Carr, with five TDs vs. only one interception, and the fact that those games resulted in wins only brings more confidence to the table.
The Bears lack the pieces to turn that form around. The defense has allowed an alarming 123.8 passer rating, with only one interception, and there is not much of a pass rush. Yet in truth it could have been worse because opposing QBs did not have to attack much in the fourth quarter of those games. John Fox will begin building a defense in the draft next season, the selling off of Jared Allen and Jonathan Bostic a clear sign that the future is later, but for now he is forced to play chess with only checkers at his disposal.
In the Sights, MLB…
Some may try to portray Jered Weaver as one of those tough-minded veterans that can rise to the occasion under the playoff pressure to keep the Angels in the Wild Card hunt. In fact, there many be many with that mind-set, given a marketplace that is dealing #972 Texas at -120 in the morning trading. That is difficult to pass up, because the Weaver numbers just do not call for this range at all.
There have been several takes here in the past regarding those Home/Away splits over his declining years, among the widest in the sport, and the bottom line is that someone that has built his career out of surviving fly balls in the west coast ballparks, in particular his home mound in Anaheim, just can not cut it at other venues anymore. This season it is not about falling into a hole on the road, it is about cratering, an atrocious 3-10/6.33 in which he has been touched for 17 HRs over 85 1/3 innings, while only registering 35 strikeouts. The particular splits of those categories tell the tale –
Home Away
K/9 7.0 3.7
HR/9 0.8 1.8
And it is not as though the pennant pressure has made things any better – he has actually fallen off even more down the stretch, an alarming 9.00 allowance over his last four road starts in which he has allowed 31 hits, while registering only 11 Ks. There is little reason to expect this to be the night that changes the patters, and with Huston Street sidelined, and Joe Smith having faced one batter in two weeks, the back-end of the bullpen remains an issue as well.
In the Sights, NCAA…
Sometimes a dark cloud can bring a silver lining. Sometimes a performer can have some game circumstances that lead him to play above his true abilities for a short cycle. Add the together and we get a chance to get involved with #160 Alabama/Georgia Under even after the markets took away the peak point yesterday – I pegged 52 as the go number at the start of the week, and you will find much better than that left out there this morning (Pinny is still at 54).
In failing to cash a Mississippi/Alabama ticket in this spot on the page a couple of weeks ago I pegged the Crimson Tide defense as the nation’s best in terms of North/South football. That is not the way the Rebels attack, but note that outside of a fluky 66-yard TD pass on a broken play, Ole Miss was held to 367 yards on the other 64 snaps. They never did find any running room overland, and that is going to be the Georgia issue here – the Bulldogs run a North/South attack, looking to run with Nick Chubb and stretch the field vertically, and that is not the way to find room against one of the toughest NCAA defensive fronts in many years.
Yet the markets helped us here with a generous line despite the fact that there will also not be much tempo, largely because of the brilliant numbers of Bulldog QB Greyson Lambert the past two games, a historic 33-35 for 476 yards and five TDs. But you have to take that with a grain of salt. Back in the Monday NCAA Review I noted his pedigree, coming to Georgia because he could not win the starting job at Virginia, despite Michael Johns not putting up stiff competition. Lambert simply shapes up as a journeyman surrounded by a great skill cast, which was enough vs. a South Carolina defense that did not fight hard after falling behind, and a Southern team that was simply outmatched. These two games were after Lambert only went 13-25 for 141 yards vs. Vanderbilt, in an outing in which the Georgia offense only scored 17 points (the Dawgs also got TDs on punt and interception returns), and what I believe is a much better measurement of his abilities.
For all of the showy offensive numbers of those last two games, it is the Georgia defense that should be front and center. In their first two SEC contests they have allowed only 584 yards on 147 snaps, and they have the personnel to match up to Jake Coker and the Alabama skill cast, with Coker no guarantee to play any better than Lambert in this environment (the Crimson Tide offense is still a work in progress, only converting two of 13 third downs vs. lowly UL-Monroe last week). It sets this one up as an old-fashioned slugfest, one that will not bring the offensive efficiency, pace, or red zone conversion rate to get to the projection.
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)