Point Blank – September 29
What a “Bettor Better Know” - NFL #3
The week that was in the NFL, one that was not a thing of beauty when it came to watching the offenses perform, and that becomes the theme…
Item: Did Colin Kaepernick play the worst game in NFL history?
Dedicated readers will know by know how much I disdain hyperbole, in a modern media age in which it is rampant, one that has created visions of members of the Washington Generals trying to run a fast break as though they are the Harlem Globetrotters, with many balls ultimately being dribbled off of their own sneakers. I chastise often on that front, and I believe deservedly so. But Kaepernick’s Sunday showing deserves a uniquely decrepit title; he may have indeed turned in the worst performance by a QB, or perhaps any position player, in NFL history.
How about a QB/team having a passing performance in which they averaged a loss of 6.0 yards per pass attempt? That is how my own grading system cranks it out. I have never come across anything even close to that. Part of the negative is factoring in an estimated value of what an interception is worth, and it means that if on the 21 pass plays (19 attempts and two sacks), had Kaepernick simply spiked the ball into the ground, he would have actually raised his team’s total passing output by 127 yards.
Here is how the traditional numbers spell it out: 9-19 for 67 yards, zero TDs, four interceptions (two returned for TDs), and two sacks for -14 yards. Arizona defensive backs had more yards after catching Kaepernick passes (71) than 49er players did. There was not a single completion of longer than 14 yards.
This one goes even beyond the numbers, however. Kaepernick’s two Pick Sixes occurred within the first 6:00 of play, effectively sealing the game before the other players had a chance to compete. It took the heart out of the San Francisco defense so badly that the Cardinals rolled for 446 yards. And despite trailing by at least 24 points throughout the entire second half, when a team playing with a sense of purpose should be able to move the ball and produce through the backdoor, the 49er offense gave away more points than they scored, courtesy of Carlos Hyde being tackled in the end zone for a safety. The leadership at QB was not there for them to keep trying.
Now the big issue – how much can Kaepernick be counted on to ever lead this team to? While Sunday’s performance was epically bad, it is also another mile marker on what has been an ugly gradual slide. If we use DVOA as the model, Kaepernick became one of 17 QBs in NFL history to have their rating in that category decline by at least 9.0 percent two years in a row, with a baseline of at least 200 pass attempts in each season. He is on pace for this year to be the third straight. As truly horrid as he was on Sunday, it is the way that the team around him chose to not compete after those early mistakes that bears watching closely, in what could be a truly dismal season.
Item: The Bears punted on every possession, and still had a better offensive game than the 49ers (Credit John Fox for having a plan)
As noted last here last Wednesday, Jimmy Clausen just does not bring much. And without Alshon Jeffery, the Bears had little chance to stretch the field against a tough Seattle defense on the road. Yet despite getting shut out 26-0 there was an entirely different vibe than what I came away with than when grading San Francisco. John Fox recognized the limitations of his team and had a plan – just dink and dunk and slow the game down as much as possible, and try to keep it close long enough to where a bounce might put them in it. The Bears went into the locker room down 6-0 at halftime, showing no ability to move the ball, but still just a bounce away on the scoreboard.
That “bounce” went the other way, a kickoff return by Tyler Lockett for a TD to open the second half, and that was pretty much that. For the game the Bears had 27 runs, 19 pass plays (includes two sacks), and 10 punts. There was one pass play longer than 10 yards. But to their credit they did not turn the ball over. Note that pacing by Fox, which is likely the path until Jay Cutler returns, although getting Jeffery back this week might allow them to open up at least a little.
Item: The Eagles won a game, but have not solved their issues
Things are much better in the City of Brotherly Love this week, a victory that Chip Kelly and his team had to have to prevent the season from going into an ugly spiral. But not all is well. I have already written about how excruciatingly awful the 49ers were on offense, and how the Bears basically did not even try all that much. So now let’s begin grading the teams for the week based on their yards-per-play output:
#32 – 49ers 3.1
#31 – Bears 3.2
#30 – Eagles 3.4
Yes, the Eagles won a game, and Ryan Mathews did bring more spark than DeMarco Murray overland. But the passing game was again a failure, Jordan Matthews the only WR to catch a ball in an outing in which the 29 drop-backs produced just 108 yards. Until Sam Bradford gets comfortable in these packages it is not just about efficiency, but also pace as well – it was a 24.9 Seconds Per Snap (SPS) on Sunday, three full seconds slower than the 21.9 they played at last year. If they are not able to play fast, notions of wearing the opposing defense down goes out the window, and that was most evident on Sunday, when they failed to score a point against the Jets in the second half. Of course, going fast is not necessarily the path either if you do not have the tools…
Item: The Texans have been on a Road to Nowhere, Fast
There has been one pace story that has been a helluva surprise so far, a rather disjointed Houston offense that has two mediocre QBs having started, yet Bill O’Brien having them deal at an absolutely frenetic pace. How about a 19.9 SPS through three games, a full two seconds fast than what the Eagles set to lead the NFL in 2014, and four seconds quicker than the fastest team in the pre-Kelly 2012 season? And what do the Texans have to show for their 241 offensive snaps, 30 more than any other team? Six touchdowns. It has resembled a Chinese Fire Drill at times in terms of inefficiency, so how about a musical interlude to create the proper image in your minds -
The David Byrne collaborations with St. Vincent have produced some terrific moments. I dare you to only watch that once.
Ryan Mallett has a passer rating of 69.9, Brian Hoyer was at 72.7 before being demoted, and Alfred Blue is leading a ground game that is cranking it out at just 3.8. Did you want to play fast with this bunch? I am not sure if O’Brien believes that getting his plays in quicker is actually a way to get more out of dismal talent than would otherwise be the case, and have continually looked for his own comments to gain some clarity, but they have been hard to come by. What the pace has produced in reality was an 0-2 that had them in a semi-desperate setting on Sunday, and while they did finally emerge with that 19-9 win there were only two TDs scored out of 86 snaps. Will this change when Arian Foster returns? Logic would seem to dictate that, but Foster is likely to sit out one more game. So instead there is some head scratching about that pace, because in reality it did not win the game for them; a case can be made that one particular Tampa Bay player had an unusually large impact on the outcome…
Item: Kyle Brindza is still a Buccaneer this morning
I thought Brindza was on his way to the waiver wire yesterday; a kicker does not miss three FGs and a PAT and expect to remain in uniform. But despite those momentum-killing misses that played a key part in the game flow (although the final miss may have been taxing his range a bit), the rookie from Notre Dame is still the Tampa Bay kicker, according to Lovie Smith – “Kyle is our kicker. He, like a lot of us, had a disappointing day. That hasn't been the case (previously). You're going to have off days, and this was an off day.”
The key is to make sure that you note those misses, since it is a part of the box score that many do not get all the way to.
Item: The Cowboy offense turned into a pumpkin at halftime
For as hideous as Kaepernick was; as inept as the Bears sleepwalked through the Pacific northwest; as impotent as the Eagle passing game remains, and as much spinning of their wheels as the Texas did; the Dallas offense was worse than all of them in the second half on Sunday. It provides a case study in which a game really must be split into halves for a proper understanding of what went on, and a better way to grade them going forward.
I will be writing about Brandon Weeden’s horrific interception again tomorrow, so I do not want to belabor that point too much, but it does raise a question as to just how much game flow he turned around with that mistake. It came when the Cowboys were up 21-7 and seemingly in control of the proceedings, so how much was that momentum turning, and how much had to do with being tactical adjustments by the Falcons? After getting pushed around badly by the Dallas offensive line in the first half, it was a shocking turnaround by that defense.
Of course, there is also that pendulum aspect of Weeden, Joseph Randle and that Bryant-less WR corps being who they are. Weeden was 13-14 for 164 yards in the first half, but only managed 68 yards the rest of the way. Of his 22 completions, 18 went to a TE or a RB, with Chad Beasley the only WR to catch a pass. Randle exploded for a shocking 85 yards on his first three rush attempts, but his last 11 netted just two yards. In the second half the Cowboys were minus-4 yards rushing.
Of course there is a Catch 22 in breaking down that game-closing 25-0 Atlanta run. The Dallas offense did not get many chances because the defense was allowing the Falcons to move the ball at will, but that Cowboy defense also wore down because when their own offense got the ball they could not move it.
Item: The Buffalo offense tried to turn into a pumpkin at halftime; the Dolphins would not let them
A Miami defense that I thought had a chance to be among the NFL‘s upper tier this season had another dreadful Sunday, once again players not being where they should be far too many times through a lack of discipline. And what projected as perhaps the league’s best pass rush with that Suh/Wake/Vernon trio leading the way has now failed to register a sack, or force a turnover, over 129 snaps the last two games. What they gave up early was alarming, but what they gave up late may have been even more so, the Bills getting TDs on a 38-yard pass from Tyrod Taylor to Chris Hogan and a 41-yard run by Karlos Williams in the fourth quarter when they were not trying all that hard to score, more content to watch the clock tick down than their points go up. Did the Dolphins give it up because they gave up?
The post-game comments shed much light on it, a case of decent talent either not fitting because of personal styles, or a group simply being out-schemed. From safety Michael Thomas – “It’s shocking because we know what we are capable of. We’ve got a lot of playmakers. We know we can play better than this … We have a lot to fix, and we have to fix it quick.” From fellow safety Reshad Jones – “I don’t know what it is right now. We just have to watch the film and figure out how to get better from it.”
There were indeed mistakes made early, which enabled the Bills to bolt to that 27-0 halftime lead. Mistakes can be corrected if the players bring the heart and the focus. But given that lack of intensity in the fourth quarter, are those elements even in play? A jumbled practice week ahead, altered by the long flight to London, will not help, and with a bye week to follow, Joe Philbin’s job security at the top is tenuous. And while DC Kevin Coyle is less likely to be dismissed, he does not show a great command of the situation right now – “I’m disappointed but I’m mostly disappointed in myself. I’ve got to do a better job getting those guys in the right spots … I don’t think we’ve shown our identity yet to be quite honest.” For a team to have not shown their identity by the end of September is Coach-Speak, of course; after three games what you have shown is your identity. The passport identifying the Dolphin defenses as they head through customs this week is not a flattering one.
Item: Power Rating Drew Brees
One of the ideas that was focused on in breaking down the NFL QB injuries last week was that Brees was simply not playing all that well. My anticipation was that “The “Brees-in” line was going to be around Carolina -3.5, if he can’t go expect to see -7.5 or -8.” The market reaction was much different, with Carolina -10 commonly available on game-day.
The status of Brees for this week is not known yet, but you have to wonder if the performance of Luke McCown vs. the Panthers might have Sean Payton err on the side of giving his veteran QB another week to get back to full health. The Saints had 27 first downs and 380 yards at Carolina, McCown overcoming the lack of a ground game (2.9 per rush on 24 carries) to go 31-38 for 310 yards, with one interception, and one sack that did not cost the team a yard. Here was Payton’s take after that performance, when asked about how the game plan had to be altered –
"I don't know that it changed drastically. I said during the week there were a lot of things functionally that he does just like we would do with Drew. We wanted to come in and run the football. I thought early on we had some success running and then maybe it wasn't as efficient later on in the game, but you set up some of the play action plays. He handled it well. He did a great job."
McCown’s numbers were surprisingly good. But do they also reflect that the transition from Brees to him may not be what the markets were calling it - not so much because of McCown’s abilities, but that the offense had under-performed with Brees? Plenty to think about, as the news out of New Orleans gets followed closely this week.
Vegas: Monday’s with the Review-Journal
After watching some of those wretched offensive performances on Sunday, and knowing that the cold print of the box scores would only make some of them look even worse, I decided to treat myself while having to sort through the detritus of that ugliness. So the Review-Journal box score page got spread out for the first time at Chada Street (3839 Spring Mountain Road) the newly-opened sister property of Chada. Chada was featured in this space back during the NCAA Tournament in March, when a carry-out of about half of the menu got me through the first two rounds, and the new location is what the name sets it out to be – an exploration of Thai street food.
The Chada properties come from the inspiration of Bank Atcharawan, who was the long-time sommelier at iconic Lotus of Siam, considered by many to be among the best Thai restaurants in the United States. His father operated a Thai restaurant in southern California for many years. The original Chada remains a favorite, but is not open for lunch, so Chada Street fills that timing void, and does it with flair.
The flavors and spicing are dynamic and straightforward – these are dishes as close to their originals in Bangkok street markets as possible, with no compromise for the western palate. And since I wanted to relieve the pain of seeing the name “Kaepernick” in print, I needed a counter-balance on this day. To start it was a classic “Nam Prik Noom”, a bold fresh green chile dip accompanied by lightly blanched vegetables, a hard-boiled egg, and crisp fried pork skin for dipping. A healthy way to begin a week except for the chicharron, but that is food for the soul.
And because I knew that I was going to have to read that the Bears had 477 punting yards, and 146 offensive yards, I followed it up with a “Sen Mee Kang Pou”, a crab curry served with rice noodles that hits my taste buds in a way that it would make any short-list for my favorite dishes in Las Vegas. It is a brilliant balancing of flavors, the complex curry bringing out the sweetness of the crab, instead of overpowering it; the crab allowing the various nuances of the curry to come to life. You will get three nests of noodles with each order, and if they have not sopped up every drop, there will be an inclination to lick the bowl if no one is watching. It is that damn good.
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