Point Blank – September 23
Breaking down the NFL QB shuffles…And then a detour to The Plain (is Gus Malzahn feeling more pressure than he should?)…Sometimes you have to be Brave(s) to win in September…
Quarterbacks come front and (behind) center today, with some major adjustments already having been made, and some more on the way soon. It has already provided some headaches for Nevada operators, who prefer to have every NFL game on their printed parlay cards, and we will see later today which were brave enough to put something out on New Orleans/Carolina and Denver/Detroit (not easy to send out a card that does not include the Sunday night game).
There was also an intriguing shuffle in the college ranks as well, a rarity of a guy that started the season with Heisman Trophy price being attached next to his name in the betting circles now being benched before the calendar turns to October. It bears a look into. But first for the Sunday gang…
CHICAGO – Jay Cutler/Jimmy Clausen
Jay Cutler will likely miss two games with a strained hamstring, which forces Clausen into the starting role, with David Fales promoted from the practice squad to serve as the #2. Some will propose this as a possible audition for Clausen in front of John Fox, but this will actually be a re-run for the new Bears HC, with Clausen going 1-9 for him as a starter with Carolina in 2009. Clausen just does not bring any upside, lacking the arm strength to stretch defenses, and note that five of his completions after entering the game on Sunday were quick screens. He threw an interception and was sacked twice.
For the Bears it is unfortunate because they do have weapons – Matt Forte can be a force, Alshon Jeffery (who should return this week) and Martellus Bennett provide big targets, and Eddie Royal can work the underneath routes. But Clausen is among the weakest #2 QBs in the NFL, and may not have the tools to get the ball to those playmakers. Expect a whole lot of dink-and-dunk, something that is not easy to execute in the environment the offense will face in Seattle.
DALLAS – Tony Romo/Brandon Weeden
There are a variety of issues in the adjustment here. First there is the matter of Weeden stepping in to an offense that did not bringing in significant replacements for DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant, which means a much tougher transition. The questions about the Joseph Randle/Darren McFadden RB rotation have not brought back favorable answers so far, those two combining to average 3.3 per carry. Meanwhile when Romo was on the field they could not score a TD against the Eagles, and Devin Street caught one pass. Of the 25 pass completions, 16 went to RBs or TEs.
This is putting a lot on the shoulders of Weeden, a journeyman without upside, who has more interceptions (28) than TD passes (27), as part of a 73.4 career passer rating. He can be serviceable when surrounded with good talent, but he is not at the other skill positions right now, although the talented OL will buy him some time in the pocket. What should you expect to see? I am going to put the focus more on pace than efficiency – the Cowboys were #32 in offensive pace last year, and are sitting at #30 through two games this season. Slow is about to become slower. As for efficiency, I rated the Cleveland skill players the NFL’s worst before the season began, but the current Cowboys are not far below.
Now issue #2, might it be Matt Cassel instead? Not this week because of the limited amount of ramp-up time. Is he better than Weeden? Over time, I would say yes, but it is not by a huge margin, especially with Weeden’s experience in the Dallas system. But should the offense have an ugly outing vs. Atlanta, do not be surprised if it becomes an open competition next week.
DETROIT – Matthew Stafford/Dan Orlovsky
The Lions will be holding on to hope that Stafford can go but the sequence is awkward – he is dealing with bruised ribs, which need time to heal, and has to face the aggressive pass rushes of the Broncos and Seahawks the next two weeks. Giving him a week off might be the best answer, yet it also brings the riks of opening in an 0-3 hole.
The good news for sub-journeyman Orlovsky is that if he has to go, there are veteran weapons outside in Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. The bad is that the Lions have not been able to run the ball a lick, and that part of their arsenal has been so weak that play action is not going to slow the Denver pass rush down at all. Ameer Abdullah, a decent prospect, had a memorable NFL debut, his first carry going for a 24-yard TD at San Diego. All other attempts by RBs have produced only 59 yards at 2.4 per carry, and in Sunday’s dubious showing at Minnesota, Stafford had more rushing yards (20) than all RBs combined (13), with the RBs managing 1.2 per attempt vs. a relatively unimposing Viking front. You can find a good breakdown on Sunday’s woes from Justin Rogers at mlive.com.
NEW ORLEANS – Drew Brees/Luke McCown
This is tricky for the markets, because in truth Brees has not been playing anywhere near his past levels. It is a combination of age catching up with him, and also losing Jimmy Graham, who created so many possibilities for that offense. The overall picture for the team is also rather glum – since the middle of the 2014 season it has been a 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS slide, falling to the spread by an unsightly -109.5 across those games, a significant market misread of 11 points per game.
Sooner or later there will have to be a transition, and it will not be an easy one, because this offense has been built around the particular skills of Brees. It is also likely that the replacement is not on the roster. You may get a positive indication if Sean Payton turns to Garrett Grayson, who showed some promise in the pre-season, but against a tough defense on the road it is more likely to be the veteran Luke McCown. McCown offers experience but no upside, having hung around the league since 2004, and going 2-7 over nine starts. This is his third season with the Saints, so he knows the playbook and the personnel, but he has also only thrown one pass in a game. The “Brees-in” line was going to be around Carolina -3.5, if he can’t go expect to see -7.5 or -8.
And now to the college ranks…
AUBURN – Jeremy Johnson/Sean White
Auburn has been a disappointment across the board, with the defense not looking much better under Will Muschamp than their predecessors, and the running game also failing to gain traction. Those issues were not unexpected, however, with the hope being that Johnson and the passing attack could make enough plays while the other aspects developed. That did not happen. Johnson has lost his job by having more interceptions (6) than TD passes (5), and in general not looking comfortable in an offense that needed him to be the catalyst. His 72 pass attempts only produced 473 yards.
New starter Sean White has a solid pedigree – he was rated among the top 10 QB recruits by just about all services in 2013, and was MVP of the Under Armour All-American game. But there are a couple of valid questions – first being one that was written about here concerning Johnson earlier, and whether Gus Malzahn was going to be comfortable having him keeping the ball on read-option plays to put the defense on their heels. That was not happening, which takes a lot away from this playbook, and White may not change that. The other aspect is one of timing.
Auburn hosts Mississippi State on Saturday, in a key SEC showdown. After that San Jose State will travel over for a paycheck, and then the Tigers have a bye week. Might there have been an easier transitional cycle ahead than starting White vs. this class of opponent? A start vs. San Jose, a bye, and a start vs. Kentucky would have been a much easier way to break him in.
Does this timing tell us that Malzahn was truly dissatisfied with Johnson, because the QB had no part in Auburn’s defense being bludgeoned for 411 rushing yards at a frightening 8.6 per attempt, or that the pressure of being the head man at this University sometimes can force an action to be taken? Auburn has lost four straight SEC games, by a combined 65 points, and the fans in the “loveliest village of the plain” (can any of you name the reference without looking it up?) are not the most patient bunch.
Survivor Pool – Week #3
I don’t have to do this anymore. Perhaps that is a break, so that time can go to other matters, but it was an early bow-out that was easy to take – not only did MIAMI fail, but my #2 option would have been New Orleans, so there is no second-guessing. The large fantasy pool that I was in has had a 92% elimination rate already, and a popular Yahoo contest reported 87% getting eliminated last week alone.
There is a reason to still write this week, however – if you are a survivor to this point, you are allowed to change your stripes a bit. Because so many pools have been depleted, there is nothing wrong with thinking more short-term than long term, and putting your focus on the most likely winner of a given week, rather than laying out a scheduling grid to maximize your remaining teams. It is possible that merely being alive on Halloween may be enough to win, which can change your methodology.
In the Sights…
The Mets have been out-scored by 21 runs in the eight games on this home stand. Despite flashes of brilliance, Bartolo Colon has been a slightly below average pitcher this season. It does not add up to a package that should be laying more than two dollars, and with the Braves and Williams Perez bringing some life to the table, #903 Atlanta is one of those nice late-season fits that will pay off well. You do not want to invest a lot here, but you do not need to for a nice return.
Colon needs to be able to fool batters in order to be successful, but this will be the second look for Atlanta in a span of two weeks, and note that when the Marlins were given a similar setting in his last outing they beat him. Over his last three starts it has been 23 hits allowed vs. only six Ks, and at 182 1/3 innings into the season, a guy that turned 42 several months ago is entitled to run low on fuel. Meanwhile there is no sex appeal from the Braves or Perez, but they have won four of their last five games to create a little energy in the dugout, and Perez has kept competing, with a 2-0/2.89 over his last three starts that show signs of command developing – 15 Ks vs. only four BB in that span. A ticket with about a third of a unit of the Braves outright, and a third on the Run Line, brings opportunity at the going rate of return.
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