Point Blank – September 21
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #3
Item – How do you grade the Alabama/Mississippi defenses after that?
In turning an Under ticket in the Ole Miss/Alabama showdown, I detailed the merits of what I believed were the two best defenses in the country. So what happens to the ratings after 80 points got to the scoreboard? Would you believe nothing? As difficult as it might appear on the surface, the two defenses were actually pretty darn good on Saturday night.
If you are going to downgrade the Rebels for allowing 29 first downs and 503 yards, which are the usual quick-glance measurements, don’t. That is what is going to happen when you are on the field for 100 plays. That is correct, 100. That is about 33 percent more than what the projection would have been, so in the back of your mind instead of 29 and 503, think 19 and 335, and how does that feel? Much different, isn’t it. But in this case there is even more.
There were 43 offensive snaps in the fourth quarter, with the Rebel defense on the field for 36 of them. That is an exhausting load, which exacerbated the fatigue notions. From 10:02 to 4:33 there were 21 offensive snaps, all by the Crimson Tide. Yet having to play through that in a difficult environment against a talented opponent, Ole Miss allowed 5.0 per play for the game. In 2014, only 24 teams allowed less than 5.0 over the course of the season.
As for the Alabama defense, the Crimson Tide literally made one major mistake the entire game, the 73-yard TD pass from Chad Kelly to Cody Core early in the fourth quarter. The earlier 66-yard pass TD from Kelly to Quincy Adeboyejo that sped up the pace in the third quarter was an absolute fluke of football, something that goes into the record books for all times as a play having merit, and will clog data bases well into this season. Take that play away and what was the Rebel production? 15 first downs and 367 yards. That is a solid showing vs. the weapons that Ole Miss has.
There could be some opportunities going forward because of that scoreboard, and especially the frenetic pace – these are still the two best defenses in the nation, and Saturday night provided a rarity, 80 points hitting the board despite the defenses actually acquitting themselves well.
Item: How do you grade the Ohio State offense after that (where have you gone Tom Herman)?
A good exercise to do each week, and one that does not take all that much time, is to make market projections for the points that are expected to be scored, by each team. The formula is simple, just take the Side and Total and extrapolate, so that you can itemize where the markets might be getting a team wrong. Like an offense projected to be the best of all – Ohio State. Two weeks ago the Buckeyes closed at -42.5 and 65.5 vs. Hawaii, the expectation a 54-11.5 win being called for. The offense only scored 31, with the defense contributing a TD. This past Saturday it was -34 and 68 vs. Northern Illinois, a 51-17 projection. The offense managed 13, the defense producing have of the TD count. Needless to say reality has not matched perception, despite the Buckeyes not being challenged by big time defenses (Northern Illinois allowed 30 points, 28 first downs and 493 yards to UNLV). Over 148 snaps in those two games, they have been limited to 4.5 per play, and this from a group that would boast four Heisman Trophy candidates (Braxton Miller, Ezekiel Elliott, J. T. Barrett and Cardale Jones), if they all played for different teams.
How does that kind of talent stall so badly? There are the natural issues of not having settled in on one particular player at QB, which can bring cohesion problems, but perhaps most of all is that impeccable sense of timing and rhythm they had in last season‘s dramatic late run gone missing. In rolling past Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon the offense was consistently a step ahead of the opposition, and the ball was seamlessly going to the right places to maximize that talent. But did Tom Herman take much of that with him when he left for Houston?
Herman is a creative offensive mind, one of the brightest around. And while current OC Ed Warinner served alongside Herman jointly in the role the last couple of seasons, in 20 of his 23 campaigns as an assistant coach, Warinner has been working with the OL. Is it possible that he and Urban Meyer are struggling to develop the proper feel for handling this group? Here is how the HC labeled it after Saturday’s sluggish showing - "Number one, we've got to give our players the right stuff at the right time to give them a chance and then they have to execute it. We have a long way to go, coaching and playing."
That may sound like typical Coach-speak, but I believe it. Meyer has consistently surrounded himself with creative offensive minds (never underestimate the impact Dan Mullen had at Bowling Green, Utah and Florida), but that may not necessarily be the case this time. Herman has been both a QB coach and an OC, and for all of the talent that Jones and Barrett possess, they both lack experience. Herman may have gotten far more out of them than what perhaps should have been last season, and not having him around to develop them through spring and fall practice may legitimately be a big factor in the regression of this offense. While the markets may continue to ask for them to play at the level they did in that dramatic championship run, they are nowhere near that right now.
Item: SMU 37 TCU 42 at 7:00 in the 4th quarter; SMU 21 BAYLOR 28 at 5:00 in the 3rd quarter
I was supposed to bet SMU vs. TCU on Saturday, and did not. The handicap was compelling, but there was also the bitter memory for TCU of how the Playoff positioning laid itself out last year, and there was a discussion I had with a long-time college football expert on that front – with Baylor having ultimately beaten the Mustangs by 35 points, would that become a target for Gary Patterson and his team, so that their would not be an unflattering comparison vs. Baylor sitting out there? I passed, and missed a game in which the Horned Frogs never had a chance to cover.
So while on the subject of measuring the impact of coaching changes, let’s go right to Chad Morris for the stunning turnaround at SMU. Not only have they shaken off that horrific 2014 with much better organization and energy, but how about a tip of the cap for the way that Morris went out and had his Mustangs attack aggressively against those uptempo powers from the Big 12? In 2014 it was a timid 101-0 defeat vs. those opponents, and while some may say it is scoreboard suicide to go fast vs. the Bears and Horned Frogs, which it turned out to be as the Mustangs gassed out late, by allowing his team to play with abandon, Morris may have done wonders for their confidence as they step down in class. That is worth watching. His post-game takeaway showed plenty of savvy - "There are winners and there are learners. We were learners tonight. This is a much improved football team with the toughest first three games in the country, but I'm proud of our guys. Those guys are hurting tremendously right now as our coaching staff is. We're going to control what we can control and learn and move forward."
It helps, of course, to have a catalyst, and Morris certainly has one in Matt Davis at QB. Davis has already piled up 969 yards of total offense, 667 through the air with five TDs, and also 302 overland with four more scores. He should be a lot of fun to watch the rest of the way, stepping down in class against AAC defenses. Much of the Morris aggressiveness may have been because of confidence in his young QB, and when a coach has confidence in his leader on the field it means the options to try a lot of different things. Someone else in Texas is also dealing with that now…
Item: Of course you can keep liking Jerrod Heard, but there is more to it…
Last week in the Monday column I became a charter member of the Jerrod Heard fan club, but this is not going to be a case of patting myself on the back; instead it is to be watching closely as the Texas season unfolds an the dramatic shifting of game pace. Part of why the focus went to Heard last week was that his showing vs. Rice could have easily been missed, given how bizarre that box score was. So the question became just how Charlie Strong, whose teams have played to some of the nation’s slowest tempos in his years as a head coach, would manage the flow with Heard. To best utilize him is to go fast, and put as much pressure as possible on opposing defenses. That is what Strong chose to do vs. Cal.
Texas had 81 offensive snaps vs. the Golden Bears, generating for 651 yards. Much of that came from the dynamic Heard, who accounted for 527 and three TDs, including that dramatic 45-yard late run that would have tied the score, had the PAT been converted afterwards. The downside of the pace is that a young defense is going to be overmatched often, especially in the Big 12, but that is why the microscope comes out. Saturday’s game sailed Over the Total by 31 points, and if Strong decides to play fast with his current roster, there may be more of that ahead. If he were to do the same thing as Morris, play hard and fast now, to accentuate the long-term development over short-term results, it may indeed be the right thing to do. In the meantime, enjoy Heard, who has a chance to be special. And then be on the look-out for someone else using tempo to long-term advantage, despite potential short-term headaches…
Item: Philip Montgomery & Tulsa, and more setting the template with tempo
Let’s stay with the notion of tempo and team development here, because there was another setting on Saturday that brought it to the forefront – Montgomery and his job of rebuilding Tulsa. The Art Briles protégé is all about playing fast on offense, and that could be a terrific fit for this program – there are 37 players on the roster from the state of Texas, and by playing an exciting brad of the sport Montgomery can tap into that state, grabbing some of the B+ players that were just a half inch short, or a few pounds too light, for the SEC or the Big 12.
Like the Chad Morris take above, Montgomery faced a challenge vs. Oklahoma – playing fast would absolutely expose his defense, and open the door for things to get ugly. But he chose to go after it, and it was an extremely positive outcome in terms of building the program, the Golden Hurricanes competing well in a 52-38 loss.
Yes, the defense was indeed overmatched, allowing 40 first downs and 753 yards. In that regard Montgomery owes co-DCs Bill Yong and Brian Norwood big-time for what he put them through. But the offense had a terrific game, not just in rolling up 603 yards, but in not having a single turnover in 91 snaps. A high school QB or WR seeing films of that game might be inclined to matriculate to the Tulsa campus. The question over time will be whether or not they can bring some guys in that will play a little defense. By the way, that is already a question for Bob Stoops this season – his Sooners have only come up with two takeaways in 236 opposing snaps so far, something that is worth following going forward.
Item: Why not Keenan Reynolds in the Heisman Trophy mix (hey, Roger Staubach won one)?
Almost matching Tulsa in the number of snaps without a turnover was Navy in that 45-21 rout of East Carolina, the Midshipmen taking their first-ever conference game in style. With Keenan Reynolds running the show it was 82 plays without giving the ball away, amassing 415 rushing yards, and be prepared to see a lot of that type of flow this season. Reynolds is a master of running the option packages that are a way of life at the Academy, so much so that he is on the way to setting the all-time NCAA record for rushing TDs (he is at 70 now, with 77 by Montee Ball the target). And while it may be a stretch to get him into the Heisman picture, it is my way of drawing attention to how big of a handicapping factor he can be.
Here is the way Reynolds spoke about the offense after Saturday’s win – “Just execution. If all 11 guys are in accord when we run the offense, it’s poetry in motion, so it speaks volumes.” There are two keys in having such a talented and experienced QB running the show that will have Navy coming close to maximizing the potential on offense – there are going to be TDs, not FGs, in the red zone, and turnovers will be at a bare minimum. And you can add another element that will actually show up in the box score by not showing up in the box score – penalties. Over Ken Niumatalolo’s 7+ seasons at Annapolis, the Midshipmen are #1 in the NCAA for both fewest number of penalties, and fewest penalty yards. They are fundamentally sound and will not beat themselves, and the savvy and experience that Reynolds brings to the offense takes it all to a higher level.
Navy will not play with a lot of flash this season, but will grind away with a high level of efficiency. Sometimes that subtle grinding gets overlooked. What is happening in Chapel Hill these days is another example…
Item: Gene Chizik’s impact at North Carolina
In North Carolina’s first two lined games, the Tar Heels have allowed a combined 31 points to South Carolina and Illinois. In 2014, the Carolina defense allowed more than 31 points in a single game nine times. They did not hold any opponent to less than 20 points last year, yet have already done that twice (I do not give much consideration to the 53-14 blowout of out-manned North Carolina AT&T, when they backed off after leading 53-0 in the middle of the third quarter). Welcome back to the sidelines, Gene Chizik.
In 2014, the Tar Heels set single-season records across the board – most points allowed, most yards allowed, and perhaps the most dubious of all, the yardage counts being the all-time worst for the program vs. both the run and the pass. It was a train wreck, and it brought the obvious question of just how much improvement could be made in a single season. Yet it has been a major turnaround rather quickly, and unlike the fireworks produced by guys like Morris and Montgomery with their programs, at Carolina it has been old school. Chizik put the major off-season focus on the simple fundamentals of gap control and tackling, instead of attacking opponents, which was the 2014 model, one that crashed repeatedly.
Chizik scrapped the 4-2-5 for a more traditional 4-3, and spelled it out this way shortly before the season began – “When you see missed tackles, a lot of it is related to them being out of position to make it. If you’re doing your job and you’re where you’re supposed to be, that exponentially improves your chances to bring them down.”
One of the keys, of course, is getting the players to buy in, and that is where the Chizik resume is so important. As the DC at Auburn, he helped lead the Tigers to a 13-0 campaign in 2004, when they were #5 in the nation in Total Defense. He went on to win a National Championship both as a DC with Texas, and then as the Auburn head man. Championship rings certainly get the attention of the players in the defensive huddle, and the fact that there have been a pair of solid showings so far makes it even easier for them to buy in going forward.
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