Point Blank – September 17
NFL Marketology 101 – Broncos/Chiefs…Will Rutgers get “Lost in the Flood” (if it’s a Jersey story, why not a little Bruce in the background)…When the Red Zone becomes a Dead Zone…
There is not a more quotable guy in the Las Vegas betting world than Jimmy Vaccaro, and while the trite cliché that someone has “seen it all” is absurdly over-used, because is an impossible definition to live up to, through Jimmy’s years behind the counter he has come awfully damn close; perhaps as close as anyone ever involved in the game. One of his classic phrases was “The public bets teams, the pros bet numbers”, and in the early part of any football season I should go out of my way to focus on that notion. Tonight’s Denver/Kansas City clash provides the ideal opportunity.
For so many folks that bet regularly, the process is about handicapping the game, projecting an outcome, and then wagering that the projection is sound. That might appear to be a logical path to success, but it isn’t. Some will do that their entire lives, never quite getting over the hump, but the fact that a sharp market brings many of the pointspreads within a hiccup of 50-50, they will never run so badly that they recognize the need to change course.
Here is the issue – while handicapping the game result might seem like such a proper path, that is also the very thing that the oddsmakers are doing. Without acknowledging the processes that bunch is sorting through there is little chance to win in the long run. Laying 11/10 by using the same info to beat the line that has already been built into the line brings little chance for success.
Which takes us to tonight at Arrowhead Stadium. Based on what has been written in this column about Peyton Manning, you might think that I would be looking to the Chiefs, or to the Under. The game handicap certainly would show that the Bronco passing game is not what it has been. That is not a secret, however, and the markets have certainly incorporated it in the current trading levels. So let’s use the “layering” concept written about here last Thursday, and apply it to this series since Andy Reid came to Kansas City. By layering, it means looking at what the line would have been adjusted to on a neutral field, taking three points away from the home team (the home team for each game is in CAPS).
2013 DENVER 4 49
2013 denver 9 49.5
2014 DENVER 8.5 50.5
2014 Denver 2 49
2015 KC Pk 42
A better reference for tonight might be the Chiefs -120, shaded a bit above pick’em. You can see quite a shift, with the average line of those last four meetings having been moved six full points for this evening, while the average total has been reduced by slightly more than a full TD. Should I be attempting to play against the Broncos, or play the game Under, based on their current issues, would I be betting at an edge, or would I simply be setting myself up to get ground out by the vig? That is where understanding the marketplace begins.
Could a case be made that the adjustments might even be going too far? That is where layering works in the college ranks, settings in which there is far too much weight being put on recent results, instead of how team teams have actually done against each other head to head. That aspect is rather interesting tonight – Denver won those four 2013-14 meetings by a combined 37 points, no victory coming by less than seven. It means that the 50-50 plateau currently being projected is for the Chiefs to have turned this series around by 10 points.
Instead of thinking of this as an opportunity to exploit the Denver passing game, is there a counter that now says taking a Broncos defense that may be the NFL’s best, into an KC offense that will struggle to be much more than average, at +3 or better represents an opportunity? That is what the market is all about; they take away, yet when they do that they sometimes give. When you move your processes beyond handicapping the game outcome, to also reading carefully what the markets are presenting in terms of opportunity, then you have made a major step forward, and this matchup provides a prime opportunity to think through that issue.
Will Rutgers get “Lost in the Flood”
When Tim Beckman was dismissed at Illinois it was a feature topic here two weeks ago, pondering whether it might actually prove to be a plus for the team. Now comes a rater unique situation, Rutgers suspending HC Kyle Flood for the next three games, and also fining him $50K. So the purpose here is two fold, to ponder the impact it will have on the team, and also be able to play with the words as an excuse for a musical interlude.
You will hear a lot of Springsteen on this page, with much method behind it. Listen to the intensity behind that version from a 2009 show in Buffalo, then consider that the song was released on album in 1973. He actually interprets many of his songs better as he grows older, largely because he understands them better. When young, he wrote about what he saw, and dared to write big. Later, many of those songs have come to life through his own experiences, which adds significant layers and dimensions to the interpretations. It may not have anything to do directly with the handicap of a football game, but indirectly there are invaluable life lessons.
Now back to Rutgers. I see the transition of Flood going away for a month (there is a bye week amidst the three-game cycle) as being extremely awkward. There have been six players kicked off the team over the past two weeks, and star WR Leonte Carroo, who has been suspended indefinitely, may be added to that list, so this comes at a time in which leadership to settle things down was badly needed. RB coach Norries Wilson will be the interim head man, but instead of having the keys to the car handed to him for the remainder of the season, it is only for a few laps around the track until Food returns. That ties his hands a bit, which is where I believe that awkwardness plays out. There may be things that Norris is tempted to do in terms of his own football visions that he really can’t do, since Flood will be returning soon, yet he can also not know Flood so well that the team would be developed along their original path for 2015.
I have knocked Rutgers down three points this week, for the absence of both Flood and Carroo, and while that may seem a little extreme, I believe this is not going to play out well (though they do get a break in hosting hapless Kansas next Saturday).
In the Sights…
To refer back to today’s opening salvo, in the early part of any season there is almost as much reading of the marketplace as there is of the teams themselves. What moves are real, what moves are feints to set up a take-back later, and what can one learn that can help to anticipate movement? All part of the game. And it is all part of why I believe it is now go-time for #152 MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA UNDER (time change to 9:15 Eastern). A game that opened at 49 has been hit to the Over twice, but those motives may not have been genuine, so in a game in which TDs will be extremely hard-earned, there is both football science and line value to work with.
These may well be the two best defenses in the nation overall, and they each are at the top of their class in one category – Alabama’s front seven is so strong that the Crimson Tide are the best North/South defense in the land, and among the best in that category in recent memory, while Mississippi has so much speed and athleticism that the Rebels may be the best East/West defense in the land. With both offenses still trying to find their identity behind new QBs, I believe the defenses take command here, not only limiting goal line opportunities, but with the few drives that do get close being more likely to end up as FG attempts, rather than TDs.
In the last two-head-to-heads between these teams there have only been five offensive TDs scored, and only one of them coming in the first half of play. That fundamental matchup has not changed at all, and if anything the fact that they are meeting a few weeks earlier in the schedule than they did in 2014 matters – Chad Kelly and Jake Coker have never taken a snap against these defenses, and both could use a few more games under their belts before facing this level of challenge.
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