Point Blank – September 14
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #2...
The week that was on the NCAA gridirons, with some keys that not only explain better what happened, but to also set into focus what will happen next.
Item: There is a lot of QB sorting to do
This was an extreme weekend for QB injuries, both impacting the way the results should be graded, and also creating issues in terms of pricing for this week, and beyond. So let’s get to it, in alphabetical order -
AIR FORCE – Nate Romine
Romine went down with a knee injury late in Saturday’s win over San Jose State. There was no information made available by the school, and likely will not be until late in the week, the Academy being even more tight-lipped than most programs. Note that senior back-up Karson Roberts did get three starts in 2013, but only saw limited action in three games last season. He is not as good of a passer as Romine, but can be an effective runner in the Falcon spread packages. No adjustment needed to the Saturday result, and with Roberts getting time with the first team offense in practice this week, no more than a half point for the game at Michigan State.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC – Jaquez Johnson
They are holding the FAU game vs. Buffalo down for now because Johnson, a three-year starter, suffered an ankle injury vs. Miami on Friday. But redshirt freshman Jason Driskel showed some upside, going 17-30 for 155 yards and a TD, although a couple of interceptions were due to his inexperience, especially against that class of opponent. I did make a scoreboard adjustment to the game, since the Owls actually played the Hurricanes tough in the trenches, and the game would have been closer if not for the turnovers (they were a -5), some of which the veteran Johnson may have prevented. In terms of this week it would not be as major, with Driskel getting time to practice with the first team, and also stepping down in class in terms of the opposition.
NOTRE DAME – Malik Zaire
Could this have been a Playoff blow to the Fighting Irish? That was on the tips of a lot of tongues across the Sports Mediaverse this weekend, but do not be too quick to dismiss sophomore DeShone Kizer. Kizer has a lot of tools, and is a physical presence at 6-4/230. He was also a good baseball player in high school, which shows some of his all-around talents. What he lacks, of course, is experience, and there is a crash course ahead as Georgia Tech comes to town. After a breather vs. Massachusetts, there is a tough trip to Clemson. Can Kizer be ready to win those games? That is asking a lot. But he could develop into an awfully good QB by the second half of the season. File this away from Brian Kelly - “He’s pretty good in protections. He understands the things he needs to run our offense. I think I’ve commented a couple of times in our press conference, I think he can win games for us. I want to win a championship with him. We saw today he can win games for us. We need to elevate him to that next level. He needs first-team reps, and that’s what we’ll go to work on.” No real adjustment needed to the Saturday result, because Zaire had been struggling a bit., but because of Kizer’s inexperience there should be about a 3-4 point adjustment vs. Georgia Tech, and then lesser in subsequent weeks.
SOUTH CAROLINA – Connor Mitch
Mitch not only suffered a separated shoulder vs. Kentucky, but was also hospitalized battling an infection from a hip pointer against North Carolina in the opener. No timetable has been set for his return, but while junior Perry Orth performed well against Kentucky (13-20 for 179 yards and a TD), he does not bring a great pedigree. Orth is a former walk-on, enrolling in 2013 after spending a year at Florida State College (no, not FSU by a long shot), where he did not play football. Behind him are only redshirt freshman Michael Scarnecchia and true freshman Lorenzo Nunez. Spurrier’s post-game lament sums it up well - “Well see if we can piece it all together. But we’re not talented enough to play poorly and win.” The Gamecocks rallied behind Orth, with the defense making positive in-game tactical changes for the second straight time under new DC John Hoke, so no major adjustment to the Saturday result, but I have docked them four points for this week’s trip to Georgia.
UCF – Justin Holman
Holman had to leave early at Stanford, hitting a helmet with his hand on the opening drive, and it was a long evening for freshman Bo Schneider, who was 7-19 for 46 yards, with an interception. There has not been an update made available yet regarding Holman’s status for this week’s game vs. Furman. While Holman is not the level of talent that gets NFL scouts excited, the lack of experience behind him led to a dismal offensive showing, with the only points coming when redshirt freshman Tyler Harris hit Tre-Quan Smith on a 36-yard score with 1:38 remaining. There is a game score adjustment to be made given the poor showing of the Knight reserve QBs, and should Holman have to miss time, about a four-point adjustment for this week.
UNLV – Blake Decker
The senior Decker was injured (hamstring) late in the first quarter vs. U.C.L.A., and an offense that showed some promise in the opening loss at Northern Illinois more than ground to a halt – they actually went backwards on the scoreboard with sophomore transfer Kurt Palandech, who was 4-15 for only four yards in the air, and threw a pick-six to Bruin LB Kenny Young. Because of how poorly Palandech performed, both the game grade needs to be adjusted, and there will be a serious adjustment if Decker is unable go this week at Michigan.
UTAH – Travis Wilson
I am actually surprised that there is no early line for Utah/Fresno State. While it may be the usual habit to keep a game scratched when a starting QB is out, senior back-up Kendal Thompson is a transfer from Oklahoma that played in seven games last year, including two starts, before suffering a knee injury vs. Oregon. The offense is fine in his hands, and I did not adjust the scoreboard for the time Wilson missed on Friday. As for this week, I would not envision more than a full point between the two, and lean more towards a half
WYOMING – Cameron Coffman/Josh Allen
Coffman, the Cowboy #1, did not play s. Eastern Michigan because of a knee injury, and back-up Josh Allen only lasted until the second possession before damaging his shoulder. Coffman is questionable for this week; Allen will likely not return until late October. That left things in the hands of redshirt freshman Nick Smith, who is not ready for this stage, but had his transition comforted somewhat by the weaknesses of the Eastern Michigan defense. The Cowboys own defense was the prime culprit in the 48-29 demise, allowing over 500 yards without coming up with a takeaway. Wyoming was able to run the ball at will vs. a small and slow defense, rolling up 430 yards overland, but Smith was 3-13 passing for zero yards. You read that correctly – not a single passing yard out of 13 attempts. This is a case in which the scoreboard needs to be adjusted because of his limitations, and if Coffman can’t return at Washington State this week, the line adjustment will be significant.
Now on to some other key items of interest…
Item: Oregon State had a 95-yard penalty (how back-breakers happen, Part I)
Scoreboards and box scores are the officialdom of football charting, and for many folks those are the only items laid out on the slab for the post mortems. But as just about all of you know by now, there is an inexactness of those measurements that often create misleading impressions. The typical NCAA board brings a handful of them, and they will often find their ways into this column. Even in what appear to be clear results, there are some nuances that really do matter in terms of making a proper interpretation.
Michigan clubbed Oregon State 35-7 on the scoreboard, taking command after a slow start, and the way the momentum shifted as the game went on is reflected in the box score, dominations of 24-12 in first downs and 407-145 in total offense. But part of what set off that avalanche was rather unique.
With 1:19 remaining in the first half, Oregon State was trailing 10-7, and faced a fourth down at the Michigan 41 yard line. The Beavers were in the hunt, and had a favorable strategy to play – because they had their timeouts left, they could punt the Wolverines in the hole, get the ball back in good field position, and possibly get a FG attempt to tie it before the half, maybe even take the lead with a TD. And it looked like it might work, Nick Porebski punting the ball dead at the two-yard-line. The play was called back by a State illegal procedure penalty, however, so the Beavers had to punt again. This time there was a bad snap, and the ball rolled until it was covered all the way back at the Oregon State three-yard-line. In effect the penalty swung the field by 95 yards, and it led to a Michigan TD that drastically altered the momentum as the teams went to the locker room.
How much was the sequence worth? It is difficult to measure, because the Wolverines were the superior team. But it was a back-breaker in terms of the game flow at the time. How much different is the locker room energy without that plot twist?
Item: How back-breakers happen, Part II
A similar pre-halftime swing occurred at California, where the heavily-favored Bears were in a dogfight with San Diego State through the first 29 minutes. The game was tied 7-7, and the Aztecs had the ball at midfield with 1:10 to play, a chance to take the outright lead at intermission, or at worst head to the locker room tied. Instead, Christian Chapman threw an interception. Just 80 football seconds later it was 21-7 Cal, the Bears not only putting a three-play drive together after the pick, but also scoring on a 75-yard pass on the first play of the second half. A game in which the underdog had played the favorite dead even for 29 minutes, changed course quickly, and completely.
These things happen every Saturday, and knowing the path to the final score is every bit as important as knowing the score itself. And then there are those statistical oddities…
Item: Interpreting Rice/Texas (you should start liking Jerrod Heard)
As part of the shakeup on offense that Charlie Strong began with the adjustments in his coaching staff, it was also a start for redshirt freshman Heard at QB. It was a good one; a player that had won a pair of Texas state high school championships showed his tremendous physical gifts, and also brought the kind of leadership the unit needed. You just would not notice that from the box score, however, with that game providing a most tricky read.
Rice led in first downs 30-11, and 462-277 in total offense. A glance at that might lead one to believe that the Owls controlled play, with the 42-28 Texas scoreboard an improper measurement, but that was not the case. In terms of yards per play it was no contest, 7.3 – 4.8 for the Longhorns, but a most unusual game flow saw them only get only 38 snaps, while Rice had 96. That is one of the largest disparities I have ever charted.
How does it happen? Some of it was the Owls dinking and dunking effectively, converting eight third downs in the first half alone, keeping possession of the ball even if they were not necessarily heading anywhere. Some of it can be attributed to Texas scoring touchdowns on punt and fumble returns, which deprived the offense of possessions. And there was also the Longhorns letting up with a 42-14 lead in the fourth quarter – in the final stanza offensive snaps were 30-6 for Rice, and points 14-0.
All of that can take away from appreciating Heard. Although he only threw seven passes, they went for 120 yards and two TDs, and his 10 carries generaed 96 more. He is an intriguing piece for Strong to build an offensive puzzle around; the energy is something this program has badly lacked in recent years.
Item: Interpreting Temple/Cincinnati
If you thought Rice/Texas was tricky, then head off to Cincinnati –
Temple Cincinnati
1st Downs 14 32
Total Offense 286 557
Points 34 26
This one was easy to decipher by checking another key category –
Turnovers 1 5
Were the Owls opportunistic, or was it Gunner Kiel and the Bearcat offense being sloppy? The eye test calls it a little of both. Matt Rhule, who is working his way up the respect totem pole for coaches, had a defense in place that confused Kiel several times with zone coverages, but there were also a pair of balls that went off of the hands of Cincinnati receivers first, which ricocheted to Temple defenders. With the Owls having beaten the pointspread by 35 in their first two games, both outright underdog wins, they will gain a lot of market respect, but now there is also a shift in roles – they will be heavily favored in each of the next three games, and there is a genuine question about where the depth of talent will be able to build margins.
Item: Those Florida penalties
In sorting through the various sub-categories in the box scores, many of you probably give short shrift to penalties, since there is only so much time to digest everything. Sometimes that category can be enlightening, however, and that is why Florida’s sloppy 31-24 win over East Carolina, the Gators coming a pair of TDs short of covering, is worth a second look.
In the four seasons under Will Muschamp, Florida was #6 at the wrong end of the charts for most penalties per game, and #12 for penalty yardage. That was something that Jim McElwain had promised to correct – it is tough enough to win in the SEC without giving yardage away. Yet on Saturday the Gators were flagged 12 times for 105 yards. It was so bad the HC used the word “embarrassing” five different times in his post-game press conference.
While there are obviously X’s and O’s issues any time that a new staff takes over a program, there is something about the subculture of Florida football that needs to be straightened out. Watch this category closely as the Gators go into eight straight SEC games; if the discipline and focus are not there they may continue to perform at a shelf below their talent level.
Item: When Gus Malzahn isn’t running his QB
Let’s stay in the SEC, where there was nearly a historical shocker pulled off on Saturday, 40-point underdog Jacksonville State having a legit opportunity to win at Auburn, before bowing in OT. And it was absolutely legit – the Gamecocks actually won the first down (28-23) and total offense (438-401) tables.
The Tigers were considered prime Playoff contenders entering this season, with Malzahn arguably having his best passing QB, something that could open up his playbook even more. The problem is that it comes with a hitch – there is precious little depth behind Jeremy Johnson at QB. So a question was posed on these pages a while back as to how much Malzahn would allow Johnson to run out of those read option looks that are integral to the flow of his offense, and taking the risks of contact it brings. The answer is not much.
Johnson has only had nine rushing attempts for 18 yards through the first two games, and without read option fakes the rest of the ground game has lacked explosiveness – over 79 team rushing attempts only one has gone for more than 20 yards, and that one, by Peyton Barber on Saturday, went for just 21. For as talented as Johnson and the Auburn skill players are, when the defense does not have to respect the QB keeping the ball, the rest of the field shrinks.
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From RJ Bell: Digging for Boxscore Gold (NFL Wk 1)