Point Blank – July 28
From Coors to Molson for Tulowitzki…On how being left-handed impacts unemployment statistics (Let’s talk Flande, Capuano and Morgan)…What if Collin McHugh is only average after all?
For Toronto to be sitting at 50-50 after 100 games stretches baseball geometry pretty damn far. The Blue Jays have out-scored their opponents by 95 runs, a mark only bettered by 64-35 St. Louis, yet they are seven games behind the Yankees in the AL East despite a +57 advantage in net runs. The offense has been brilliant, the pitching below par (#18 in ERA and #23 in FIP), and the ability to manufacture runs or make key fundamental plays on defense has been lacking. With just a modicum of baseball savvy, they could easily be around the 60-40 mark.
Now comes a bombshell. For a team that was expected to make a move for a prime starter or a closer, it is instead the swapping of shortstops, Jose Reyes out and Troy Tulowitzki in, and the addition of set-up man LaTroy Hawkins for some prospects. Of course, Hawkins could find himself in a closer’s role now for a team that has gone this deep into the season without one. He is an upgrade, though not one to set off fireworks, but what about at shortstop?
The most common analysis you are likely to read from other sources is the Home/Away gap in Tulowitzki’s offensive production, with Coors Field playing such a big part across his career -
Home .321 .394 .558
Away .276 .349 .468
He hit a HR for every 18.6 at-bats at Coors, but it took 23.5 elsewhere. Naturally his production at the Rogers Centre will not match Coors, but what you should expect is that his road performances will actually get better. That matters. A big part of his career has been spent in those pitcher-friendly NL West parks in San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego, 18.1 percent of all at-bats. How did he fare across that sampling?
Dodger Stadium/Petco Park/AT&T Field
.262 .335 .433
But now in the AL East, Tulowitzki trades those parks for the likes of Yankee Stadium, the #3 offensive Park Factor this season, Camden Yards (#6) and Fenway (#7), with Tropicana Field even coming in at #14. That will indeed make a difference. The biggest upgrade for the Blue Jays, however, may come from more subtle measures.
Reyes is an explosive player, and it is actually a shame he was not in Coors earlier in his career; you just wonder how many triples he might have had. But he will now be with his fourth team in as many seasons, despite solid numbers in some categories, because the holes in his game are a prime reason why Toronto has underachieved in the standings. Reyes was bad defensively in 2014, and even worse this season, and for an offense that needs him on-base at the top of the order to set up all of those run-producers in the middle, his BB rate is an awful 5.5 percent. Of 161 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify, that rates #119, and his on-base of .322 is awful for a player that has the skill to bat .285. He was more flash than substance, and it is in being much better at baseball’s fundamentals that Tulowitzki may be the biggest upgrade.
Of course, if one goes up, another must come down. How will the Rockies fare the rest of the way with a shortstop among the current worst in the sport, playing in all of that space? And that assumes Reyes brings the mindset to go hard, having left a contender to play for one that has an uphill battle ahead to get out of last place in the NL West. There are rumors that he will be shopped back out to a contender in the remaining days before the trade deadline, but is there anyone willing to bite on a guy still owed $48 million through 2017?
Lefties avoiding unemployment…
Now think of the limited talents of Yohan Flande tonight, who will take the mound likely with Reyes playing defense behind him. Flande is one of several examples on tonight’s board of the benefit of being left-handed, getting an opportunity to start that would not be granted to someone of the same production levels throwing from the other side. He already had tours of duty with the Phillies and Braves, never showing enough for a call-up, before a 2014 that saw him go 3-11/5.60 at AAA, and then 0-6/5.19 for the Rockies, and while he did show well at the AA level early in the season, it was a 3-3/7.11 over six starts at AAA, when he only managed 11 Ks over 31 2/3 IP. You just do not see right-handers getting opportunities in The Show off of that level of performance. But tonight Flande is not alone.
Carl Capuano gets a start for the Yankees, the sixth Major League uniform he has worn over a pedestrian run since 2003 that has produced a 4.31 ERA and 4.23 FIP. Simply a below average pitcher who sticks around because he is a lefty. Note that he worked in relief on both July 23 and 24, getting shelled in the latter.
Then there is Adam Morgan, who has to face a Toronto lineup already leading the Majors in bashing left-handers, and now adds Tulowitzki from the right side. In truth, Morgan’s promotion to The Show is only partially because he is left-handed; even more is that the Phillies simply do not have many options. Morgan went 2-7/4.04 at AAA last year, and opened 0-6/4.74 this season. That does not get a guy promoted unless the circumstances are extreme, and right now in Philadelphia they are. Through his first five MLB starts Morgan’s K/9 and GB% are far too low (5.9 and 34.5 respectively) to be able to survive, and the former count is on par with how he fared at AAA. That means any chance for success will come down to generating more ground balls, and that is where you should focus as you chart his next few starts.
In the Sights…
Having already picked up Scott Kazmir, the Houston Astros are also considered to be pushing for Cole Hamels as much as any other team. There is a reason for that, something they see every fifth or sixth day on the mound, but does not register with the marketplace yet – Collin McHugh may be nothing more than an average pitcher, and not a guy to trust with the ball in October. Hence why the #969 Angels can be trusted in an underdog role tonight.
McHugh got a chance with the Mets in 2012, and went 0-4/7.59. In 2013 he had seven appearances with the Mets and Rockies, and turned in an 0-4/10.04. That made his 11-9/2.73 with the Astros a stunner last year, and to many it may look like he is following up well, an 11-5 personal W/L, even with the ERA inflating to 4.25. With back-to-back wins since the All Star break, there is also the appearance of form. The truth may be much different, McHugh’s ERA is well above Major League average, his FIP sitting dead on it, and his xFIP a trickle above. This may be who he is.
2014 brought a major surprise in McHugh’s K/9, registering a 9.1 that was better than any of his AAA stints. Combine that with a favorable .259 BABIP, and it would indeed lead to a strong season. But that K count is down to 7.0, which is closer to where his AAA stuff would project, and his BABIP has regressed. For him to go 11-5, and Houston 13-7 across his 20 starts, has been a lot of favorable baseball circumstance built in, and note that those post-break wins have also been nothing special, with 18 hits allowed vs. only 8 Ks across those games.
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)