Point Blank – July 27
Did Ventura’s start mean as much as the Cueto trade?...Ray Milland’s “Lost Weekend” was better than the one the Cubs just had…
There were some significant adjustments being made on the Kansas City prices to win the World Series following the addition of Johnny Cueto yesterday, including the Westgate in Las Vegas making the Royals the stand-alone favorites. It is difficult to disagree with that based on the talent on hand, the experience gained from the run deep into last October, and the addition of a front-line starter, although Cueto’s GABP/All Others splits of recent seasons will be a topic when he first takes the mound in the Royal blue later this week. But what if the addition of Cueto wasn’t even the biggest news coming out of Kansas City yesterday?
Yordano Ventura was really good against Houston. For both the short-term and long-term, that was major news.
An item that could have been easily missed this pat week was the Ventura, who was given a $23 million contract following his 14-10/3.20 break-out in 2014, and then named the opening day starter, was demoted to the Minor Leagues. After 14 starts into the 2015 season he was sitting on a 4-7/5.19, and as Ned Yost put it succinctly in a piece by Andy McCullough in the Kansas City Star – “We’re at a point where we’ve got to put our best guys out there. We’ve got to win games. We want to try to win this division. So performance matters.”
Here is more from pitching coach Dave Eiland, when asked what his advice was for Ventura - “Get your confidence back. Get your confidence, get your swagger back. That killer instinct. Last year, he’d get runners on base and he’d rise to the occasion and be at his best. And he’s having trouble with that. It’s all about confidence and conviction and belief. He just needs to get that killer instinct back. Any player, when they have some struggles, some self-doubt creeps in. That’s what I’m seeing in him right now. As he gets that back, and the belief back, the kid’s going to be everything we thought he was going to be.”
Yet many of you likely did not notice the demotion, because Ventura was brought right back, a move made necessary by Jason Vargas had to leave Tuesday’s start vs. Pittsburgh with an injury to his left elbow, which has ended this season. So while the Cueto rumors were rumbling over Sunday brunch, the handicapping focus came on watching Ventura closely, to see how he would respond – with another starter on the way, was he pitching to keep his spot in the rotation, and would that pressure make it even more difficult for him to regain his lost form?
Instead of showing any nerves or frustrations, Ventura stepped up big time. He retired 22 of the 28 batters he faced, not issuing a single walk, the kind of outing that can turn the momentum of a pitcher around. Yost was right on point about that – “He was out on the attack. He stayed within himself, his mechanics, and did a great job of keeping his pitching count down. The best way I can describe it is – it was the old Ventura.” Ventura himself added – “My confidence is a lot better after today.”
Now the key for the handicapper, both in terms of relating to those adjusted Royals futures, and Ventura going forward - does one game offer enough to declare a guy to be right back on track? It can, if he was not all that far off track to begin with. Let’s start with what most folks see, and what was causing alarm for the Royals
W/L ERA
2014 14-10 3.20
2015 5-7 4.86
That looks like quite a collapse. But what happens if the charting goes to the four categories I use so often to measure a pitcher against his own past standards –
K/9 BB/9 GB% SwS%
2014 7.8 3.4 47.6 10.3
2015 7.6 2.7 51.0 9.5
Not much change at all, is there? In fact, FIP actually rates the 2015 Ventura a tick better than the 2014 model, a 3.56 vs. 3.60, with improvements in control and ground-balls more a sign of maturing stuff rather than someone struggling. It is baseball itself that has altered the flow, with a .288 BABIP of 2014 being elevated to a .317 this season. What makes that .317 stand out a bit is that the Royals are have been #3 in the Major’s so far this season, allowing a .279 in the category. Ventura’s stuff has been fine, but more contact has turned into hits than would have been expected. Sometimes that can indeed get into a pitcher’s head, and in this case it also got into the heads of KC management as well. Now let’s see if it is in the heads of the betting markets, as they price Ventura for his next outing.
In the Sights…
There is value to be found from several directions behind Jorge de la Rosa and #901 Colorado tonight, a chance to play into a slumping Chicago team that is carrying a high price tag despite being dumped 21-8 in an 0-3 collar vs. the Phillies this weekend, one of the worst series any team has played this season given the 11-37 Philadelphia road record coming in. And it was actually a 21-5 deficit into the bottom of the 8th yesterday, before the Cubs tacked on a trio of late runs.
First note that the Rockies set up much better than usual for a team having to travel into a new series – Troy Tulowitzki and Corey Dickerson were given Sunday off, and neither LaTroy Hawkins nor John Axford were needed from the bullpen. Then take a closer look at De La Rosa, who is showing that he is at full health, with his best K/9 since 2009, and highest GB% since 2010. So why such a high price? Largely because the markets show little interest in a guy that has had the odd split of performing better at Coors Field than on the road in the past, an anomaly that is making a rather inevitable and logical correction this season (2-2/6.62 Home vs. 4-2/1.93 Away), and also because there was the appearance of him getting shelled in his last outing vs. Texas, giving up six earned runs in as many innings. It is a start that requires a bit more scrutiny.
De La Rosa indeed had an awful first inning vs. the Rangers, Colorado falling behind 4-0 before getting a batter to the plate. Yet his stuff was actually good that afternoon – he had more Ks (eight) than Hits + BB combined (seven). It marked the second time in three outings that his K count was higher than Hits+BB, yet all you will see in the “Last Three Starts” in the pitching forms is an 0-1/5.29. That is where sneaky value comes from, and it has the Cubs laying far too much price for this matchup.
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)