Point Blank – May 24
Curry 40/Harden 17, and the rest weren’t any closer (reminiscences of Foreman/Frazier #1; the Playoff Passages #33)…More Run Support Ruminations (still without conclusions)…
Golden State 115 Houston 80
On Thursday night Stephen Curry and James Harden engaged in a classic battle of MVP candidates, one that turned into a tense thriller for the teams as well, an outcome not determined until Curry and the Warrior defense took the ball away from Harden as the final seconds ticked away.
Last night those MVP rivals instead reverberated the echoes of that first go-round between George Foreman and Joe Frazier, a night in Jamaica that promised visions of sporting greatness going in, yet only brought the thuds of Frazier hitting the canvas. Game #3 of this series was a mismatch from the top down, the outcome decided early, and the series itself heading towards a quick conclusion.
Curry took 19 field goal attempts and 10 free throws. For Harden it was 16 and 11. One would expect close production numbers based on those counts, but it was a 40-17 rout in favor of Curry, and the rest of the evening was also Golden State by a dozen points. Before dealing with how atrocious the Rockets were, Curry deserves just about every bit of praise there can be. To manage 40 points out of his shot attempts is a statistical marvel. He also had seven assists, five rebounds and a pair of steals in a brilliant floor game.
It was nearly a point-per-minute domination when Curry was on the floor, a +33 over 34:58, and indeed Draymond Green got there, a +36 over 35:50. And the play of both Andre Iguodala and Festus Ezeli (Andrew Bogut was effective, but his foul trouble forced Ezeli into more action) off the bench was superb.
And then there was Houston, a team that has provided plenty of entertaining notions over the past month, not all for the right reasons. The Rockets were out-worked 60-39 on the boards, a statistical imbalance almost as unlikely as Curry’s points-per-shot ratios. Instead of stepping up with the home court behind them they had a listless energy from the start, and the execution was abysmal, with as many turnovers (15) as assists. Harden’s time nearly managed a point-per-minute deficit, his team losing by 31 over the 32:12 he participated in.
Does Houston have the character to respond with grit for Game #4? Or has McHale’s Navy finally been sunk? That will be a question heading into Monday, but it could well be that Golden State makes it a moot point – the Warriors showed the focus to go for the jugular last night, and if they bring that same energy and execution the Rockets lack a counter anyway.
As for today, I do not expect to be involved with much at Cleveland. The Under has been “In the Sights...” in the first two games of this series, but a combination of eight quarters of visuals and numbers for the oddsmakers and marketplace, and the absence of Kyle Korver, has made 189.5 the new plateau. And with questions about Kyrie Irving not to be answered until later in the day, it is only a time to sit and wait, but there are no major targets for this one anyway.
About Last Night…
Saturday was a good reminder to anyone involved in this endeavor how there are certain mountains that never do get climbed, largely because there is a mist surrounding their summits that will not go away. Among the prime ideas in this column over the course of the week was that Harden would struggle against the Warrior defense, a concept that I put in play in the first two games, but not #3. He showed just enough to create a doubt of the original concept, which led to the usual frustrations as he turned in last night’s clunker. Be prepared for those, because inside of the bounces of sport, and the vagaries of human behavior behind the performances of athletes, those sequences never go away. There is not a degree certificate you can earn to get above the fray.
And then there was Corey Kluber, who was once again superb vs. Cincinnati, but the method of backing him on the Run Line (there was no chance of me laying -215, so that was never a part of the through process) brought a Loss. It was the continuation of something for Kluber that has stretched a pendulum pretty far, and is also a reminder of an aspect of MLB handicapping that has not been conquered, despite over three decades of searching. The micro topic is Run Support.
The Indians have only scored 23 runs in Kluber’s 10 starts. Of the 117 pitchers that have worked at least 40 innings, that rates #114, with only Jesse Chaves, Andrew Cashner and Jake Odorizzi getting less from their teammates. But those three also work with weaker offenses, so in terms of expected production (Cleveland is #11 in OPS), Kluber would likely check in dead last.
For many years there have been hopes of finding a Holy Grail of run support, some magical ebb-and-flow formula that would point to the timing of where there could be a positive expectation. That search has produced nothing useful. Corrections happen over time, but not in a way that can be pinpointed with the kind of confidence needed when laying vigorish. Are the Rangers going to keep averaging 7.7 behind Nick Martinez, with a mediocre offense (#15 in OPS)? No, but finding the timing will not be easy. And guess who happens to be #2 in support at 7.1? None other than Kluber’s teammate, Danny Salazar.
Sometimes an ace, like Kluber, will run bad early in the season in this category because he will be matched up against other aces as rotations unfold. There is real merit to that, which led to studies of Run Expectancy Per Game based on the competition, but you won’t read REPG here much because the research did not pan out. Meanwhile someone like Salazar will face the bottom of other rotations for much of the early season. But yesterday the Tribe was up against the ordinary stuff of Anthony DeSclafani, and it did not matter anyway (although that Cincinnati ABC bullpen issue raised its ugly head again).
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