Point Blank – February 23
What a “Bettor Better Know” – The Weekend Hoops Review
Item: Dealing with a longer break (when Spencer Dinwiddie schools Derrick Rose, chart with pencil, not pen)
With the NBA All Star Break significantly longer than usual, charting the first couple of playing days on the return became an important exercise, and an enlightening one. The simple base numbers may show nothing earth-shattering, with Home Teams going 11-7-2 ATS, Favorites posting a 10-8-2, and an 11-9 leaning to the Over. But this was sausage being made, so you need to look inside the casing.
There was inconsistency galore. The average Side was off by 12.3 points, even with two pushes to significantly narrow it, and the average Total fell 16.1 off of the market expectations. Of those 20 games, only eight Totals finished within 15 points off of the closer. It is something that certainly urges caution with this cycle in the future, and also should have you not reacting too strongly to any of those scores in terms of your immediate evaluations. Because there were things like -
Spencer Dinwiddie turned Derrick Rose into Apollo Creed
In theory, it should have been a major mismatch at PG for the Bulls against the Pistons on Friday night, with Rose a potential Hall of Famer if he stays healthy, and rookie Dinwiddie having only played 5:28 over two games since being recalled from Grand Rapids of the D-League. But the Pistons won 100-91, beating the spread by 15 points, and it was all about the dominance of that particular matchup -
Minutes Points FG/FGA A/TO Steals +/-
Rose 31:04 8 2-9 2/6 0 -19
Dinwiddie 30:42 12 5-9 9/2 3 +19
Will Dinwiddie ever get another NBA start? And then there were the circus results from some of the teams -
TORONTO 105 Atlanta 80
Houston 98 TORONTO 76
How about that for consistency? Or…
Orlando 95 NEW ORLEANS 84
NEW ORLEANS 105 Miami 91
And note that the second result came in a game that Anthony Davis only played 8:53. How about this lovely item from Saturday night –
LAC Reserves 68 Sacramento Starters 55
George Karl’s rebuilding process does not actually begin until training camp opens next October, with what will then be a reshuffled Kings cast.
So treat the NBA results from this past weekend with more than just one grain of salt. If you want a few takeaways that do matter, when David Blatt has Iman Shumpert log more minutes than anyone else in a blowout (at New York on Sunday), it shows that he has a proper clue about game management; Russell Westbrook is playing better than anyone in the league right now; and even after taking time off during the All Star Break, the Denver players pay only the slightest attention when Brian Shaw speaks (both Milwaukee and Oklahoma City were playing starting lineups that were together for the first time, and the Nuggets could not make much out of it)…
Now to the college hardwoods, where the sounds from the symphony warming up to accompany the Big Dance are already being heard…
Item: How bad were the Arizona starters vs. UCLA?
Arizona was just such a team hearing that music, with Saturday night offering the Wildcats one of their few Pac 12 opportunities to make a major statement, in terms of tourney seeding. And the starting five was simply atrocious.
Arizona did not score in the game until reserve Dusan Ristic made a pair of FTs at 13:55, when down 7-0. It was not until the 9:34 mark that a starter scored, Brandon Ashley making a lay-up. At halftime, UCLA’s Bryce Alford had out-scored the entire Wildcat starting lineup (11-8), but Sean Miller’s reserves had played well enough for what seemed like a commanding 32-18 lead. But then Miller did what he was supposed to do, reinserting the starters to begin the second half. And this time they were even worse than in the opening stanza.
32-18 became 32-35 over a span of 6:44. Once again the Arizona starting lineup could not manage a single point for more than 6:00; at the 14:00 mark of each half they had been out-scored 22-0. And while the Wildcats did eventually take command to get the final margin to double figures, one has to question the offensive confidence of this bunch in the aftermath – the starting five managed only 30 points in 144 floor minutes, which would project to 41.7 for a full game. The top three scorers for the season, Ashley, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Stanley Johnson, were 4-25.
Miller was blunt about it – “The first three or four minutes of tonight’s game just featured one Arizona player after the next just taking his turn to go one-on-one. It just doesn’t work.” That is often what can happen to a young team in a big game, when players try a little too hard to make a statement. But this is not a young team - the expectation in Tucson this season was that there was a level of maturity that would take this bunch beyond such temptations. That may not be the case, which is worth filing away when the bigger challenges arrive in March.
Item: The next time North Carolina plays at home…
Beyond the winning and losing at the betting windows lies a special charm that sport brings, and it is a major part of what this endeavor is about – by digging in deeply to find edges, there are the rewards of watching unique events unfold. As such, there might not be a more memorable moment in this College Basketball season than watching North Carolina go to the “Four Corners” offense on the first possession against Georgia Tech, culminating with Marcus Paige feeding Brice Johnson for an easy back-door layup. It was the sort of highlight that you want to file away and watch again, except that on subsequent viewing the same thing stood out – not the play itself, but the fact that the Tar Heel fans did not recognize what was happening, with the background showing nearly all of them sitting in their seats despite the clear sign from Williams as to what had been called, something they should have recognized. It was a great moment partially wasted. But it did provide Williams with a post-game platform, which may well matter in the future
“I’m a little disappointed more of our crowd didn’t have more savvy, but I felt like they were asleep most of the day anyway, so it was about all right. … It’s not intended to be criticism, but it’s criticism. We need some dadgum help. We’re going on the road and people are screaming like banshees or something and today it was like every time I yelled at a player, they turned around and looked at me. I yelled at a player Wednesday night, they never knew I was over there frickin’ yelling. They thought I was doing exercises. If you want to act like I’m chastising the fans, tell them to come in and invest. Come and invest. We need some help when we play back here. … Don’t sit over there and feel like we have to entertain you.”?
Now it becomes a matter of impact. That statement made the rounds of the Sunday newspapers across the state, and it does put an added focus on the Tuesday night game vs. N. C. State. Could this be something that does get taken to heart, and increase the passions of those fans in a way that could raise the home court value a bit?
Item: The next time Colorado plays Oregon State…
Colorado may also have some increased passion for a future setting, and while it may be a way off, it is the sort of thing that you should get into the habit of filing away for that future references. Instead of finding their game with the return to health of Xavier Johnson, Josh Scott and Askia Booker the Buffaloes are struggling to get back into rhythm, with Saturday night’s 72-58 loss at Oregon State being the latest. But note that while they did not play well, they did play hard, cutting what had been a 22-point deficit down to eight with 3:45 remaining. And because they were still playing hard it is what happened in the end-game cycle that could well matter the next time these teams meet.
Oregon State had the ball twice with the shot clocked turned off and a lead of 14 points. Instead of the courtesy dribble-out, both times Gary Payton II went to the basket for showcase dunks. You don’t do that. Beaver HC Wayne Tinkle is a good guy that should know better, and being the son of a former NBA star that is in the Naismith Hall of Fame, Payton II, who otherwise played a brilliant game, with 24 points, seven blocked shots (remarkable for a 6-3 guard) and four steals, should know better.
The teams may meet in the Pac 12 tourney in Las Vegas in March, but they will meet in Boulder next season, when Payton should still be in uniform (he only projects as a mid-second round pick should he opt early for the draft). It is unlikely that Thad Boyle and his team will have forgotten the ending in Corvallis. You shouldn’t either.
Item: The next time Kansas State plays (which is tonight)…
Ordinarily a home game against Kansas brings out the best in Kansas State, the opportunity to give the superior Jayhawks their comeuppance, and in the last four games between these rivals in Manhattan the Wildcats have twice broken through for wins, while the two defeats were by just 59-55 and 59-53. But is State capable of such an effort tonight? Instead of a step-up affair, this time it may be an awkward setting for the Wildcats.
The following from HC Bruce Weber is significant in that it came not after Saturday’s 69-42 drubbing at Baylor, but beforehand - “I just want guys that care, that’s all I want. Guys that care and want to play for K-State and want to play to win, and will play hard. … That’s pretty simple. I’m not a genius by no means, I’ve coached a long time, I know what’s right and wrong and when guys won’t compete and battle and come to practice every day ... We have about 24 days of practice in a month. I’ll give them a couple days off, where they don’t have great days. Everyone has bad days, but you can’t just come once in a while and think you’re going to be a great college player. You’re a product of your habits, your daily habits, that’s what life is. Whether it’s life or basketball, what you do every day is what you show and how your life goes. It’s frustrating and disappointing.”
That was in the aftermath of a 69-55 mid-week loss at TCU that was worse than the final score would indicate, with the Horned Frogs leading 35-15 at halftime and coasting, something they are rarely in position to do in a Big 12 game. So on Saturday Weber changed his starting lineup, inserting Tre Harris and Jevon Thomas ahead of Justin Edwards and Nigel Johnson, but the showing at Baylor was wretched, a dismal defeat in which the offense had nearly as many turnovers (15) as made baskets (18), scoring at an anemic .69 PPP.
This time the most insightful post-game comments were not from Weber, but rather from senior Thomas Gipson - “I’m mad. I can’t speak for anybody else. The season’s not good right now, and it’s my last year. Nobody’s on the same page. That’s just what happens when you’re not on the same page. You get distant from each other and you don’t play as a team and you get beat by 27. … That’s what it boils down to. We’re just not tough enough. It’s frustrating that we lost, period. For them to beat us by 27 points means that we just laid down at the end.”
Yes, the fact that they are playing Kansas will still mean that the players bring at least a little passion tonight. But has this group become too dysfunctional for that motivational tool to matter anywhere near the level it has in the past? In this case it is not necessarily a predilection to get behind the Jayhawks, but rather to avoid a home dog that might otherwise entice for this type of setting.
Item: Louisville rallies with Chris Jones, wins with Chris Jones, then dismisses Chris Jones (and also plays tonight)…
Rick Pitino and his Cardinals were a topic in this page a couple of times last week, having to play at Syracuse without starting PG Chris Jones, and not faring all that well, particularly on the defensive end where the shorter rotation meant far less pressure than usual. Jones was then re-instated prior to Saturday’s game vs. Miami, and while he did not start, his performance off the bench looked like it could have been a turning point not just for him, but the entire team – he scored 17 points, along with five rebounds, two assists and two steals, as Louisville rallied from being down in double figures to winning 55-53.
And just when it was time to believe that the Cardinal momentum had turned, the announcement came on Sunday that Jones is gone, this time for good. That leads to what could be a difficult setting at Georgia Tech tonight, with only one day for the players to absorb that harsh reality. In particular, it provides a major Eye Test to view the confidence level of freshman PG Quentin Snyder, who now has to step his game way up.
Snyder had a good first half against Syracuse on Wednesday, then faded badly at crunch time. He only played the first 5:00 vs. Miami, with no points, rebounds or assists, as the Cardinals fell down 13-3. That could have his confidence at a dangerously low ebb, while also bringing the same issue of Pitino lacking the available depth for his preferred pressing tactics. There is a lot to learn as the ESPN cameras take focus on that game, and while the two starting back-courts will be three freshmen and a sophomore, which introduces the kind of potential randomness that urges some caution, in this setting there would be nothing wrong with taking a little +6 or better for a root (Pinny even flashed a +7 this morning) while you are watching.
Item: Is Dayton wearing down?
Speaking of depth, it is time to put Dayton under the microscope. At 20-6, and 10-4 in Atlantic 10 play, the Flyers are in a rather comfortable position in terms of an at-large bid, but after losing Devon Scott, Jalen Robinson and Ryan Bass earlier in the season, the remaining pieces are beginning to look worn down. A quick glance can show Saturday’s 83-73 loss at Duquesne as ugly enough; an important deeper Post Mortem makes it worse.
Ordinarily when you see an upset like that, it can be a case of the underdog merely having a hot hand, but that was not the reality. What happened was that the Dukes comfortably won the boards and consistently got the ball close to the basket, making 25-42 on their two-point attempts, and having assists on 21 of their 31 baskets in the game. Bench points were 20-5. It was a tired and leg-weary Dayton defense, having had a short turnaround after going to the wire to escape 68-64 vs. St. Joseph’s on Thursday, and the Fliers were a step behind much of the afternoon.
Take a look at the minutes being played by the starters in Atlantic 10 action – all five going at least 32 per game, and Sibert Jordan, Dyshawn Pierre and Scoochie Smith are all at 35 or more. Through those 14 league games, only two reserves have contributed a point or a rebound. That can take a toll in an under-rated conference that does not provide many easy contests, and the Flyers will be an intriguing case study down the stretch.
Item: Texas still can’t guard the perimeter (but remains tough around the basket)
Texas drew money at home vs. Iowa State on Saturday, and it should not have come as a surprise – the Longhorns were playing with revenge from a competitive 89-86 road loss to the Cyclones, and were giving the appearance of turning the corner in a 3-1 SU and ATS run coming in, the only outright defeat a more than respectable 71-69 loss at Oklahoma as +6.5. But a problem that was focused on in this column a couple of weeks, ago, their inability to guard the perimeter, has not gone away. As it turns out, the three-game win streak came largely because they faced Kansas State, TCU and Texas Tech in succession, not because their weakness had been plugged.
The problem stems from having an under-sized guard rotation that has not been effective at either taking the ball away, or getting out on perimeter shooters. In last week’s losses it was more of the same – Oklahoma made 8-19 triples (42.1 percent), while turning the ball over only five times, then Iowa State knocked down 12-21 from long range, with only eight turnovers. That is simply woeful perimeter defense, and the fact that it happened in a pair of second meetings tells us that the issue has not been solved, and indeed may not be this season,
Use this contrast to help set your Texas handicaps the remainder of the way – a solid interior cast rates #1 in the Big 12 in defending 2-point attempts, blocked shots, and clearing the defensive boards. But on the perimeter they are dead last in steals and opponents turnover percentage, and next-to-last in defending the 3-point line. It is one instance in which overall defensive numbers do not tell a proper tale, but instead the particulars offer some matchup opportunities pending the strengths and weaknesses of the opposition.