Point Blank – February 2
What a “Bettor Better Know” – Weekend Starting Five...Both NBA and NCAA In the Sights...
While saving the Super Bowl for tomorrow, and pondering that bizarre Coaching Vortex that made one think the game was being played down the way in Sedona, instead of Glendale, it is time for The Weekend that Was on the NCAA and NBA hardwoods, and some key items that you can incorporate into your own handicapping portfolios, in order to gain some major edges on the games ahead…
Item: Villanova looks like a February Big East play-on
The Big East may look a lot different without the glamour of Syracuse, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Louisville and Pittsburgh, but in truth it is a good conference this season, sitting #2 on the Ken Pomeroy ratings, with a lot of programs that are pretty evenly matched. That has made for a lot of competitive games (consider that in Marquette’s 2-7 league mark, only one defeat came by more than six points in regulation, including a pair of OT’s), which is going raise a February issue – while the teams are good, there is a lack of depth across the board, and all of those close games will take a toll. Except for one, by far the class of the league, and the gap between Jay Wright and Villanova may be greater in February than the market perceptions.
Do not be fooled by the fact that the Wildcats “only” have eight players in their rotation – this is one of the nation’s deepest and best-balanced teams. No one has had to play more than the 30.6 minutes per game of Ryan Arcidiacono, and the fact that the parts are so interchangeable has led to a terrific balance. Consider this – only Darrun Hillard, at 13.3 ppg, rates in the top 25 in the Big East in scoring. How rare is it for a team to lead a conference with that being the case? But look at the contributions of the others –
JayVaughn Pinkston 9.9
Joshn Hart 9.9
Daniel Ochefu 9.8
Dylan Ennis 9.7
Ryan Arciadiacono 9.6
Kris Jenkins 6.8
Phil Booth 5.3
If the Villanova games were at just a little more tempo, they could easily have six players averaging in double figures, which would be a major story. The irony is that because that balance is so special, it keeps a cluster of players a tick below the 10.0 plateau, which ends of casting a shadow over their accomplishments, instead of bringing it to the surface. And that balance matters on defense as well – when Ochefu is not on the court, this is one of those very rare teams that can switch at every position when playing man-to-man, since Pinkston brings the ability to guard on the perimeter. As such, they are allowing only 29.2 percent shooting beyond the arc, and have 170 steals in 21 games.
Do not be surprised is this group has some pointspread success in February, with this depth and balance wearing out Big East opponents that may be a bit punched out, given how competitive many of the league games have been so far. Saturday was a classic example – there was some rust early against DePaul, which could be excused given the fact that the Wildcats were on playing their second game in 12 days. But once they settled in it was a 37-18 domination over the final 20 minutes, the sort of thing we may see a lot of in the days ahead.
Item: Briante Weber (VCU) is better than you may think
Which will begin a major issue for Shaka Smart and VCU the rest of the way, after losing him to a torn ACL that will end his college career. But it is perhaps something that could be profitable news for the savvy handicapper. What creates the issue is that the traditional numbers simply do not measure Weber well.
At 17-4, the Rams are still favored to make it to the NCAA tourney, and because of their high profile, will likely not see major market adjustments for the games ahead. The Sports Mediaverse will talk about Weber averaging 8.1 ppg, with 3.7 rpg and 85 assists over 21 games. Decent, but not stuff that moves the needle. What will not be talked about as much is the fact that those assists have come while turning the ball over only 34 times, and that he has been the best on-ball defender in the nation, with 217 steals in 530 floor minutes, a rather remarkable ratio. If you chose to study steals on a per game basis, he is at 3.7, by far the national leader, and he was only 12 more thefts away from setting the all-time Division I career record.
But those are the numbers that can be measured. What is more difficult it to understand the impact his ball pressure has on disrupting offenses and taking them out of their rhythm. The Eye Test has absolutely seen it, but will there be market adjustments to something that just does not show up well in the logs? Yes, there is some depth at the position, with talented players like sophomore JeQuan Lewis and freshman Jonathan Williams now having to step up. But there is naturally a significant gap in experience between what they bring and what Weber had done over the past four years, with that loss to Richmond on Saturday being the 127th game of his VCU career, including five in the Big Dance. He was a difference maker, but will he be perceived that way in the marketplace?
Item – The Lakers are not better without Kobe
It is a fun story, isn’t it, to make the case that the Lakers are a better basketball team without Kobe Bryant being able to play. It must be, because there are so many telling the tale, and it becomes easy to do so because the statistics are out there - on a net PP100 basis, the numbers have been better without him, rather than with. Those narratives were able to add some “I told you so’s” after Thursday’s win over the Bulls. But what if that is actually not the case?
Yes, the numbers do tell a story about Kobe-in vs. Kobe-out, and his particular statistics were dismal. He was shooting just 37.3 percent (career: 45.1), including 29.3 from beyond the arc (career: 33.4). But all basketball statistics, except for free throw shooting, are directly impacted by the opposition. And that is the issue on this front.
For as bad as the Lakers were with Bryant, opponents were still going to get after them, and not let off the gas pedal. For many players around the league, the chance to give Kobe a comeuppance was a major motivator. As such, the Lakers with Bryant on the court have been facing a significantly higher level of intensity than when he has not been in games. I believe that has been significant, and as such clouds the statistics to the point at which they must be taken with a grain of salt.
Now there is another factor to ponder as the dog days of the schedule set in. Kobe brought a competitive drive that not only sparked opponents to want to beat him, but also mattered to the other Lakers, both in practice and in games. For him to not be a daily part of the proceedings will matter with what is now a rudderless ship. With no meaningful target to play for the rest of the way, this roster is going to miss his leadership and intensity much more than his uninspiring statistics, and the savvy handicapper needs to grasp this concept to understand their flows going forward.
While the win over the Bulls was a dramatic one in front of the TNT cameras, their plodding loss to the Knicks in Madison Square Garden on second, New York’s second-highest margin of victory all season, should actually carry more meaning. They shot 35.5 percent, including a hideous 11-38 from the starting five. At that rate, the numbers without Kobe will be heading towards the proper plateau. Your key will be to find any spots in which the opposition is going to bring it, as the Knicks did on Sunday, because this is an easy team to exploit in those settings.
Item: Is Brian Shaw losing the Nuggets?
Denver’s 104-86 loss at home to Charlotte on Saturday night deserve some context, because as bad as that score looks, it was much worse. It was 62-30 at halftime, and the Bobcats got the blowout despite being without Kemba Walker, and also having the worst night of the NBA season from long range, missing all 11 three-point attempts. So to establish perspective, take the following comments from Byron Scott and Jameer Nelson, and begin to factor them in. First Scott -
"I don't feel like we came and competed from the very beginning of the game. And I wish in these kinds of situations, I'd have more respect if guys just told me they didn't feel like playing tonight from the start. I'm just sick and tired of one night getting a certain kind of effort, the next night we don't show up, we don't compete. You come out and you compete, and then if you don't have it, then you don't have it and you can live with it. Tonight we just didn't compete. It's a broken record."
Now Nelson - “We definitely could have played harder, but nobody is exempt from top to bottom – guys who played; coaches who coached … We do have to take ownership of things we need to do and get better at, individually and collectively. Everybody, coaches included.”
But here is what matters most – those comments were not after the disaster vs. Charlotte, but rather after losing badly at Memphis on Thursday. That paints Saturday’s collapse in an entirely different light – it was supposed to have been the bounce-back game for the Nuggets, but instead they went from bad to worse. And it particularly matters that Nelson spoke out about the coaching staff the way that he did, since he only came on board a little over two weeks ago. He has quickly recognized the negative vibe.
Yes, the Nuggets were without Kenneth Faried and Darrell Arthur vs. Charlotte, but that does not come close to excusing how awful they were. And this time around Shaw only offered up – “There’s not a whole lot to say right now, except we’re not very good”, before refusing to take any post-game questions.
The Nuggets are 1-10 over the last 11 games, only winning vs. Dallas when the Mavericks sat out Dirk Nowitzki, Rajon Rondo and Wilson Chandler, and they fell outright three times when favored. Now they head to the Eastern time zone for a uniquely-short three-game road trip, all against opponents they are capable of beating. But are they simply too dysfunctional? And if they can not win on this trip, will it be the last one that Shaw makes with the team?
Item: The Texas (perimeter) defense breaks down
When this season begin the arc for the Texas program looked promising. After bottoming out two years ago Rich Barnes got his Longhorns to re-ignite LY, winning an NCAA tournament game in a campaign in which they seemed to be a little head of schedule. So with all five starters back, and the kind of size and athleticism up front to play the tenacious defense that has been the cornerstone of his better teams, sources like the Blue Ribbon Yearbook, which rated them #12 in the pre-season, could not help but be optimistic. To back that up, there were quality early wins vs. Iowa (71-57) in Madison Square Garden and Connecticut (55-54) on the road, and there was no real fault in falling 63-51 at Kentucky. The defense was doing its thing. So the optimism was extremely high when Big 12 play began.
And then the defense stopped. There were some decent moments in opening 3-2 in the Big 12, but also some inconsistency. Then came the current 0-3 slide in which the defense became consistent. But it was consistently bad – Kansas, Iowa State and Baylor combined to average a shocking 82.3 points, shooting 48.6 percent from the field (44.4 beyond the arc), and dishing out 57 assists. Let’s set some market perspective. If we use the closing Side and Total to create the expectations, Kansas was being projected for 67 points, Iowa State for 73 and Baylor for 65. Yet that trio scored 14.0 per game above that.
Texas has the tools to guard the paint. But they are #8 in the 10-team Big 12 in defensive efficiency. So where is the biggest problem? It actually comes from the smaller players on the perimeter. Imagine being #8 in defensive efficiency despite leading the conference in blocked shots by a wide margin (18 more than Kansas in league games)? The inside presence has been there. But they are #9 in the Big 12 in turnovers forced, dead last in #10 in steals, and #9 in 3-point percentage allowed. Conference opponents are an alarming +35 in assist to turnover ratio.
The three key cogs on the perimeter are 6-1 Isaiah Taylor, 5-11 Javan Feliz and 6-2 Demarcus Holland, often playing together as a trio. This group does not bring much size, and they are not making up for it with technique or intensity. It has forced Barnes to play both man-to-man and zone defenses this season, and neither has worked of late. The timing is particularly important to focus on this defense, because the next cycle matches them up against Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU and Texas Tech, the four lowest-rated offenses in the Big 12. If they can not get these issues sorted through this cycle, it could be ominous for those February trips to Oklahoma, West Virginia and Kansas, especially with fatigue becoming an issue for a team getting precious little bench production.
In the Sights, NBA…
Last Monday in this column there was a take on how #702 Cleveland was playing much better defense having had some practice time at home to incorporate those new faces, particularly Timofey Mozgov, into the rotation. At the time the focus was on their 4-0 SU and ATS run on that home-stand, but the key this time is another 4-0 since then, that being the run to the Under over the past week, games that played a collective 46.5 points below the market perceptions. Yet when you go to the charts this morning they still rate only #25 in defensive efficiency, and it is going to take a while for the markets to properly adjust to the new realities.
It matters even more tonight, because a visit from Philadelphia is all about game management. That has been a common theme across the NBA – in January games in which the 76ers were double-figure underdogs, it was a 9-2 run to the Under. It makes sense for the upper tier to play it that way – as the schedule begins to take a toll, using a game against Philly as a way to slow things down makes a lot of sense. And the 76ers do contribute – while their offense remains a truly dismal #30, a full 6.6 PP100 below the #29 team, they are competing on defense, where they rate a respectable #13. Look at it another way – since winning back-to-back games three weeks ago it has been a 10-2 run across the board to the Under, showing that they understand the way they have to play it to win. They will not win tonight, but will scrap hard enough to keep this one Under the current trading level.
In the Sights, NCAA…
Plenty of fun tonight, to cure the post-Super Bowl hangover. And Chapel Hill becomes a site to see two teams trying to recover from their own hangovers, with #717 Virginia and North Carolina each having to exorcise demons after seeing big leads get away in key losses to Duke and Louisville respectively on Saturday. With quick turnarounds off of those defeats the focus goes to which team is better positioned to bounce back, and that opens a door to the Cavaliers here.
Virginia will not be shaken off of that frustrating end-game vs. Duke – the truth is that the Cavaliers were not bad at all down the stretch, it was simply a matter of the Blue Devils making shots. Over the final 5:00, Duke was only able to get off one FG attempt inside of the three-point line (the stats will show two, but one was a tip-in by Jahlil Okafor). Six times they had to settle for long triples, but they made five of them. When that happens, you tip your cap and move forward, and this team has the veteran savvy to do just that. Try this, from Justin Anderson –
“We know what we did. It doesn’t take Coach chewing us out or anything out of the ordinary. We know what we need to correct. We have to make sure we get back, with vision, and stay alert. That’s the beautiful thing about this team and the maturity and leadership. We didn’t even talk about offense after the game. We talked about what can we do better on defense. … We just stick to who we are, stick to playing the way we want to play, we’ll be fine.”
For the Tar Heels it is a different story. There were genuine breakdowns as an 18-point lead got away vs. Louisville, and an emerging problem in terms of their floor game. Some of this was dealt with last Tuesday, but here is the follow-up – over the last two games players other than Marcus Paige have turned the ball over 35 times, while only generating nine assists. The floor game has been extremely erratic, and you are going to be hard-pressed to beat Virginia if that is your weakness.