Let me start this by saying I began the week thinking I'd be ALL over Washington plus the points, ML, etc, then I dove deeper and Ive totally changed my plays...
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES -4.5
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES -210
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES ALT -9.5 +138
Im playing all 3 in some combo..
Lets start with Washington, who are the "sexy" pick for tonight, because, of course, we all sat on New Year's Day and watched the terrific Michael Penix throw the ball all over the yard against what we may have thought was a good Texas defense. Digging deeper, Texas ranks 113th in passing yards allowed in the nation, they were a great matchup on paper for the Washington offense. Texas on the season allowed 7.08 YPA at a 61% completion rate and 254.4 YPG through the air. In comparison Michigan ranks 2nd in the country against the pass, 5.77 YPA at a 55.5% completion rate and 150 YPG. Now, I get it, they play in the B10, which is a traditionally run heavy conference, and that holds true, but they did also just hold Milroe to a 16/23 line for just 116 yards while also keeping him in check on the ground to 63 total yards on 21 rushes (including the most important one of the game on 4th down). Milroe is not a prolific passer in the way Penix is, but he did put up 255 and 2 scores throwing against that same Texas defense that Washington just torched and that was in a game where he was benched the following week, well before he found his stride.
Scanning the game log, trying to find the BEST pass defense that Penix faced might take awhile, and I landed on Oregon who ranks 54th against the pass and held Penix to one score in the last game albeit with 300 yards. Bottom line here, is that Penix just hasnt faced a defense like he will tonight save for maybe Utah who was much better against the run and susceptible through the air.
Conversely Michigan has been facing tough defenses all season namely Ohio State and Penn State who rank only behind the Wolverines in total defense. Add in 18th ranked Alabama, 16th ranked Rutgers, 11th ranked Nebraska, 7th ranked Iowa, and youll see the trend start to take shape. Granted theres not a lot to love statistically about Michigan's overall 70th ranked offense, but they've shown enough to be able to attack the Huskies rush defense allowing 4.4 YPC on the season. McCarthy could make some plays with his legs as well as Corum.
And of course, the giant elephant in the room, the injury to Dillon Johnson who couldnt even get up and off the field in a critical situation that almost cost them the game, he is important as the other RBs on the team havent done much, and not being nearly 100% is a big problem for a team that could become one dimensional.
Bottom line, this is a classic offense vs defense matchup, and I favor the defense of Michigan. Harbaugh is coaching in what could be his last game at UofM and Im sure he has a huge chip on his shoulder after the allegations that centered around him this season. While all the focus will be on stopping the Wolverines on the ground, McCarthy is more than capable of beating Washington through the air, had Ewers made a better throw this would be a Michigan/Texas matchup, and the main reason the Longhorns lost seemed to be because they didnt run it enough, Baxter/Blue combined for 18 carries total for 123 yards in the game with Ewers adding 54 on 8 rushes (and hes not really a good runner).
The Wolverines have probably been the most unloved favorite I have seen 2 games in a row, it feels like everyone is lining up to bet Washington, same as they did Alabama last week, and yet the line continues to move SLIGHTLY toward Michigan, Im expecting some sharp action/money on Michigan.
MICHIGAN 31 WASHINGTON 16 final.