Peach Bowl – Ole Miss vs. Penn State
Ole Miss Rebels
Opt-Outs:
Transfer Portal: WR Bralon Brown (56 snaps), WR JJ Henry (24 snaps), OT Cedric Melton (27 snaps), TE Kyirin Heath (121 snaps), CB Demarko Williams (153 snaps), S Isheem Young (130 snaps)
Player Injuries: WR Zakhari Franklin has missed most of the season with a knee injury – he last played in Week 8. OT Micah Pettus (608 snaps) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 10.
Other News:
Penn State Nittany Lions
Opt-Outs: TE Theo Johnson (615 snaps), ED Chop Robinson (303 snaps)
Transfer Portal: WR Cristian Driver (27 snaps)
Player Injuries: WR Harrison Wallace (237 snaps) has been out since Week 9.
Other News: Penn State’s co-offensive coordinators Ja’Juan Seider and Ty Howle will continue in those roles for the Peach Bowl despite the hiring of new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki.
Potential opt-out candidates include OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (722 snaps) and CB Kalen King (481 snaps), both of whom are projected first-round picks in the NFL Draft. ED Adisa Isaac (380 snaps) and CB Daequan Hardy (335 snaps) have declared for the NFL Draft but will play in the bowl.
Former defensive coordinator Manny Diaz was hired as Duke’s new head coach.
Doc’s notes:
Doc’s Bowl rating scores has Penn State 55.0 to Mississippi 155.6, edge Nittany Lions. With such a low score for State they easily meet the criteria for Doc’s subset Bowl favorite metrics. On the Nine-key points you ask? Well, it’s 7-2 edge for Penn State as well. The sharp action is coming in on Penn State as well.
Synopsis: Penn State was a great team this year, when they weren’t playing Michigan or Ohio State that is. Their defense made them more of an elite squad, but with these defections of coaches and players it becomes worrisome vs an Ole Miss team who played well against top SEC defenses all year. The Rebels are very efficient on offense, time to prepare, have a QB who’s name is Dart, and an HBC who’s 0-2 in these exhibition contest. James Franklin’s bunch is usually ready to go in Bowl games (7-0 ATS in December), and the only question is will the Manny Diaz departure distract those players. I’ve flipped back and forth on this game so much, and I’ll just stick with Doc’s Ratings, metrics, and key-points to make a selection.
Hard Pass- Penn State -4 or -4.5
Music City Bowl – Auburn vs. Maryland
Auburn Tigers
Opt-Outs: DT Marcus Harris (533 snaps), CB DJ James (691 snaps), CB Nehemiah Pritchett (471 snaps)
Transfer Portal: QB Robby Ashford (131 snaps), WR Malcolm Johnson Jr. (312 snaps), WR Ja’Varrius Johnson (196 snaps), WR Omari Kelly (131 snaps), WR Jyaire Shorter (87 snaps), TE Tyler Fromm (151 snaps), ED Stephen Sings (75 snaps), S Marquise Gilbert (42 snaps)
Player Injuries: DE Mosiah Nasili-Kite (176 snaps) suffered a season-ending biceps injury in Week 5.
Other News: S Jaylin Simpson (650 snaps) is expected to play despite accepting a Senior Bowl invite.
Maryland Terrapins
Opt-Outs: QB Taulia Tagovailoa (780 snaps), CB Tarheeb Still (574 snaps)
Transfer Portal: RB Antwain Littleton II (244 snaps), WR Tyrese Chambers (122 snaps), TE Corey Dyches (467 snaps), TE Rico Walker (138 snaps), LB Jaishawn Barham (478 snaps), LB Riyal Wilmot (180 snaps), CB Corey Coley Jr. (305 snaps), CB Gavin Gibson (118 snaps), CB Tamarcus Cooley (23 snaps)
Player Injuries:
Other News: Billy Edwards Jr. (45 snaps) is expected to start in the bowl game with Tagovailoa opting out.
Doc Notes:
We find Maryland with the Doc Bowl Rating edge here at 136.4 to 166.8 edge over Auburn. The Tigers are the favorites here, but these jokers don’t meet the subset criteria Doc has set up here. The Nine-key points favor The Terps with an 8-1 count there. The sharp betting action has actually been with Maryland even with the opting out of their QB.
Synopsis: The last time we saw Auburn they were celebrating before the clocks hit zero Vs. Alabama. The defense for these guys was a little suspect IMO, and the offense was bland to say the least. Even though Maryland is missing their signal caller, Billy Edwards Jr. has had time to take all the snaps in practice to be prepared. When favorites don’t meet the subset Doc sets forth in a Bowl game, they’re 49-147 ATS coming into this Bowl season. I’ll roll with the Terps but will acknowledge bet size wise that it’s less sexy with Tagvailoa not playing.
1* Maryland +6.5
Orange Bowl – Florida State vs. Georgia
Florida State Seminoles
Opt-Outs: RB Trey Benson (413 snaps), WR Johnny Wilson (459 snaps), WR Keon Coleman (672 snaps), TE Jaheim Bell (451 snaps), ED Jared Verse (586 snaps), DL Fabien Lovett (337 snaps)
Transfer Portal: QB Tate Rodemaker (141 snaps), RB Rodney Hill (109 snaps), WR Winston Wright (29 snaps), TE Markeston Douglas (210 snaps), OT Bless Harris (390 snaps), OG Thomas Shrader (47 snaps), DL Joshua Farmer (427 snaps), DL Malcolm Ray (246 snaps), LB DJ Lundy (403 snaps)
Player Injuries: QB Jordan Travis remains out with a severe leg injury.
Other News: Four-star freshman QB Brock Glenn will get the start with Travis out and Rodemaker in the portal.
Georgia Bulldogs
Opt-Outs: TE Brock Bowers (520 snaps) is expected to miss the game but we’re awaiting official confirmation.
Transfer Portal: ED Marvin Jones Jr. (237 snaps), LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson (336 snaps), LB Xavian Sorey Jr. (188 snaps), CB Nyland Green (94 snaps), CB AJ Harris (89 snaps)
Player Injuries: WR Rara Thomas (391 snaps) has been out since Week 12 with a foot injury. WR Ladd McConkey and TE Brock Bowers were not fully healthy in the SEC Championship. Kirby Smart said he expects McConkey to be available.
LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson (336 snaps) has been out since Week 10 with a forearm injury. CB Julian Humphrey (168 snaps) has been out since Week 11.
OT Amarius Mims left the SEC Championship with an injury and did not return. He was not seen getting off the team plane.
Other News: QB Carson Beck (833 snaps) has confirmed that he will participate in the bowl game and be back at Georgia next season.
Doc Notes:
The sharp action started on Florida State right here but has since gone to Georgia the closer we get to kick-off. The Bowl rating for this one is Georgia 108.5 to 124.6 Florida State, edge Dawgs. Georgia easily meets the Doc Bowl favorite subset. The Doc key nine-point edges are a dead split at 4.5 to 4.5 so no edge for either side.
Synopsis: For me it’s pretty simple, but complicated to figure out. After so many runs in the playoffs, does Georgia want to be there today? I’ve seen so many times big name schools under perform in these meaningless contests. The Dawgs fit into the established Bowl system where you’re to take the team who were losers ATS on the season at a 25% or less rate. That thing has been spot on this Bowl season and is 48-28 the last ten seasons running. For Florida State they should be out to prove something after getting snubbed when going 13-0 this year. They have their 2nd string QB back for this one and have a stellar defense. However, let’s step back and think about how the ACC has performed Vs. Power Five teams this bowl season. Yes, it hasn’t been pretty at all in my opinion. If Kirby Smart has the Bulldogs ready to go, I could see a three TD win here. That said it might be best to bet live in this one, but I like giving out a side for every contest.
Pass – Lean Georgia -20
Arizona Bowl – Toledo vs. Wyoming
Toledo Rockets
Opt-Outs:
Transfer Portal: QB Dequan Finn (815 snaps), RB Peny Boone (456 snaps), OG Vinny Sciury (838 snaps), P Jonathon Batzke
Player Injuries:
Other News: QB Tucker Gleason would likely get the start if Finn is unavailable after entering the transfer portal. CB Quinyon Mitchell (781 snaps), a projected Day 2 NFL Draft pick, is a potential opt-out candidate.
Wyoming Cowboys
Opt-Outs:
Transfer Portal: CB Kolbey Taylor (536 snaps)
Player Injuries: OT Caden Barnett (608 snaps) was limited to eight snaps over the final two games due to an injury.
Other News: Head coach Craig Bohl announced that he will retire after the bowl game. Offensive coordinator Tim Polasek was hired as the new head coach at North Dakota State.
Doc Notes:
The sharp action has come in on Wyoming for this one. The Doc Bowl ratings have it very close with 151 for The Cowboys to Toledo’s 143.7, edge Rockets. Wyoming started out as a pick here but has since went to 3.5-point favorites. That said, The Cowboys do not meet the Doc Bowl subset for favorites. They do however edge out Toledo in Doc’s key nine-point bowl list, with a 5-4 edge.
Synopsis: Man, in most Bowl season’s Toledo would be an easy pick here, but the QB and best defensive player possibly sitting out I can’t bring myself to bet on this MAC team today. Wyoming is a well-coached bunch, and it will be his last game before retiring. That motivation Vs. the loser of the MAC championship game, makes me believe Motivation is with Wyoming is this exhibition contest.
Hard Pass – Lean to Wyoming -3.5
Best Of Fortune
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