Thursday started out good but ended on a downer. You just can’t survive turning the ball over that much Oklahoma, but great come back to take a two-score lead. Unfortunately, they don’t pay out until the clock hits zero. Boston College took full advantage of a disinterested SMU squad. NCST didn’t live up to their hype (as Doc was concerned about) losing late to Kansas State, and Rutgers Vs. Miami went about like I expected. Well, we’ve got four games today, and I haven’t slept so let’s get at it here.
Gator Bowl – Clemson vs. Kentucky
Clemson Tigers
Opt-Outs: DL Ruke Orhorhoro (409 snaps), LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (689 snaps), CB Nate Wiggins (494 snaps)
Transfer Portal: WR Beaux Collins (636 snaps), TE Sage Ennis (173 snaps), OL Mitchell Mayes (352 snaps), CB Toriano Pride (150 snaps), S Andrew Mukuba (581 snaps)
Player Injuries: WR Brannon Spector, OG Marcus Tate, and S Jalyn Phillips have been out since Week 9 with undisclosed injuries. WRs Antonio Williams and Beaux Collins have also missed several games with lower body injuries. CB Sheridan Jones will miss the game.
Other News: DT Tyler Davis is an opt-out candidate to watch. LB Barrett Carter announced he’s returning to Clemson next season.
Kentucky Wildcats
Opt-Outs:
Transfer Portal: RB JuTahn McClain (82 snaps), WR Dekel Crowdus (45 snaps), TE Izayah Cummings (124 snaps), DL Jamarius Dinkins (89 snaps), ED Keaten Wade (371 snaps), LB Martez Thrower (101 snaps), S Jalen Geiger (253 snaps)
Player Injuries: TEs Jordan Dingle and Josh Kattus have been sidelined with undisclosed injuries.
Other News: RB Ray Davis (529 snaps) and CB Andru Phillips (653 snaps) declared for the NFL Draft but are expected to play in the bowl. TE Jordan Dingle (282 snaps) was in the portal but removed himself.
Doc Notes:
The sharp money has come in hot and heavy on Kentucky in this matchup, moving the Wildcats from +7 down to +4.5 now. The Doc Bowl ratings has this one as a dead-nut tie with 120.2 for both. Clemson just made the cut for Doc’s favorite subset category. Then finally in the Doc Nine-point edges, that is hugely in favor of Kentucky with an 8-1 edge.
Synopsis: The ACC hasn’t shown us much outside of beating up on a bunch of Group 5’s, but in fact Syracuse is the lone loser of the Power five schools this Bowl season. Until this year Clemson for some time now has been head and shoulders above the ACC however. They hit their stride late going 4-0 SU & ATS after winning the turnover edge in all four contests. That was the key to all of Clemson’s FBS games, whichever team had the TO edge they covered the number. Kentucky had issues in four games this year with turnovers but cleaned it up later in the season. After beating Florida, The Wildcats never could really get going, finishing the SEC schedule with a 1-5 run, and then they upset Louisville to end the season on a high note. You guessed it, who happens to be an ACC team. Neither team had much to write home about based on their preseason expectations. Clemson had a stellar defense, but the defections of these Tiger defensive players may come up huge. They were the key reasons for the 4-0 run here, and I’ll go ahead and ignore the 2.5 to 3.0-point value lost here, and stick with Kentucky.
1* Kentucky +4.5
Sun Bowl – Oregon State vs. Notre Dame
Oregon State Beavers
Opt-Outs: OT Tailese Fuaga (700 snaps), WR Anthony Gould (517 snaps)
Transfer Portal: QB DJ Uiagalelei (704 snaps), QB Aidan Chiles (100 snaps), TE Jack Velling (585 snaps), TE Jake Overman (56 snaps), LB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (741 snaps), CB Jermod McCory (410 snaps), S Akili Arnold (664 snaps), K Atticus Sappington (13-14 FG)
Player Injuries: RB Damien Martinez (488 snaps) was suspended for the bowl game after being arrested on suspicion of DUI. OT Joshua Gray (682 snaps) and OG Henley Bloomfield (619 snaps) missed the regular season finale.
Other News: Former Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith accepted an offer to be the new head coach at Michigan State. Former Oregon State offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren followed Smith to Michigan State to take on the same role. Former Oregon State defensive coordinator Trent Bray was promoted to become the new head coach, but he won’t be with the team for the bowl.
Former passing game coordinator Kefense Hynson will serve as the interim head coach for the bowl game while former cornerbacks coach Anthony Perkins will serve as the interim defensive coordinator.
With Uiagalelei and Chiles in the transfer portal, QB Ben Gulbranson is expected to start after starting the final eight games of the 2022 season.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Opt-Outs: QB Sam Hartman (678 snaps), RB Auric Estime (388 snaps), OT Joe Alt (713 snaps), OT Blake Fisher (710 snaps), LB Marist Liufau (595 snaps), CB Cam Hart (572 snaps), CB Thomas Harper (438 snaps)
Transfer Portal: WR Tobias Merriweather (378 snaps), WR Rico Flores Jr. (404 snaps), WR Chris Tyree (276 snaps), WR Braylon James (22 snaps), TE Holden Staes (369 snaps), C Zeke Correll (558 snaps), ED Nana Osafo-Mensah (252 snaps), DL Aidan Keanaaina (40 snaps), S Ramon Henderson (304 snaps), S Antonio Carter (72 snaps)
Player Injuries: TE Mitchell Evans (425 snaps) suffered a season-ending torn ACL in Week 9. OG Rocco Spindler (559 snaps) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 10.
Other News: DL Howard Cross announced he’s returning for another season. S Xavier Watts has yet to announce a decision on his future but will play in the bowl game.
With QB Sam Hartman opting out, redshirt freshman Steve Angeli is expected to get his first career start in the Sun Bowl.
Offensive coordinator Gerad Parker accepted an offer to be the new head coach at Troy.
Doc Notes:
The sharp action has been with The Beavers here from the start despite all the defections from Oregon State. That’s probably because Notre Dame isn’t faring too much better, minus they’re not losing their coach. No matter Doc dredges on here, and his Bowl Ratings have ORST with 104.6 to The Irish at 117.1, edge Beavers. Notre Dame does meet the criteria for Bowl favorites in Doc’s subset rating, but Oregon State has a 7-2 edge in Doc’s new nine-point Bowl scoring system. Which has started out with great results but has since levelled off, hitting around .500 (full transparency).
Synopsis: The traditional 2PM start for the Sun Bowl on CBS lives on, but it just doesn’t feel the same with it not being New Years Eve. In fact, the Bowl name and start time is about the only thing with any normalcy for this contest. I can’t help but remember the last time a team lost this many coaching positions in a Bowl game, and that was the Drew Breese lead Purdue Boilermakers in last year. For those that don’t remember they lost by a gazillion. This all being said, I don’t have a feel for this contest.
Pass – Lean Notre Dame -6.0 (based on My Bowl subset for Favorites)
Liberty Bowl – Iowa State vs. Memphis
Iowa State Cyclones
Opt-Outs: CB T.J. Tampa (747 snaps)
Transfer Portal: RB Cartevious Norton (240 snaps), RB Eli Sanders (195 snaps), OG Darrell Simmons Jr. (142 snaps), LB Carston Marshall (64 snaps), CB Terrell Crosby Jr. (51 snaps), S Treyveon McGee (54 snaps)
Player Injuries: S Malik Verdon (496 snaps) missed the regular season finale with a fractured forearm and his status is in question for the bowl game. S Ben Nikkel (267 snaps) also missed the regular season finale.
Other News: DB TJ Tampa (747 snaps), is a potential opt-out candidate to watch.
Memphis Tigers
Opt-Outs:
Transfer Portal: OT Makylan Pounders (673 snaps), OG Davion Carter (852 snaps), S Cameron Smith (627 snaps)
Player Injuries: WR Koby Drake (401 snaps) has been out since Week 12 with an undisclosed injury. CB Julian Barnett (322 snaps) missed the regular season finale. ED Andres Fox (181 snaps) missed the final two games.
Other News: This game will be played in Memphis’s home stadium.
Doc Notes:
Iowa State is where the sharp action has been going with this Bowl game. The Cyclones do meet the Subset Bowl criteria for favorites here and have a Doc Bowl rating edge of 133,4 to Memphis’ 176.9 as well. Per usual I move onto my nine-point keys, and I find that Iowa State is leading there at a 7-2 edge.
Synopsis: Here we go with another P5 Vs. G5 matchup, and those are 7-1 Power 5 SU & ATS this bowl season. Iowa State looks poised to roll over a Memphis team, that well frankly, isn’t as good as recent Memphis teams. The Bowl game itself is being played in Memphis, and so Big Ole Motivation steps in. Does either team give two-shats about being here really. Iowa State has an opponent who doesn’t offer much to get ramped up about in an Exhibition contest. Memphis’ players can’t really get to enjoy the perks of going to a Bowl game when it’s in a city where they already reside. All I can do is fall back to the three categories I track for Bowl teams, but that doesn’t mean I must wager on the game.
Hard Pass – Lean Iowa State -10
Cotton Bowl – Missouri vs. Ohio State
Missouri Tigers
Opt-Outs:
Transfer Portal: LB Dameon Wilson (45 snaps)
Player Injuries: LB Ty’Ron Hopper (563 snaps) has been out since Week 11 with an ankle injury. CB Ennis Rakestraw (466 snaps) has been out since Week 12 with an undisclosed injury, and his return is unlikely. LB Chad Bailey (197 snaps) is out for the season. Head coach Eli Drinkwitz said he expects all injured players to be back in time for the bowl game except for Rakestraw and Hopper.
Other News: Eli Drinkwitz is 0-2 in bowl games. Missouri is seeking its first bowl win and 11-win season since 2014.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Opt-Outs: RB Miyan Williams (107 snaps)
Transfer Portal: QB Kyle McCord (703 snaps), RB Chip Trayanum (252 snaps), RB Evan Pryor (31 snaps), WR Julian Fleming (552 snaps), C Vic Cutler (21 snaps), ED Omari Abor (29 snaps), CB Jyaire Brown (48 snaps), CB Ryan Turner (27 snaps), CB Cam Martinez (28 snaps), S Kye Stokes (10 snaps)
Player Injuries: S Lathan Ransom has been out since Week 9 with a leg injury.
Other News: WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (649 snaps), a projected top-five pick in the NFL draft, is an opt-out candidate to watch. Other opt-out candidates include RB TreVeyon Henderson (351 snaps), TE Cade Stover (581 snaps), ED JT Tuimoloau (621 snaps), DL Michael Hall Jr. (368 snaps), LB Tommy Eichenberg (607 snaps), and S Josh Proctor (552 snaps).
WR Emeka Egbuka (397 snaps), OG Donovan Jackson (768 snaps), ED Jack Sawyer (549 snaps), DL Tyleik Williams (586 snaps), CB Jordan Hancock (541 snaps), and CB Denzel Burke (506 snaps) announced they will play in the Cotton Bowl.
QB Devin Brown could be in line to make his first career start with McCord in the transfer portal, although he’s been limited by injuries all year. Seventh-year senior Oregon State transfer Tristan Gebbia could get the start if Brown is unavailable. RB TreVeyon Henderson (351 snaps) announced he’ll return next season.
Doc Notes:
The sharp action started out with Missouri here but has since switched over to Ohio State as of early this morning. In Doc’s Bowl ratings Ohio State comes in at 95.9, and The Tigers are 121.8, edge Buckeyes. As for Bowl favorite subsets Ohio State easily meets those criteria set by Doc. The new nine-point keys however do show in favor of Missouri with a 6-3 edge for The Tigers.
Synopsis: Missouri has historically been a bad Bowl team, and HBC with Drinkwitz sitting at 0-2 with Mizzu himself in this situation. However, it’s been a magical season for this team, and the HBC has had his teams perform well against elite offensive programs such as Ohio State. Going 15-5 ATS Vs. teams averaging 425 or more yds per game (Avg final score has been Missouri 31 to 27)The Buckeyes have The sharps on them, but internally Day may have somethings going on that could be a distraction for this exhibition game today.
1* Missouri +4.5
Best of Fortune
Doc