3* Iowa St -7 to Oklahoma St
Where: Jack Trice Stadium
Forecast: Sunny. High 57. Winds becoming East 5-9 mph.
-This matchup pits an unranked 2 loss team favored by 7 against an undefeated Top 10 team. That generally gets my attention.( Even more so in CBB. Tipoff in 18 days.)
-In the Cyclones 2 losses to Iowa and Baylor they had significant statistical edges. The most prominent being that they outgained the Hawkeyes by 166 and outgained Baylor by a 197.
-Iowa St is #5 in ypp margin, (+2.37) Okie Light is #65 in ypp margin.
-Iowa St #3 in Total Defense. OSU # 69 in Total Offense.
-Note: Cyclones Defense allowing 97 rushing ypg, and have only given up 4 total rushing touchdowns this season.
-I'll note that Gundy and his Cowboys are an impressive 14-4 ats as a dog since 2016, 7-3 on the road in the interest of disclosure. No doubt the Pokes are off to a great start and are coming off a stretch of 4 games where they won at Boise 21-20, and were then victorious in 3 straight against Top 25 teams K St, Baylor, and Texas. I think you have to wonder how much OK St has left in the tank after that stretch.
-Also like the fact that OSU is coming off a big emotional win down in Daryll K against the Horns. I was on the Cowboys in that game and that long interception return for a TD by Taylor changed that game dramatically in a big way. Texas was about to get away from them early.
-The Cowboys got a dose of that stud tail back from Texas and he was giving them problems for sure. Now they get another future NFL rb in Breece Hall.
I think the Cyclones defense can limit the Cowboys running game and force them into being unbalanced. If Matt Campbell is going back to the Big 12 Championship Game they can't afford to lose here. ISU has 20 starters back from that team that went on to beat Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. I believe the biggest edge is the Iowa St Defense vs the OK St Offense.
This is a Big Game in the Big 12. Have to believe the Cyclones will be sky high for this one and I like them to be the more physical and dominant team. I look for Campbell to establish the power running game with Hall to set up the play action pass attack. Purdy fires the winning shots.
Jack Trice Stadium will be off the hook. Lay it.