9-0 Dawg run and cashed an easy 5 unit play vs Tech last weekend. It’s been a tremendously profitable year betting Dawg games, no matter what happens this weekend. Just be advised…after 9 straight wins, I’m due for regression. Don’t blindly follow. I'd hate to feel like im losing others money...my money I'm fine pissing away. If it agrees with what you are already thinking, great. But, for all you know I’m just some guy in my wife’s basement, throwing darts at the wall. Although if this one loses…where were you the previous weeks? JK.... It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Anywho…
SEC Champ Game Saturday!! The immovable object vs the unstoppable force. Or, whatever clichés you would like to use. I’ve been going over and over things and trying to decide which side to take. This is not like last week where Vegas was just giving us a gift with -28 vs Tech. I can make a case for either team and for either total. So here it goes..
LSU hasn’t seen a D like Georgia’s all year….this is true. Georgia hasn’t seen an O like LSU’s all year…this is also true. The Dawgs are only allowing teams to score 40% of their usual output. Which, with LSU avg 48ppg, would put LSU around 19 points. I don’t think anyone believes that LSU will score less than 21 on Saturday. “But Diddy!! Auburn held them to 23”. This is one of my favorites. Dawg fans want people to dismiss the hiccup vs SC but, yet ,LSU putting up 500 damn yards and only scoring 23 somehow is the truth and no dismissing that. That was by far their lowest output. It happens. We had one….so did they….deal with it.
Auburn also did it by rushing 3 and dropping the rest. They have two big NFL studs and can do that. I’m not sure GA can get that same pressure rushing 3.
Georgia has the top D in the SEC and one of the top D’s in the nations…statistically speaking. But, no one on the D will make 1st team All Defensive SEC team. That seems strange doesn’t it? They are all very good and talented and play as a unit. But, there is no game changer on that side of the ball. No Roquan, no Baker, etc. like in years past. In games like this you need a stud to rely on. You need game changers. I don't think they are nearly as good against the pass as the stats suggest. Just my opinion...I could be wrong.
On offense, the GA O has struggled to put up points all year. Avg. around 25 in SEC play. Fromm has been under 50% in his last 3 games and is now down another outside weapon. The receivers are now Simmons, Landers, Blaylock, and Robertson. None of these guys scare anyone or, are game breakers. Hell, Blaylock and Robertson, have the build of Publix bag boys.
But….I love my “buts” don’t I? Kirby and the Dawgs rise to challenges. This year, vs Florida we controlled and went and put 24 up with 10min left in 4th…vs Auburn the Dawgs had 21 going into the 4th. 21+ vs much better D’s than LSU. Don’t give me LSU is better on D becuae the last two games…. A&M didn’t want to be there after us and Ark-Kansas is Ark-Awful..
Point is this team CAN score if they have to. Don’t let the smooth taste fool ya. So, the avg per game is a little low but, in games that they seem really plugged in for(Auburn, Florida) vs much more legit D’s than LSU’s, the Dawgs have shown they are capable of putting up a TD a qrt, before sitting on leads
LSU will be dealing with an experienced big game QB in Fromm. Plus, just as highly recruited/talented players as they have…maybe more…a coaching staff that all they’ve done in the last 2 years, is play big games like this…this will be LSU’s 1st taste of bright lights in a long time…The Dawgs have been in games like this multiple times recently….Auburn(SECCG),Sooners(Rose Bowl), Bama(SECCG, Natty)
Now, I don’t think the Dawgs will be able to sit on a lead and get comfortable Saturday. Like they have this season many times. To me, the Georgia D is good. Untested….played a bunch of 2nd/3rd QB’s, WR’s turned QB’s, etc…Burrow, those WR’s, and Brady will find success eventually. LSU will get theirs…They’ll put up 28 to 34..BANK IT
Georgia has experience on their side and this will be their 3rd consecutive trip to this game. Kirby has frustrated Hurts and Tua in the 1st halves and will look to do the same to Burrow….for a bit anyway. But, just like the last 2 years…the offenses figure stuff out. You can’t shut down big time O’s these days for 4 qrts. Hell, Michigan’s BS offense, put up damn near 30 on Ohio States “top ranked” D. It happens eventually…
Enough talk. I’m betting my hard earned money on…
Over 55 1unit ….the SECCG is like 13-3 with the over in recent memory. Inside, fast track with fast athletes, good QB’s, smart coaching …. a 34-28 game sounds about right.
LSU over 30.5 -130 1unit…..If they don’t score 30, I’ll be amazed and that means GA is definitely winning or its close coming down to the end…so, I’ll take that.
Dawgs +225 .5 unit…. This is gambling right? I get an experienced big game QB, a proven big game coach, 2 of the 3 facets of the game(defense, special teams) are clearly in the Dawgs favor, with the crowd it’ll be basically a home game, the bright lights of the game are something the Dawgs are used to…as stated above this will be their 3rd visit to Benz for this game and have played at least one team here(18’ Bama) that was better than this LSU team and almost beat them. So yea…I’ll take my chances at +225
Good luck my friends....