I've got several picks already for this weekend. I'll put them here first, and for the last I have my Baylor vs Oklahoma pick. The write-up for that game is quite long, so be forewarned. Hopefully, it's somewhat intelligent and useful. So, here we go:
Iowa State -7 vs Texas. I am now seeing 7.5 on this game. I posted a few thoughts earlier this week. I still see the ISU pass offense vs. the Texas pass defense as a huge mismatch that favors the Cyclones. Iowa State rolls here.
Florida -7 at Missouri The season has gone downhill fast for the Tigers. Tigers have owned Florida in the past, but there isn't much growl left in these Tigers. Florida rolls.
Texas Tech +3 vs TCU, TTU ML, Over 55.5 I'm not sold on this TCU team. Off a heartbreaker last week, OU is on deck for the Frogs. Tech wins outright. Not sold on the TCU D. I've called them a Jekyll and Hyde unit. We won't see the same Frog D this week that we saw last week.
Auburn +3 vs Georgia Going with the home dog here
ADDED PLAYS
West Virginia +14
California +6
Kansas/Oklahoma State Over 67.5
Iowa -2.5
And now, for the big one Saturday night:
Baylor vs Oklahoma – Styles Make Fights
Styles make fights. That’s how I think about this match-up between Oklahoma and Baylor. Oklahoma is a big play, explosive offensive team. Baylor is a gut it out defensive team. This is a tough game to handicap because the styles ultimately are different, and each team has ingredients to give the other a difficult go of it. Oklahoma will try to play a “pretty” game and Baylor an “ugly” game. I believe that just going by traditional numbers will not be an effective handicapping tool in this game. I will look at this game from the perspective of what we might see when Oklahoma has the ball and when Baylor has the ball. I will also take a quick look at some of the intangibles that could play into this game.
When Oklahoma Has The Ball
The Oklahoma offense versus the Baylor defense will be the most anticipated match-up of this game. OU’s offensive numbers are scary: 587 YPG. 9.3 YPP. Both lead the nation. They average 6.9 YPR, and 17.5 YPPC (yards per pass completion). YPR is 2nd nationally, YPPC is 4th. OU’s offense is explosive and they rely on that explosiveness to score quickly. In reality, OU is a running team, rushing the ball 57% of the time, passing 43%. They lead the Big 12 in passing offense at 338 YPG (5th nationally), even though only K-State has attempted fewer passes among Big 12 teams. The keys for Baylor’s defense are: 1. Prevent, or at least minimize the big play; 2. Win the line of scrimmage; 3. Get off the field on 3rd down. I think Baylor can accomplish keys 1 & 2, but 3 could be a struggle. OU likes to use the pass to generate big plays. Two factors here for Baylor: they have sacked opposing QB’s 29 times (12th), and their YPPC allowed is 10.1 (6th). The key here is to get to the QB and force him into shorter throws and not the deep throws. The other key here is to make sure that the 10-yard pass stays a 10-yard pass and does not turn into a 40 or 50-yard gain. This is what makes CeeDee Lamb so dangerous. How about stopping the run? Jalen Hurts is the Sooners’ leading rusher, and second in the Big 12. You must watch out for the designed QB runs. Baylor’s run defense is solid, averaging 3.4 YPR allowed (23rd). The Baylor D has 68 tackles for losses (13th). Make OU grind it out. Their offense is used to quick scores, not slogging it down the field. Key #3 is to get off the field on third down. The Bears D has not been good here, giving up a 39% conversion rate (71st). This is a problem in that it keeps the Sooners on the field. The Sooners convert 3rd downs 48% of the time and have only punted 20 times all season. Baylor needs to find ways to gum up the Sooners offense, primarily by pressuring the QB, and bottling up the running game just enough to create problems. The Bears are good at creating turnovers, 18 on the season (13th). The Sooners do a good job of holding onto the ball only turning it over 10 times. Baylor is not going to shut this offense down, but they can slow it down. OU has scored at least 34 points in every game. Baylor has only given up 30 points once – and that was a double overtime game.
When Baylor Has The Ball
Unlike Oklahoma, Baylor’s offense is struggling. Last Saturday, they generated 294 yards of total offense – in a triple overtime game. The numbers are generally solid, but not eye-popping like Oklahoma’s. Baylor will – in the immortal words of Hank Stram – “matriculate the ball down the field.” The Baylor offense needs to keep Charlie Brewer vertical, and that has been a challenge. The Bears have allowed 24 sacks (108th) and the Sooners have sacked opposing QB’s 23 times (37th). Baylor has been tackled for losses 61 times (99th) and the Sooners have 67 TFL’s (14th). The Bears are a bit beat up on the offensive line, and they will need to find a way to hold their own on the line of scrimmage. The Bears will get yards in smaller chunks. The strength of the Baylor offense is its passing game. They do throw for about 270 yards per game and 13.1 YPPC. They have very good speed at wide receiver and they are good at getting yards after the catch. I look for the Bears to move the ball through the air, but to struggle moving it on the ground, especially in the first half. Look for the Bears to take a few shots down the field against this Oklahoma defense.
Intangibles
This is the biggest stage the Baylor players have ever seen. The Sooners have been here before. But I cannot get past the fact that this Baylor has a toughness and resilience about it unlike any I have ever seen. They find ways to win. There is no QB in the country I want more than Charlie Brewer with the game on the line. I’m not sure the Sooners can match any of this.
The Game
The overall key here is whether or not Oklahoma buries Baylor early. They are certainly capable of it. If the Bears keep it close early, the Sooners will be forced to play Baylor’s game. One of the keys to K-State’s win over the Sooners was that OU never got ahead by more than 10 points early. This allowed KSU to play its game. If the Bears keep it close early, flex their defensive muscles, and get some timely offensive play, this game could be theirs for the taking. If the Sooners come out early and establish themselves, this will be a long, quiet night in Waco.
The Spread
Oklahoma is a 10-point favorite. In conference games, the Sooners are 1-5 against the spread, including the loss to Kansas State as a 23-point favorite. The Bears are 4-2 ATS in conference games, including 3 outright wins as underdogs.
If you want to give me 10 points, an undefeated team playing at home, better against the spread than the favorite and can play a game that will slow down the favorite, I’ll take it.
30-24. Not saying which team wins.
Bets: Baylor +10, OU/BU Under 67.5