I went 8-6 last week including the 3-3 in my 6 pick contest and I hit my biggest bet on the New Mexico/Wyoming Under. Took two really tough bets and one of my bad beats was on Scott Van Pelts' Bad Beats this week and that makes 4 times this year. Neb. at Colo, Coastal Carolina/Georgia Southern under, Tenn/BYU under, and Colorado/Arizona First half under. It has only been 8 weeks and I have seen my losing bad beat 4 times. He only picks about 3 or 4 games a week, WTF, that is some tough luck. Sorry, I had to vent, every better remembers damn near all of their bad beats. I am still waiting to see my winning play on his show, haha. I wanted to get some of these in early before the line moves. My contest lines aren't up until Wed. afternoon, so hopefully some of my plays I am looking to put in there don't move too much with me keeping off the contest line. Here is what I have so far this week. I will try to find time post my contest plays Wed.
New Mexico/Hawaii Over 70... Both teams strengths on offense are both teams weaknesses on defense. Weather is suppose to be good too.
SMU -13.5... Houston was outplayed by UConn, I watched most of that game doing live plays. If it wasn't for UConn shooting themselves in the foot time after time, they could have won that game. Key note, Houston is down to there third or fourth string QB and they are playing slower for totals bettors. Houston cannot protect their QB and if Tune plays, he will be with a bum hammy, good luck on him moving.
Duke +3.5 UNC off of 6 OT game and Duke off of a miserable turnover game. Duke spent less energy getting their asses kicked early at Virginia while UNC put everything into their game.
Wisc/Ohio State Under 1st half... line isn't up, but I am looking to get a 24.5 I hope, no play at 23.
Virginia -3.5... Louisville has very little pass rush and Perkins is dangerous with time, which his line hasn't given him this season. I think he will get some this game. Louisville is ranked 120th in defensive sack percentage. Also, Louisville doesn't protect their own QB and Virginia is very good in the trenches on defense. I am old school on liking teams that have advantages in the trenches on some plays.
Pitt -5.5... Miami is all over the place, their offense is terrible and they have a horrible O-line facing a Pitt d-line that can completely wreck the game like they did in Syracuse. Pitt is a bit inconsistent, but not nearly as inconsistent as Miami. I think they make the QB uncomfortable all game and win the field position battle most of the game.
NMSU/Georgia Southern Over 53.5...I see both offenses having a decent day here with good strengths vs the defensive weaknesses for each team.
Western Kentucky +5.5...Marshall off of a huge road win and I think the key to beating Marshall is stopping the run. WKU does that very well, which should help them against Marshall's QB Green who will make mistakes the more chances he takes to the air. I see this game low scoring and coming down to a final drive.
Cal Under team total first half, probably around 5...I don't see how they get any points unless their defense or special teams gets them. Cal couldn't score on Oregon State who has an absolute shit defense. Cal's backup QB is no bueno. I see them getting skunked in the first half while Utah might be playing their backup QB which will mean they will be taking less chances and relying on their defense hopefully making no stupid turnovers to give Cal cheap points. Utah's defense is absolutely rolling right now.
Troy/GSU Over 66 I don't see how these defenses stop one another. Troy's defense is even worse than it looks on paper considering they have played Campbell, South Alabama, and Akron. You throw out those garbage offenses, they are giving up 46 pts. per game to the 3 teams they have played with an offensive pulse. Georgia State needs to set up the pass with the run because Troy cannot handle receivers. Both teams are top ten in plays per game. GSU doesn't have a defense either, Texas State put up 34 on them and ran for 204, and they can't run the ball. This is a last team with the ball wins type of video game shit.
ML Parlay...2-0 on these so far. Pays +106
Oklahoma/App State/Iowa/USC/Southern Miss
This is what I have bet on so far and looking to bet if the number is right. I will be back with my contest plays and others I spot when 1st half lines are ready.