1. Nebraska (4-8 SU/7-5 ATS in 2018)
Returning Starters: 13 (7 offense, 6 defense)
2019 Recruiting Class Rank: #18
It was a rough beginning to head coach Scott Frost’s first year in Lincoln. The Huskers started off 0-6 for the first time in school history, but they improved dramatically in their final six games going 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS. Nebraska went from getting out-scored by 15 ppg in the first six games to out-scoring their opponents by 13 ppg in their final six. This year Nebraska welcomes back 13 starters led by QB Adrian Martinez who had 3,246 total yards and 25 total TD’s as a true freshman. The schedule also sets up nicely as Nebraska avoids Michigan, Michigan St and Penn St from the Big Ten East Division and they host Iowa, Ohio St, Northwestern and Wisconsin. After losing five games by a TD or less in 2018, I think the Huskers at least double their season win total from a year ago.
2. UCLA (3-9 SU/5-6-1 ATS in 2018)
Returning Starters: 19 (9 offense, 10 defense)
2019 Recruiting Class Rank: #40
Chip Kelly’s first season in “La La Land” was one to forget as the Bruins started off 0-5 for the first time since 1943. However, the Bruins did show improvement especially on offense in the latter part of the season averaging 486 ypg on offense in their final 4 games (only 346 ypg in the first 8). This year the Bruins welcome back a nation-high 19 starters led by RB Joshua Kelly (1,243 rush yards last year). Despite playing one of the toughest schedules in the country, I think the Bruins can at least double their season win total in 2019.
3. Arkansas (2-10 SU/5-7 ATS in 2018)
Returning Starters: 12 (6 offense, 6 defense)
2019 Recruiting Class Rank: #23
It was a season to forget for first-year head coach Chad Morris in 2018 as the Razorbacks lost 10 games for the first time in school history. However, they were better than that record indicated as they lost four games by a TD or less. This year they are in much better shape as they bring in a couple of transfers at QB in Ben Hicks (all-time passing leader in SMU history) and Nick Starkel (was at Texas A&M). This year’s non-conference schedule will see Arkansas favored by double-digits in all four games and I think they can pull one upset in SEC play which would mean a 3-win improvement).
4. Florida St (5-7 SU/4-8 ATS in 2018)
Returning Starters: 16 (8 offense, 8 defense)
2019 Recruiting Class Rank: #19
Last year was a disastrous first season for head coach Willie Taggart as the Seminoles suffered their first losing season since 1976 (Bobby Bowden’s first in Tallahassee!). The Noles’ offense only averaged 21.9 ppg (worst since 1981) and the defense allowed a school record 31.5 ppg. This season the Seminoles are in much better shape as they return 16 starters and the player’s have bought in. I would favor this year’s FSU team by at least a TD over last year’s team and I think they could win eight games or so (3-win improvement).
5. Virginia Tech (6-7 SU/6-7 ATS in 2018)
Returning Starters: 16 (6 offense, 10 defense)
2019 Recruiting Class Rank: #26
Last year the Hokies suffered their first losing season since 1992! This year, the arrow looks to be pointing way up with the return of 16 starters including 10 on a defense that was ravaged by injury and inexperience a year ago. On offense, they welcome back QB Ryan Willis who had 3,070 total yards and 28 total TD’s last year. The schedule also sets up nicely as they avoid the top four teams from the ACC Atlantic Division (Clemson, Florida St, Syracuse and NC State) and they play a pair of FCS teams in non-conference. I think the Hokies could win as many as 9 games this season (3-win improvement).
Honorable Mention:
Central Michigan (1-11 SU/5-7 ATS in 2018)-Last year the Chippewas suffered their worst season in school history but things are looking up in 2019 thanks to new head coach Jim McElwain. We think CMU could top last year’s win total by Week 3 (home games vs Albany and Akron).
Air Force (5-7 SU/6-4-2 ATS in 2018)-The Falcons are flying under the radar after back-to-back losing seasons but this year’s team welcomes back 14 starters and I think they will win at least 7 games.
Tennessee (5-7 SU/5-7 ATS in 2018)-After a somewhat disappointing first season under head coach Jeremy Pruitt, the Volunteers welcome back 16 returning starters including 10 on offense. Pruitt also signed a Top 15 recruiting class and I think Tennessee improves by a couple of wins this season.
Florida Atlantic (5-7 SU/3-8-1 ATS in 2018)-After winning 11 games in year one under head coach Lane Kiffin, the Owls were a huge disappointment last year. This year, I think they contend for the CUSA crown.
North Carolina (2-9 SU/6-5 ATS in 2018)-The Tar Heels welcome back 14 starters from a team that was much better than their 2-9 record last year (lost 5 games by a TD or less). I'm not high overly optimistic about new head coach Mack Brown but this team is capable of doubling their win total from last year.