Obviously, major news in the college football world yesterday as Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer was put on paid administrative leave. I saw a lot of tweets and posts speculating how much to downgrade Ohio State if Meyer won't be a part of the team this year and thought I'd give my two cents.
While most shops have taken Ohio State odds off the board in most situations, I did get a season win total bet of UNDER 10.5 down before they took it off the board.
First, let's talk how much a coach like Urban Meyer is worth. If Meyer had retired at the end of last season and the Buckeyes replaced him with an "average" coach, I would have downgraded the Buckeyes around four points. One of those points would be for the loss of Meyer's superior weekly preparation, another point would be for his in-game decision making and two of the points would be for his outstanding recruiting prowess.
However at this point in a season, recruiting is not that big of a factor and therefore I am "only" downgrading the Buckeyes around 3 points in my power ratings. I came to the conclusion of downgrading them three points as two of those points would be the potential loss of Meyer's weekly prep and an in-game decision making. However, I also included an additional point of downgrade for all of the distractions surrounding the program right now.
If I plug a 3-point or so downgrade into my win/loss projections for the season, I would downgrade the Buckeyes only a half-win (10.5 to 10). In my No. 1 through No. 130 overall power rankings, I would downgrade Ohio State from No. 3 in the country with Meyer to No. 6 without him.
Keep in mind, if Meyer were to come back from administrative leave and actually coach this season, then I would still downgrade Ohio State one point as they will still have to deal with a lot of distractions.
In summary:
If Meyer coaches this fall: Downgrade Ohio State 1-point
If Meyer doesn't coach this season or misses the start of the season: Downgrade Ohio State 3-points
If Meyer retires and doesn't coach Ohio State again: Downgrade Ohio State 4-points
Personally, I think Ohio State is much better off than they were seven years ago when they lost head coach Jim Tressel in the summer. That year the Buckeyes went from 12-1 to 6-7 but keep in mind, they also had several players that were suspended at least five games including quarterback Terrelle Pryor, their top rusher, top WR and best offensive lineman.
This year the Buckeyes still have the most talented roster in the Big Ten and also have not one, but two experienced college head coaches in defensive coordinator Greg Schiano (11 years at Rutgers) and offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson (6 years at Indiana). I think the Buckeyes will be okay without Meyer for this season but their recruiting could take a major hit as there's a ton of negative recruiting out there right now especially with the early signing day in December.
Finally, note that last year we saw Oklahoma lose a Hall of Fame head coach in Bob Stoops after spring practice and that didn't seem to hurt the Sooners too much. At the time of that news, I downgraded Oklahoma 1-1.5 points. The difference was they had a clear vision of the future in hiring Lincoln Riley immediately and the Sooners didn't have to deal with the distractions so close to the season.