Got my way too early Top 15 P5+ND Fantasy QBs. Please feel free to tear this apart. I will not be offended. It is very early in the process and this is more or less a rough draft. I expect a lot to change as the summer goes on and we get a more clear cut idea of some of the new names at the big schools.
1. Khalil Tate (Arizona) - Not going to get cute with it. Fantasy wise, this guy should be a beast again. I'd imagine he and Bryce Love will be the Top 2 picks. I really like the Sumlin hire for Arizona too. Could really be a great fit.
2. Kyler Murray (Oklahoma) - I didn't realize he was such a good baseball player. Hopefully that doesn't mess with his love of football at all. He's been there a couple years now though and they have some great weapons returning, along with Riley. Should put up monster numbers.
3. Will Grier (West Virginia) - Seems like he could very well turn himself into a 1st round pick. I know Stills is back, and I think Gary Jennings too. That's more than enough for me. Grier can sling it and that offense will always have a good fantasy QB.
4. Jordan Ta'amu (Ole Miss) - Might be going out too far on the ledge here. But I believe AJ Brown, Lodge, Metcalf, and Jefferson are all back at WR. With those weapons, the numbers will be there. I don't know how good Ole Miss is going to be either, so if they are playing from behind or involved in high scoring games, that'll only help his fantasy production.
5. TaQuon Marshall (Georgia Tech) - Not a big fan of him but there's no denying his running ability. He averaged almost 20 fantasy PPG last year just as a runner. I probably will not draft him bc I don't like depending on that. It's a little too boom or bust. But in his good weeks, your team will probably win.
6. Justin Herbert (Oregon) - He's another guy I can see being a 1st round pick. Love his size. If he stays healthy, he should be able to put up some big numbers. I haven't done enough research on Oregon yet, so I'm not sure who will still be around...I obviously know Freeman won't be.
7. Nick Fitzgerald (Mississippi State) - He gets a lot of added value from his running ability. And I like that Joe Moorhead is the one replacing Dan Mullen. Makes me a lot less worried about a potential dropoff in a new system. I'm curious to see how they design the offense around him.
8. Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State) - Was a little reluctant to put him up this high since they are switching to more of a pro-style system (same with Drew Lock). But I'm going to assume the Ohio State QB is always going to have QB1 value and I really don't see much of a dropoff (if any) from JT Barrett.
9. Trace McSorley (Penn State) - Let's see what he does without Moorhead and without Barkley. They also lose Gesicki and Hamilton. Hard to deny his numbers though and he is one of the most experienced players in the country. I can't rank him outside of QB1.
10. Drew Lock (Missouri) - They brought in Dooley to run a pro-style offense. Makes me a little nervous about him from a fantasy standpoint. They do lose J'Mon Moore but that shouldn't be the end of the world. They still have Emanuel Hall and Johnathon Johnson as pass catching weapons, along with Rountree and Crockett in the backfield. Should still be a pretty dynamic offense.
11. Nic Shimonek (Texas Tech) - Not much to say. I'm not a big fan. But if he's the guy, the stats will come.
12. Brandon Winbush (Notre Dame) - He had a reputation for being a better passer than runner coming out of HS. Obviously that wasn't really the case in his first year. I'm interested to see if they open things up a little more for him this year. With Adams and St Brown gone, he'll definitely be the focal point of the offense. If he was my QB1 in a 12 team P5, I'd be completely fine with that.
13. Brian Lewerke (Michigan State) - Brad Powers has mentioned how many starters are returning for Michigan State this year. Lewerke is solid and can rack up stats running and throwing. Last year is the floor for what can be expected out of him. Pretty safe pick in any P5 league.
14. Manny Wilkins (Arizona State) - I can't believe they hired Herm Edwards. But they did promote QB coach Rob Likens to OC so hopefully the negative impact on Wilkins is minimal. And they still have N'Keal Harry at WR, who could be the top WR in fantasy this year. So Wilkins should be safe, in theory.
15. Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama) - I made a stupid bet with one of my buddies that Jalen Hurts would win a Heisman in his career (he gave me 10/1 if that makes it any better (it doesn't)). Hurts hasn't improved and from what I've heard he didn't look good in the spring game. Tua is obviously the more talented QB. I'd expect him to take over for good this year.
Just missed: Ryan Finley (NC State), Eric Dungey (Syracuse), Trevor Lawrence (Clemson), Josh Jackson (Virginia Tech), Jake Fromm (Georgia), Malik Rosier (Miami FL), Jarrett Stidham (Auburn), DeAndre Francois (Florida State), Sam Ehlinger (Texas)
I am sure I missed someone. And again, I won't be offended if I got something wrong or have something that is way off. I'd like to hear some feedback.
I should note that I stayed away from some of the newer QBs (Louisville, USC, etc) just bc I don't know enough about the situation at this point. It's a work in progress but I'm continuing to compile as much info as I can (I actually have a Top 60 right now that is in the very rough stages).
Let me know what you think!