Last season, we posted computer projected lines at pregame.com. It was our first year of doing computer projected lines so we didn’t have any past data points to see how the projections would do against the Vegas lines. We were actually quite pleased with the results. Games where there was of difference of more than 3 points saw our computer lines actually beat the Vegas line at a 108-80-3 (57.4%) clip last season and are 43-42-3 this year. That’s pretty solid and actually better than our own handicapping (much to our dismay). Keep in mind, these computer lines don’t take into consideration off-the-field factors like revenge or flat spots. They are basically a power-rating number difference between the two teams that also takes into consideration the home field advantage.
Of the current 7 games where our computer is off more than 3 points compared to the Vegas line (highlighted), our favorite team this week to back would be Texas St +24.5 and Texas -7.5. The Comp column is the computer projected line and the Diff column is the difference between the Vegas line and the Computer line. “+” numbers in the difference column say back the underdog. “-” numbers in the difference column say back the favorite. Let us know if you have questions.
Friday, November 24th |
|
|
|
Game |
Line |
Comp |
Diff |
115 Baylor |
|
|
|
116 TCU |
-24.5 |
-23.17 |
+1.33 |
117 Western Michigan |
|
|
|
118 Toledo |
-11 |
-13.58 |
-2.58 |
119 Virginia Tech |
|
|
|
120 Virginia |
+6.5 |
+5.22 |
+1.28 |
121 Northern Illinois |
|
|
|
122 Central Michigan |
+3 |
+0.69 |
+2.31 |
123 Ohio |
|
|
|
124 Buffalo |
+6.5 |
+6.18 |
+0.32 |
125 Missouri |
|
|
|
126 Arkansas |
+8 |
+8.38 |
-0.38 |
127 New Mexico |
|
|
|
128 San Diego State |
-20.5 |
-18.94 |
+1.56 |
129 Navy |
|
|
|
130 Houston |
-4.5 |
-6.6 |
-2.1 |
131 Miami Florida |
|
|
|
132 Pittsburgh |
+12 |
+13.06 |
+1.06 |
133 Iowa |
|
|
|
134 Nebraska |
+4.5 |
+3.07 |
+1.43 |
135 Texas State |
|
|
|
136 Troy |
-24 |
-20.92 |
+3.08 |
137 South Florida |
|
|
|
138 Central Florida |
-9.5 |
-8.7 |
+0.8 |
139 Western Kentucky |
|
|
|
140 Florida International |
+3 |
+2.41 |
+0.59 |
141 Texas Tech |
|
|
|
142 Texas |
-7.5 |
-13.53 |
-6.03 |
143 California |
|
|
|
144 UCLA |
-7 |
-4.62 |
+2.38 |
Saturday, November 25th |
|
|
Game |
Line |
Comp |
Diff |
145 Connecticut |
|
|
|
146 Cincinnati |
-5.5 |
-5.07 |
+0.43 |
147 Boston College |
|
|
|
148 Syracuse |
+3.5 |
+1.6 |
+1.9 |
149 Michigan State |
|
|
|
150 Rutgers |
+13.5 |
+11.08 |
+2.42 |
151 Indiana |
|
|
|
152 Purdue |
-2.5 |
+0.05 |
+2.55 |
153 Ohio State |
|
|
|
154 Michigan |
+12 |
+8.43 |
+3.57 |
155 North Carolina |
|
|
|
156 NC State |
-16.5 |
-16.43 |
+0.07 |
157 Duke |
|
|
|
158 Wake Forest |
-11.5 |
-11.31 |
+0.19 |
159 Appalachian St |
|
|
|
160 Georgia State |
+7 |
+5.53 |
+1.47 |
161 Vanderbilt |
|
|
|
162 Tennessee |
-1 |
-2.49 |
-1.49 |
163 Iowa State |
|
|
|
164 Kansas State |
-3 |
-3.09 |
-0.09 |
165 Louisville |
|
|
|
166 Kentucky |
+10 |
+7.2 |
+2.8 |
167 Georgia |
|
|
|
168 Georgia Tech |
+11 |
+8.56 |
+2.44 |
169 Penn State |
|
|
|
170 Maryland |
+22 |
+19.55 |
+2.45 |
171 Northwestern |
|
|
|
172 Illinois |
+16.5 |
+15.22 |
+1.28 |
173 North Texas |
|
|
|
174 Rice |
+11 |
+10.47 |
+0.53 |
175 Florida Atlantic |
|
|
|
176 Charlotte |
+22 |
+21.95 |
+0.05 |
177 Utah State |
|
|
|
178 Air Force |
-1 |
-2.65 |
-1.65 |
179 Southern Miss |
|
|
|
180 Marshall |
-3 |
-3.99 |
-0.99 |
181 UNLV |
|
|
|
182 Nevada |
-3 |
-4.4 |
-1.4 |
183 Washington State |
|
|
|
184 Washington |
-10.5 |
-8.57 |
+1.93 |
185 Wyoming |
|
|
|
186 San Jose State |
+20 |
+17.72 |
+2.28 |
187 Colorado |
|
|
|
188 Utah |
-10.5 |
-7.9 |
+2.6 |
189 Arkansas State |
|
|
|
190 UL - Monroe |
+8 |
+8.57 |
-0.57 |
191 Old Dominion |
|
|
|
192 Middle Tennessee |
-12 |
-11.39 |
+0.61 |
193 Wisconsin |
|
|
|
194 Minnesota |
+17.5 |
+15.02 |
+2.48 |
195 Notre Dame |
|
|
|
196 Stanford |
+2 |
-0.37 |
+2.37 |
197 Clemson |
|
|
|
198 South Carolina |
+13.5 |
+11.66 |
+1.84 |
199 Texas A&M |
|
|
|
200 LSU |
-10 |
-11.75 |
-1.75 |
201 Boise State |
|
|
|
202 Fresno State |
+7 |
+5.43 |
+1.57 |
203 Tulane |
|
|
|
204 SMU |
-8 |
-6.26 |
+1.74 |
205 Kansas |
|
|
|
206 Oklahoma State |
-41 |
-37.8 |
+3.3 |
207 Arizona |
|
|
|
208 Arizona State |
+2 |
-1.73 |
-3.73 |
209 West Virginia |
|
|
|
210 Oklahoma |
-22.5 |
-22.36 |
+0.14 |
211 Oregon State |
|
|
|
212 Oregon |
-25 |
-20.47 |
+4.53 |
213 Idaho |
|
|
|
214 New Mexico State |
-10 |
-10.79 |
-0.79 |
215 Georgia Southern |
|
|
|
216 UL - Lafayette |
-6 |
-8.6 |
-2.6 |
217 Temple |
|
|
|
218 Tulsa |
+3.5 |
+1.23 |
+2.27 |
219 Tex San Antonio |
|
|
|
220 Louisiana Tech |
-1.5 |
-3.13 |
-1.63 |
221 East Carolina |
|
|
|
222 Memphis |
-28.5 |
-24.85 |
+3.65 |
223 UTEP |
|
|
|
224 UAB |
-20.5 |
-19.53 |
+0.97 |
225 Alabama |
|
|
|
226 Auburn |
+4.5 |
+2.92 |
+1.58 |
227 Florida State |
|
|
|
228 Florida |
+5 |
+2.88 |
+2.12 |
229 BYU |
|
|
|
230 Hawaii |
+3 |
+1.79 |
+1.21 |