USC (10-3 SU/8-5 ATS in 2016)
June 10 Power Rating: 92.76 (#6)
Returning Starters: 12 (5 offense, 7 defense)
Key Losses: RB Justin Davis, WR Juju Smith-Schuster, WR Darreus Rogers, LG Damien Mama, LT Chad Wheeler, RT Zach Banner, DT Stevie Tu’ikolovatu, LB Michael Hutchings, CB Adoree’ Jackson and S Leon McQuay
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #4
2016 Season Recap: The Trojans came into last season with modest expectations as their season win total was only 7.5 (South Point). USC opened up with defending national champ Alabama and were crushed in the final 40 minutes of the game losing 52-6 (worst loss since 1966). The Trojans rebounded to beat Utah State, but then lost 27-10 at Stanford. In QB Sam Darnold’s first start, the Trojans blew a late fourth quarter lead at Utah and fell to 1-3. At that point, head coach Clay Helton was really feeling the pressure. The season would begin to turn around with a blowout win over Arizona State. USC dominated Colorado statistically, but couldn’t manage to cover in a 4-point win. The Trojans would then win and cover their next three games all in blowout fashion over Arizona, California and Oregon (avg score 46-19). USC made a national statement the following week at Washington as they upset the Huskies 26-13 as 8.5-point underdogs. The Trojans would close the season with comfortable wins over rivals UCLA and Notre Dame (covered both games). In the Rose Bowl, USC controlled matters early, but then had to rally from a 14-point 4Q deficit to win in dramatic fashion over Penn State.
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 34.4 36
Rushing 200.7 42
Passing 276.4 25
Total 477.1 20
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 24.2 38
Rushing 139.6 31
Passing 227.5 65
Total 367.2 36
USC (SU: 10-3, ATS: 8-5, O/U: 4-9)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/3
|
† Alabama
|
L
|
+12.5
|
6-52
|
o52
|
9/10
|
Utah St
|
W
|
-16.5
|
45-7
|
u56.5
|
9/17
|
at Stanford
|
L
|
+7.5
|
10-27
|
u51
|
9/23
|
at Utah
|
L
|
+3
|
27-31
|
o45
|
10/1
|
Arizona St
|
W
|
-9.5
|
41-20
|
u65.5
|
10/8
|
Colorado
|
L
|
-5.5
|
21-17
|
u63.5
|
10/15
|
at Arizona
|
W
|
-10.5
|
48-14
|
u65
|
10/27
|
California
|
W
|
-19.5
|
45-24
|
u75
|
11/5
|
Oregon
|
W
|
-16.5
|
45-20
|
u78
|
11/12
|
at Washington
|
W
|
+8.5
|
26-13
|
u60.5
|
11/19
|
at UCLA
|
W
|
-13.5
|
36-14
|
u52.5
|
11/26
|
Notre Dame
|
W
|
-17.5
|
45-27
|
o59.5
|
1/2
|
† Penn St
|
L
|
-7.5
|
52-49
|
o59.5
|
2017 Outlook: The Trojans welcome back only five starters on offense this season but one of them is QB Sam Darnold who threw for 3,086 yards and 31 TD’s a year ago and comes into the season as the Heisman favorite. USC also returns RB Ronald Jones who ran for 1,082 yards and 12 TD’s last year.
The Trojans do lose their top two receivers in Juju Smith-Schuster (914 yards in 2016) and Darreus Rogers (696 yards) but look for Deontay Burnett (622 yards) to take on a bigger role especially after his spectacular Rose Bowl performance. The Trojans do lose three starters on the OL but have 73 career starts among the unit.
The Trojans’ defense should be improved as they welcome back seven starters led by LB Cameron Smith (83 tackles) and DE Porter Gustin (13 tackles for loss). USC does lose their leader on the DL in Stevie Tu’ikolovatu and also a first round draft choice in Adoree’ Jackson in the secondary, but the Trojans do have talented replacements.
USC returns punter Chris Tilby (averaged 38.3 yards per punt) but will certainly miss Adoree’ Jackson in the return game (4 TD’s) and kicker Matt Boermeester (18 of 25 FG’s in 2016) was suspended indefinitely from the team this spring (? to return).
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #14 Sam Darnold 6-4 225 So
RB #25 Ronald Jones 6-1 195 Jr
WR #6 Michael Pittman 6-4 210 So
WR #10 Jalen Green 6-1 200 Jr
WR #80 Deontay Burnett 6-0 170 Jr
TE #88 Daniel Imatorbhebhe 6-4 240 So
LT #70 Chuma Edoga 6-4 290 Jr
LG #50 Toa Lobendahn 6-3 295 Jr
C #74 Nico Falah 6-4 280 Sr
RG #60 Viane Talamaivao 6-2 315 Sr
RT #77 Chris Brown 6-5 300 Jr
Defense:
DE #94 Rasheem Green 6-5 280 Jr
DT #95 Kenny Bigelow 6-3 295
NT #51 Marlon Tuipulotu 6-3 295 Fr
DE/OLB #45 Porter Gustin 6-5 260 Jr
ILB #35 Cameron Smith 6-2 245 Jr
ILB #10 John Houston 6-3 220 So
OLB #42 Uchenna Nwosu 6-3 235 Sr
CB #1 Jack Jones 5-11 170 So
SS #4 Chris Hawkins 5-11 185 Sr
FS #7 Marvell Tell 6-3 190 Jr
CB #8 Iman Marshall 6-1 200 Jr
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
5-star RB Stephen Carr 6-0 210
5-star WR Joseph Lewis 6-2 205
4-star OL Austin Jackson 6-6 290
4-star DL Jay Tufele 6-3 295
4-star DT Marlon Tuipulotu 6-3 295
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/2
|
Western Michigan
|
-28
|
9/9
|
Stanford
|
-10
|
9/16
|
Texas
|
-13
|
9/23
|
at California
|
-19
|
9/29
|
at Washington St
|
-7
|
10/7
|
Oregon St
|
-25
|
10/14
|
Utah
|
-20
|
10/21
|
at Notre Dame
|
-4
|
10/28
|
at Arizona St
|
-13
|
11/4
|
Arizona
|
-26
|
11/11
|
at Colorado
|
-11
|
11/18
|
UCLA
|
-17
|
11/25
|
Bye
|
|
Schedule Analysis: USC does get most of their key games at home and don’t play any Top 10 teams. The Trojans should be significant favorites over a rebuilding Western Michigan team in the opener. USC also gets key games against Stanford and Texas at home and will likely be TD-plus favorites in both games. While the Trojans will be clear favorites at California, a road trip to Pullman to take on Washington State could be one of their toughest games of the season. USC will be significant favorites over both Oregon State and Utah at home. They do play at Notre Dame and the Irish will be coming off a bye week (most likely USC’s shortest favorite role of the season). Another tricky Pac-12 road game comes the following week at Arizona State. After hosting Arizona, USC plays at defending Pac-12 South champ Colorado but figures to be a double-digit favorite there. The regular season closes with the Trojans hosting UCLA where they again figure to be double-digit favorites. While I have USC favored in all 12 of their games and all 12 are by a FG-plus, the fact that they don’t have a bye week until the final week and play five teams in my current Top 30, I’d set their season win total around 10.5.