Colorado (10-4 SU/10-4 ATS in 2016)
June 10 Power Rating: 78.40 (#36)
Returning Starters: 12 (9 offense, 3 defense)
Key Losses: QB Sefo Liufau, C Alex Kelley, NT Josh Tupou, DE Jordan Carrell, LB Kenneth Olugbode, LB Jimmie Gilbert, CB Chidobe Awuzie, CB Ahkello Witherspoon and SS Tedric Thompson
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #34
2016 Season Recap: Even with the return of 18 starters, not much was expected from the Buffaloes last season as their season win total was 4.5 (South Point). It didn’t take long to see the Buffaloes were going to be a much-improved team as they hammered rival Colorado St 44-7 in the opener and followed it up with a beat down of Idaho St. They led Top 5 Michigan on the road 21-7 but suffered a couple of tough injuries and eventually lost by 17 (still covered). The following week, they pulled the outright upset at Oregon as double-digit underdogs (Buffs were also playing with a backup QB). Colorado would then hammer Oregon State for their fifth straight cover of the season and got a fortunate cover at USC the following week in a 4-point loss. After a blowout win over Arizona State, Colorado got a small outright upset at Stanford and were now 8-0 ATS on the season. They did suffer their first ATS loss in a 10-point win over UCLA. The Buffaloes managed wins and covers in victories over Arizona and Washington State. They then clinched the Pac-12 South with a 5-point win vs Utah at home in the regular season finale (did not cover). The season did finish on a down note as they were crushed by both Washington in the Pac-12 title game and by Oklahoma State in the bowl game but the 10 wins were the most here since 2001.
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 31.1 51
Rushing 182.6 56
Passing 254.5 47
Total 437.1 47
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 21.7 20
Rushing 148.9 44
Passing 193.6 20
Total 342.5 19
Colorado (SU: 10-4, ATS: 10-4, O/U: 5-9)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/2
|
† Colorado St
|
W
|
-8
|
44-7
|
u58
|
9/10
|
Idaho St
|
W
|
-45
|
56-7
|
o56.5
|
9/17
|
at Michigan
|
W
|
+18
|
28-45
|
o56
|
9/24
|
at Oregon
|
W
|
+10.5
|
41-38
|
o69.5
|
10/1
|
Oregon St
|
W
|
-19
|
47-6
|
u58.5
|
10/8
|
at USC
|
W
|
+5.5
|
17-21
|
u63.5
|
10/15
|
Arizona St
|
W
|
-11
|
40-16
|
u63
|
10/22
|
at Stanford
|
W
|
+1.5
|
10-5
|
u50
|
11/3
|
UCLA
|
L
|
-13
|
20-10
|
u57.5
|
11/12
|
at Arizona
|
W
|
-17.5
|
49-24
|
o59.5
|
11/19
|
Washington St
|
W
|
-6
|
38-24
|
o59.5
|
11/26
|
Utah
|
L
|
-10.5
|
27-22
|
u53.5
|
12/2
|
† Washington
|
L
|
+8.5
|
10-41
|
u56
|
12/29
|
† Oklahoma St
|
L
|
-3
|
8-38
|
u63
|
2017 Outlook: Despite losing the all-time passing leader in Colorado history in QB Sefo Liufau, the Buffs should be in good shape on offense thanks to the return of nine starters. QB Steven Montez (1,078 passing yards) played well in relief of Liufau last year and Colorado also returns RB Phillip Lindsay who ran for 1,252 yards and 16 TD’s in 2016.
The Buffaloes have one of the best receiving units in the entire country as they welcome back five players who topped 400 yards last year. The offensive line unit is also experienced as they welcome back 5 players who have started at least 7 games in a season (83 career starts) and will be led by All-Pac-12 Jeromy Irwin.
The Buffaloes do have some major rebuilding to do on defense as they lose 8 of their top 11 tacklers including four NFL draft picks. They also lost defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt to Oregon. The unit will be led by LB Rick Gamboa and safety Afolabi Laguda.
The special teams unit returns both K’s Chris Graham and Davis Price who combined for 14 of 21 FG’s and also bring back punter Alex Kinney who averaged 41.3 yards per punt.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #12 Steven Montez 6-5 225 So
RB #23 Phillip Lindsay 5-8 190 Sr
WR #1 Shay Fields 5-11 180 Sr
WR #4 Bryce Bobo 6-2 190 Sr
WR #2 Devin Ross 5-11 189 Sr
WR #14 Jay MacIntyre 5-10 190 Jr
LT #73 Isaac Miller 6-7 280 So
LG #68 Gerrad Kough 6-4 295 Sr
C #56 Tim Lynott 6-3 300 So
RG #76 Jeromy Irwin 6-5 295 Sr
RT #64 Aaron Haigler 6-7 270 So
Defense:
DE #52 Leo Jackson III 6-3 275 Sr
NG #3 Javier Edwards 6-3 350 Jr
DE #59 Timothy Coleman 6-3 250 Sr
OLB #95 Derek McCartney 6-3 250 Sr
JLB #20 Drew Lewis 6-2 225 Jr
MLB #32 Rick Gamboa 6-0 230 Jr
BLB #96 Terran Hasselbach 6-1 240 Jr
CB #8 Anthony Julmisse 6-1 185 So
SS #25 Ryan Moeller 6-1 215 Sr
FS #1 Afolabi Laguda 6-1 205 Sr
CB #26 Isaiah Oliver 6-1 190 Jr
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
4-star OT Jake Moretti 6-4 270
4-star WR K.D. Nixon 5-8 180
3-star OL Grant Polley 6-4 265
3-star LB Jonathan Van Diest 6-1 235
3-star WR Laviska Shenault Jr 6-1 205
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/1
|
† Colorado St
|
-7
|
9/9
|
Texas St
|
-35
|
9/16
|
Northern Colorado
|
-35
|
9/23
|
Washington
|
+9
|
9/30
|
at UCLA
|
+6
|
10/7
|
Arizona
|
-11
|
10/14
|
at Oregon St
|
-2
|
10/21
|
at Washington St
|
+7
|
10/28
|
California
|
-12
|
11/4
|
at Arizona St
|
+1
|
11/11
|
USC
|
+11
|
11/18
|
Bye
|
|
11/25
|
at Utah
|
+3
|
Schedule Analysis: The Buffs open up the season with three winnable non-conference games in which Colorado will be favored in all three and significant favorites in two of the three. The Buffaloes begin their conference slate with a rematch of last year’s Pac-12 Championship game and will most likely be around a TD home underdog to Washington. The next week, Colorado will likely be road underdogs against a much-improved UCLA team. Colorado will be double-digit favorites over Arizona and will likely be favored at Oregon State. The Buffaloes will be road underdogs at Washington State but get another winnable conference game at home when they play Cal. A road trip to Arizona State is a toss-up but the Buffs figure to be sizable home underdogs to USC. After a bye, Colorado will likely be around a FG underdog at Utah in the finale. Even though I have the Buffaloes favored in only six games this season, four of their underdog roles are by a TD or less. Therefore, I’d set their season win total at 6.5 or 7.