Arizona State (5-7 SU/6-6 ATS in 2016)
June 10 Power Rating: 75.19 (#50)
Returning Starters: 13 (7 offense, 6 defense)
Key Losses: WR Tim White, LT Evan Goodman, LB Laiu Moeakiola, LB Salamo Fiso, CB De’Chavon Hayes, S Armand Perry and K Zane Gonzales
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #37
2016 Season Recap: With only 10 returning starters from a 6-win team in 2015, expectations were rather tepid for Arizona State heading into the 2016 season (win total was 6 at South Point). After an expected win over Northern Arizona in the opener, the Sun Devils won a shoot-out over Texas Tech in which RB Kalen Ballage tied an FBS-record by scoring 8 TD’s. The following week, Arizona State had to rally from a 28-12 third quarter deficit to avoid a huge upset loss at UTSA (were 3-TD favorites). After another shoot-out win, this time 51-41 over Cal, the Sun Devils were 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS. After a blowout loss at USC, Arizona State was able to upset UCLA 23-20 (were 9.5-point home underdogs). A bowl bid seemed like a near certainty but the Sun Devils would lose their final six games of the season by an average of 20 points per game. Several injuries were a major reason why. The losing streak started with a 40-16 blowout loss at Colorado and finished with an embarrassing 56-35 loss at in-state rival Arizona as 2-point road favorites. In that game, Arizona State allowed 511 rushing yards.
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 33.3 40
Rushing 131.5 112
Passing 259.3 39
Total 390.8 81
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 39.8 124
Rushing 163.1 56
Passing 357.4 128
Total 520.5 127
Arizona State (SU: 5-7, ATS: 6-6, O/U: 7-5)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/3
|
No Arizona
|
W
|
-27.5
|
44-13
|
u76
|
9/10
|
Texas Tech
|
W
|
-1.5
|
68-55
|
o79.5
|
9/16
|
at UTSA
|
L
|
-21.5
|
32-28
|
o59
|
9/24
|
California
|
W
|
-4
|
51-41
|
o84.5
|
10/1
|
at USC
|
L
|
+9.5
|
20-41
|
u65.5
|
10/8
|
UCLA
|
W
|
+9.5
|
23-20
|
u58
|
10/15
|
at Colorado
|
L
|
+11
|
16-40
|
u63
|
10/22
|
Washington St
|
W
|
+7.5
|
32-37
|
o64.5
|
10/29
|
at Oregon
|
L
|
+9.5
|
35-54
|
o73
|
11/10
|
Utah
|
L
|
+4.5
|
26-49
|
o56
|
11/19
|
at Washington
|
W
|
+27.5
|
18-44
|
u64
|
11/25
|
at Arizona
|
L
|
-2
|
35-56
|
o66.5
|
2017 Outlook: The Sun Devils return seven starters on offense led by QB Manny Wilkins who threw for 2,329 yards (63%, 12-9 TD-to-INT ratio). Wilkins was being pushed by Alabama transfer QB Blake Barnett in the spring. Arizona State also brings back their top two RB’s in Demario Richard (593 rushing yards) and Kalen Ballage (536 rushing yards). Ballage was also the Sun Devils’ No. 3 receiver with 469 yards.
Speaking of receivers, the Sun Devils do lose their top guy in Tim White (713 yards) but bring back N’Keal Harry who had 659 yards a year ago. The offensive line does lose their top guy in LT Evan Goodman but bring back three starters (41 career starts) led by LG Sam Jones who was out for the year after 7 games with injury last year.
On defense, the Sun Devils were among the worst in the FBS in 2016 as they allowed 39.8 points per game (No. 124) and were dead last in the country allowing 357 passing yards per game. This year they welcome back six starters led by LB DJ Calhoun (led team in tackles with 77). The Sun Devils also get Christian Sam (98 tackles in 2015) back as he missed most of last season with an injury.
The special teams unit has some major holes to fill as they lost a 1st-team All-American at kicker in Zane Gonzalez (23 of 25 FG’s in 2016). Punter Matt Haack also departs after averaging 43.9 yards per punt a year ago.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #5 Manny Wilkins 6-3 197 Jr
RB #4 Demario Richard 5-10 219 Sr
WR #1 N’Keal Harry 6-4 220 So
WR #12 John Humphrey 5-11 170 So
WR #82 Jalen Harvey 6-1 195 Jr
TE #9 Jay Jay Wilson 6-2 259 Jr
LT #73 Cohl Cabral 6-5 286 So
LG #76 Sam Jones 6-5 297 Jr
C #65 A.J. McCollum 6-1 305 Sr
RG #71 Steven Miller 6-4 326 So
RT #59 Quinn Bailey 6-5 307 Jr
Defense:
DE #1 JoJo Wicker 6-3 263 Jr
DT #90 Tashon Smallwood 6-0 274 Sr
NT #45 George Lea 6-2 284 So
DEVIL #4 Koron Crump 6-3 218 Sr
WLB #2 Christian Sam 6-1 241 Jr
MLB #3 D.J. Calhoun 6-0 228 Sr
SPUR #17 J’Marcus Rhodes 6-0 207 Sr
CB #24 Chase Lucas 6-0 156 RS Fr
SS #31 Marcus Ball 6-2 223 Sr
FS #21 Chad Adams 5-9 188 Sr
CB #16 Maurice Chandler 6-0 191 Sr
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
4-star RB Eno Benjamin 5-10 205
4-star DB Alex Perry 5-11 178
4-star QB Blake Barnett 6-5 211
4-star DL Tyler Johnson 6-4 245
3-star QB Ryan Kelley 6-4 190
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
8/31
|
New Mexico St
|
-26
|
9/9
|
San Diego St
|
-6
|
9/16
|
at Texas Tech
|
+2
|
9/23
|
Oregon
|
+3
|
9/30
|
at Stanford
|
+17
|
10/7
|
Bye
|
|
10/14
|
Washington
|
+11
|
10/21
|
at Utah
|
+6
|
10/28
|
USC
|
+13
|
11/4
|
Colorado
|
-1
|
11/11
|
at UCLA
|
+9
|
11/18
|
at Oregon St
|
+1
|
11/25
|
Arizona
|
-8
|
Schedule Analysis: The Sun Devils play one of the tougher schedules in the country in 2017. They pull Oregon, Stanford and Washington from the Pac-12 North and also have two solid tests vs San Diego State and Texas Tech in non-conference action. The Sun Devils’ easiest game comes in the opener where they figure to be at least a 3-TD favorite over New Mexico State. The Sun Devils figure to be a small favorite over San Diego State, but will likely be a small underdog at Texas Tech in week three. Arizona State will also probably be a short home underdog to an improved Oregon team the following week. The really tough stretch of their schedule begins with a road trip to Stanford (likely biggest underdog role of season) and after a bye week, the Sun Devils will be double-digit home underdogs to Washington. Arizona State will also be underdogs at Utah and at home vs USC. The final four games are a bit easier as they could be favorites over Colorado at home and have a winnable road trip to Oregon State. Their largest favorite role outside of the season opener could come in the finale as they host in-state rival Arizona. Overall, I have the Sun Devils favored in four games, but three of their underdog roles are by 3 points or less. Therefore, I’d set their season win total around 5.