Wisconsin (11-3 SU/9-4-1 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 88.83 (#11)
Returning Starters: 15 (8 offense, 7 defense)
Key Losses: RB Corey Clement, OT Ryan Ramczyk, LB Vince Biegel, LB TJ Watt and CB Sojourn Shelton
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #38
2016 Season Recap: After back-to-back double-digit win seasons, the Badgers were expected to take a big step back in 2016. Due to an extremely tough schedule, their season win total was only 7 at the South Point. The Badgers started exceeding expectations with the very first game as they pulled the outright upset over LSU as 12.5-point underdogs. After a blowout win over Akron, they struggled mightily with 5-TD underdog Georgia State. However, they would pull their second outright upset of the season when they beat Michigan State 30-6 (+3.5). The very next week the Badgers hung tough at Michigan losing by 7 (were 11-point underdogs). After a much needed bye, Wisconsin nearly upset Ohio State (lost in OT as 10.5-point underdogs). The Badgers covered their 4th straight game when they won at Iowa 17-9 (-4). They did beat Nebraska in OT but failed to cover. Wisconsin continued to roll a long as they won and covered at Northwestern, vs Illinois and at Purdue. At 9-2 SU/ATS, they started to see some inflated lines down the stretch. The Badgers would blow a 21-point lead vs Penn State in the Big Ten Championship game, but rebounded to beat Western Michigan in the Cotton Bowl.
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 28.4 67
Rushing 203.1 39
Passing 179.1 104
Total 382.1 89
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 15.6 4
Rushing 98.8 3
Passing 202.6 30
Total 301.4 7
Wisconsin (SU: 11-3, ATS: 9-4-1, O/U: 6-8)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/3
|
† LSU
|
W
|
+12.5
|
16-14
|
u44
|
9/10
|
Akron
|
W
|
-23
|
54-10
|
o46.5
|
9/17
|
Georgia St
|
L
|
-35.5
|
23-17
|
u50.5
|
9/24
|
at Michigan St
|
W
|
+3.5
|
30-6
|
u42
|
10/1
|
at Michigan
|
W
|
+11
|
7-14
|
u44.5
|
10/15
|
Ohio St OT
|
W
|
+10.5
|
23-30
|
o45
|
10/22
|
at Iowa
|
W
|
-4
|
17-9
|
u42.5
|
10/29
|
Nebraska OT
|
L
|
-8.5
|
23-17
|
u43.5
|
11/5
|
at Northwestern
|
W
|
-6.5
|
21-7
|
u41.5
|
11/12
|
Illinois
|
W
|
-25
|
48-3
|
o41.5
|
11/19
|
at Purdue
|
W
|
-27.5
|
49-20
|
o49
|
11/26
|
Minnesota
|
L
|
-14.5
|
31-17
|
o43
|
12/3
|
† Penn St
|
L
|
-2.5
|
31-38
|
o45.5
|
1/2
|
† W Michigan
|
P
|
-8
|
24-16
|
u53.5
|
2017 Outlook: The Badgers return eight starters on offense led by QB Alex Hornibrook (1,262 yards, 59%, 9-7 ratio) who should be much improved after starting as a true freshman in 2016. The Badgers do lose their top two RB’s including Corey Clement who ran for 1,375 yards and 15 TD’s last year. Look for Bradrick Shaw (457 yards) and Pitt transfer Chris James to share the workload in 2017.
The Badgers are in good shape at the receiver spots as they return leader Jazz Peavy (635 receiving yards) while TE Troy Fumagalli (580 yards) could be one of the best TE’s in college football. The offensive line does lose first round draft choice LT Ryan Ramczyk, but return four starters led by RG Beau Benzschawel and C Michael Deiter.
The defense is also experienced with seven returning starters. All three starters are back on the defensive line. The Badgers do lose a pair of stud OLB’s in Vince Biegel (4th round draft pick) and T.J. Watt (11.5 sacks, 1st round draft pick). However, the Badgers might have the best group of ILB’s in the country in Jack Cichy (could move to OLB), T.J. Edwards (89 tackles) and Chris Orr (injured last year). In the secondary, the Badgers do lose All-Big Ten CB Sojourn Shelton (12 pbu, 4 int) but bring back a pair of solid starters in SS D’Cota Dixon and CB Derrick Tindal.
The special teams unit sees the return of kicker Rafael Gaglianone (7 of 8 FG’s last year before injury) and also punter Anthony Lotti who averaged 37.7 yards per punt last year.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #12 Alex Hornibrook 6-4 213 So
RB #5 Chris James 5-10 216 Jr
FB #20 Austin Ramesh 6-1 251 Sr
WR #11 Jazz Peavy 6-0 185 Sr
WR #87 Quintez Cephus 6-1 201 So
TE #81 Troy Fumagalli 6-6 249 Sr
LT #79 David Edwards 6-7 306 So
LG #67 Jon Dietzen 6-6 334 So
C #63 Michael Deiter 6-6 329 Jr
RG #66 Beau Benzschawel 6-6 316 Jr
RT #52 Jacob Maxwell 6-6 323 Jr
Defense:
DE #34 Chikwe Obasih 6-3 267 Sr
NT #99 Olive Sagapolu 6-2 348 Jr
DE #94 Conor Sheehy 6-4 290 Sr
OLB #5 Garret Dooley 6-3 250 Sr
ILB #53 T.J. Edwards 6-1 246 Jr
ILB #48 Jack Cichy 6-2 233 Sr
OLB #32 Leon Jacobs 6-2 238 Sr
CB #25 Derrick Tindal 5-11 183 Sr
SS #14 D’Cota Dixon 5-10 199 Sr
FS #12 Natrell Jamerson 6-0 194 Sr
CB #11 Nick Nelson 5-11 207 Jr
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
4-star OG Kayden Lyles 6-3 315
4-star WR Danny Davis 6-3 180
3-star TE Jake Ferguson 6-5 220
3-star RB Jonathan Taylor 5-11 215
3-star OT Tyler Beach 6-6 280
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/1
|
Utah St
|
-30
|
9/9
|
Florida Atlantic
|
-35
|
9/16
|
at BYU
|
-8
|
9/23
|
Bye
|
|
9/30
|
Northwestern
|
-14
|
10/7
|
at Nebraska
|
-7
|
10/14
|
Purdue
|
-31
|
10/21
|
Maryland
|
-26
|
10/28
|
at Illinois
|
-21
|
11/4
|
at Indiana
|
-11
|
11/11
|
Iowa
|
-17
|
11/18
|
Michigan
|
-4
|
11/25
|
at Minnesota
|
-9
|
Schedule Analysis: As you can see above, the Badgers have a very favorable schedule in 2017. In the last two years they’ve opened up with Alabama and LSU but this year, it’s Utah State. They do have a fairly tough non-conference road game at BYU in Week 3. The Big Ten conference slate is also very manageable as they avoid the two best teams from the East division in Ohio State and Penn State. The Badgers also get key games vs Northwestern (possible sleeper team) and Michigan at home. Their toughest road games will come at Nebraska and at Minnesota but look for the Badgers to be favored in each of those games. Overall, Wisconsin will most likely be favored in all 12 of their regular season games. That’s one of the major reasons why I thought there was great value with the Badgers winning the National Title at 80/1. I’m thinking Vegas will set their win total at 10 but I could definitely see 10.5 as well.