Alabama (14-1 SU/9-4-2 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 98.22 (#1)
Returning Starters: 11 (6 offense, 5 defense)
Key Losses: WR ArDarius Stewart, TE O.J. Howard, OT Cam Robinson, DT Jonathan Allen, LB Reuben Foster, LB Ryan Anderson, CB Marlon Humphrey
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #1
2016 Season Recap: Alabama came into the 2016 season as the defending champs and started the season No. 1. They left no doubt after crushing USC in the opener. Two weeks later, they again struggled with Ole Miss having to rally from a 24-7 deficit. They would follow that up with road wins at Arkansas and Tennessee. Alabama would win and cover over Texas A&M at home and then after a bye would win and cover at LSU in a defensive slug-fest. The Tide kept their cover streak going with a blowout win over Mississippi St. The Crimson Tide would beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl and for the second consecutive season easily handled Florida in the SEC Championship game. In the playoff, they got by Washington in the semi-final but would relieve O.C. Lane Kiffin of his duties. After controlling the game vs Clemson early, the Crimson Tide wore down in the fourth quarter and would lose the National Championship on a TD pass with :01 left. They still easily topped their season win total of 10 (South Point).
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 38.8 16
Rushing 245.0 12
Passing 210.3 87
Total 455.3 34
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 13.0 1
Rushing 63.9 1
Passing 197.9 24
Total 261.8 2
Alabama (SU: 14-1, ATS: 9-4-2, O/U: 7-8)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/3
|
† USC
|
W
|
-12.5
|
52-6
|
o52
|
9/10
|
W Kentucky
|
P
|
-28
|
38-10
|
u60.5
|
9/17
|
at Mississippi
|
L
|
-10.5
|
48-43
|
o54.5
|
9/24
|
Kent St
|
W
|
-43
|
48-0
|
u49.5
|
10/1
|
Kentucky
|
L
|
-36
|
34-6
|
u57
|
10/8
|
at Arkansas
|
W
|
-14.5
|
49-30
|
o48.5
|
10/15
|
at Tennessee
|
W
|
-13.5
|
49-10
|
o55.5
|
10/22
|
Texas A&M
|
W
|
-18
|
33-14
|
u59
|
11/5
|
at LSU
|
W
|
-7.5
|
10-0
|
u46
|
11/12
|
Mississippi St
|
W
|
-29.5
|
51-3
|
o53.5
|
11/19
|
UT-Chatt.
|
L
|
-49
|
31-3
|
u64
|
11/26
|
Auburn
|
P
|
-18
|
30-12
|
u46.5
|
12/3
|
† Florida
|
W
|
-24
|
54-16
|
o40.5
|
12/31
|
† Washington
|
W
|
-13.5
|
24-7
|
u52
|
1/9
|
† Clemson
|
L
|
-6.5
|
31-35
|
o51
|
2017 Outlook: As usual the Crimson Tide lost a lot of talent to the NFL. They do welcome back 6 starters on offense led by QB Jalen Hurts who threw for 2,780 yards (62.8%, 23-9 ratio) while also adding 954 rushing yards and 13 TD’s. Hurts was the first true freshman to win SEC offensive player of the year since Herschel Walker.
The RB’s are loaded as the Tide bring back Bo Scarbrough (812 yards, 11 TD’s) and Damien Harris (1,037 rushing yards). Despite losing WR ArDarius Stewart (864 receiving yards) and TE O.J. Howard (first round NFL draft pick), the Tide have plenty of weapons at WR led by Calvin Ridley (769 yards). The OL also welcomes back two All-SEC performers in Bradley Bozeman and Jonah Williams.
The defensive losses are massive as the Crimson Tide lost leading tackler Reuben Foster (115 tackles), their best DL in Jonathan Allen (10.5 sacks) and best pass rusher Ryan Anderson (19 TFL’s). The unit will be led by LB Shaun Dion Hamilton (64 tackles) and DB Minkah Fitzpatrick (6 interceptions) but it will be tough top 2016’s edition that incredibly scored 11 touchdowns.
The Crimson Tide have one of the best punters in the country in J.K. Scott (averaged 47.2 yards per punt) but the starting kicker spot is up for grabs.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #2 Jalen Hurts 6-2 214 So
RB #9 Bo Scarbrough 6-2 232 Jr
WR #3 Calvin Ridley 6-1 190 Jr
WR #1 Robert Foster 6-2 196 RS Sr
WR #17 Cam Sims 6-5 205 Sr
TE #84 Hale Hentges 6-5 251 Jr
LT #73 Jonah Williams 6-5 301 So
LG #71 Ross Pierschbacher 6-4 304 RS Jr
C #75 Bradley Bozeman 6-5 314 RS Sr
RG #66 Lester Cotton 6-4 324 Jr
RT #77 Matt Womack 6-7 326 RS So
Defense:
DE #9 Da’Shawn Hand 6-4 282 Sr
NG #94 Da’Ron Payne 6-2 308 Jr
DE #49 Isaiah Buggs 6-5 292 Jr
JLB #33 Anfernee Jennings 6-3 265 RS So
MLB #32 Rashaan Evans 6-3 234 Sr
WLB #20 Shaun Dion Hamilton 6-0 233 Sr
SLB #47 Christian Miller 6-4 240 RS Jr
CB #28 Anthony Averett 6-0 185 RS Sr
SS #29 Minkah Fitzpatrick 6-1 201 Jr
FS #15 Ronnie Harrison 6-3 214 Jr
CB #7 Trevon Diggs 6-2 195 So
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
5-star RB Najee Harris 6-2 227
5-star OT Alex Leatherwood 6-6 327
5-star OLB Dylan Moses 6-3 234
5-star WR Jerry Jeudy 6-1 184
5-star DE LaBryan Ray 6-4 260
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/2
|
† Florida St
|
-4.5
|
9/9
|
Fresno St
|
-48
|
9/16
|
Colorado St
|
-32
|
9/23
|
at Vanderbilt
|
-22
|
9/30
|
Ole Miss
|
-24
|
10/7
|
at Texas A&M
|
-12
|
10/14
|
Arkansas
|
-24
|
10/21
|
Tennessee
|
-21
|
10/28
|
Bye
|
|
11/4
|
LSU
|
-12
|
11/11
|
at Mississippi St
|
-16
|
11/18
|
Mercer
|
-52
|
11/25
|
at Auburn
|
-4
|
Schedule Analysis: Outside of one the biggest season openers in college football history vs Florida State and a road game at Auburn in the regular season finale, the Crimson Tide’s schedule is very manageable in 2017. Alabama follows up the big game vs the Seminoles with Fresno State and Colorado State. The SEC schedule opens up with a road trip to Vanderbilt (first trip to Nashville since 2007). The Crimson Tide have struggled with Ole Miss the last three years, but will be a huge favorite this year. Alabama does have to go to Kyle Field, but the Tide have owned the Aggies the last couple of seasons. Alabama then gets Arkansas and Tennessee both at home. After a bye week, they also get the big game vs LSU at home. A road trip to Mississippi St could be tricky and then two weeks later, the Tide might have their toughest test of the season on the road at Auburn. Overall, Alabama will again be favored in every game (enter 2017 being favored in 97 of their last 98 games). 10 of those favorite roles will be by double-digits and while most books would never deal a season win total of 11, I’m not afraid to do so as Alabama has lost more than one regular season only once since 2007 and that came 7 years ago.