Florida (9-4 SU/6-7 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 86.64 (#15)
Returning Starters: 14 (9 offense, 5 defense)
Key Losses: LB Jarrad Davis, LB Alex Anzalone, DB Marcus Maye, DB Quincy Wilson, DB Teez Tabor
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #9
2016 Season Recap: Despite coming off an SEC East division title in 2015, the Gators were being overlooked in the betting markets a year ago as their season win total was only 7.5 (South Point). Florida started off the season 3-0 outscoring their opponents by a combined 101-14. They did lose starting QB Luke Del Rio to a back injury. In Week No. 4, they blew a huge lead against Tennessee and lost to the Volunteers for the first time since 2004. After wins over Vanderbilt and Missouri they beat rival Georgia for the third consecutive year and were riding high at 6-1. They would get crushed at Arkansas 31-10 but rebounded to beat South Carolina. Then in a controversially rescheduled game at LSU (was supposed to be a Florida home game), the Gators pulled off their biggest outright upset in 40 years beating LSU 16-10 (+14). That clinched another SEC East division title. Unfortunately, they were easily handled by rival Florida State and then were crushed by Alabama in the SEC Championship game for the second year in a row. The season did end on a high note with a 30-3 win over Iowa in the Outback Bowl.
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 23.9 107
Rushing 128.2 113
Passing 215.8 79
Total 344.0 116
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 16.8 6
Rushing 144.5 38
Passing 148.5 2
Total 293.0 5
Florida (SU: 9-4, ATS: 6-7, O/U: 4-9)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/3
|
Massachusetts
|
L
|
-36.5
|
24-7
|
u50.5
|
9/10
|
Kentucky
|
W
|
-14.5
|
45-7
|
o49.5
|
9/17
|
North Texas
|
L
|
-35
|
32-0
|
u52.5
|
9/24
|
at Tennessee
|
L
|
+4.5
|
28-38
|
o42
|
10/1
|
at Vanderbilt
|
L
|
-11.5
|
13-6
|
u40.5
|
10/15
|
Missouri
|
W
|
-13.5
|
40-14
|
o51.5
|
10/29
|
† Georgia
|
W
|
-7
|
24-10
|
u43
|
11/5
|
at Arkansas
|
L
|
-4
|
10-31
|
u45.5
|
11/12
|
S Carolina
|
W
|
-11.5
|
20-7
|
u37.5
|
11/19
|
at LSU
|
W
|
+14
|
16-10
|
u38
|
11/26
|
at Florida St
|
L
|
+8
|
13-31
|
u46.5
|
12/3
|
† Alabama
|
L
|
+24
|
16-54
|
o40.5
|
1/2
|
† Iowa
|
W
|
-2
|
30-3
|
u40.5
|
2017 Outlook: This year the Gators return 14 starters including 9 on offense. The experience will be needed as Florida only averaged 344 total yards per game (No. 116) and 23.9 ppg (No. 107). Redshirt freshman Feleipe Franks came out of the spring as the front-runner at QB but last year’s starter Luke Del Rio didn’t participate because of injury. Franks has way more upside but it will be interesting to see if head coach Jim McElwain gives Del Rio a fair shot at the starting job in fall camp.
Last year’s leading rusher Jordan Scarlett (907 yards) is back at RB and the Gators return their top 3 receivers led by Antonio Callaway (721 yards). The OL should be in the best shape it’s been in the McElwain era led by LT Martez Ivey.
The defense has been the strength of the team the last couple of seasons but this year the Gators return only 5 starters and the losses are heavy. Gone are first round draft choice Jarrad David (2nd leading tackler) and third round draft choice Alex Anzalone (3rd leading tackler) at LB. The secondary also took a significant hit as they saw three players go in the NFL Draft led by Marcus Maye (4th leading tackler, 2nd round) and Quincy Wilson (2nd round). The good news is that leading tackler Marcell Harris returns and the Gators are not short on talent.
On special teams, the Gators have one of the best duos in the country. Kicker Eddy Pineiro is back after a very successful first season (21 of 25 FG’s including 11 of 13 from 40-plus!). Pineiro had a video this spring of him making an 81-yard field goal! Also back is punter Johnny Townsend who averaged a nation-high 47.9 yards per punt a year ago.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #13 Feleipe Franks 6-6 219 RS Fr
RB #25 Jordan Scarlett 5-10 213 Jr
WR #81 Antonio Callaway 5-11 197 Jr
WR #4 Brandon Powell 509 184 Sr
WR #89 Tyrie Cleveland 6-2 196 So
TE #30 DeAndre Goolsby 6-4 244 Sr
C #59 T.J. McCoy 6-1 308 RS Fr
RG #64 Tyler Jordan 6-4 309 Jr
LG #61 Brent Heggie 6-3 317 So
RT #65 Jawaan Taylor 6-5 340 So
LT #73 Martez Ivey 6-5 305 Jr
Defense:
DE #96 CeCe Jefferson 6-1 261 Jr
NT #54 Khairi Clark 6-2 319 RS Jr
DT #93 Taven Bryan 6-5 293 RS Jr
DE #92 Jabari Zuniga 6-3 245 RS So
WLB #28 Kylan Johnson 6-1 231 RS So
MLB #33 David Reese 6-0 244 So
SLB #11 Vosean Joseph 6-1 226 So
CB #7 Duke Dawson 5-10 208 Sr
SS #26 Marcell Harris 6-1 211 6-1 211 RS Sr
FS #8 Nick Washington 6-0 197 RS Sr
CB #23 Chauncey Gardner 5-11 204 So
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
4-star OG Tedarrell Slaton
4-star WR James Robinson
4-star DE Zachary Carter
4-star CB Christopher Henderson
4-star CB Brad Stewart
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/2
|
† Michigan
|
+3
|
9/9
|
Northern Colorado
|
-45
|
9/16
|
Tennessee
|
-7
|
9/23
|
at Kentucky
|
-6
|
9/30
|
Vanderbilt
|
-17
|
10/7
|
LSU
|
+1
|
10/14
|
Texas A&M
|
-9
|
10/21
|
Bye
|
|
10/28
|
† Georgia
|
-1
|
11/4
|
at Missouri
|
-8
|
11/11
|
at South Carolina
|
-5
|
11/18
|
UAB
|
-42
|
11/25
|
Florida St
|
+3
|
Schedule Analysis: The Gators play an advantageous schedule in 2017. They only play three true road games (fewest for any team in the country). Florida will be favored in all three road games as they are against the weaker teams of the SEC East division. The opener in Arlington, TX will be tough against Michigan, but the Wolverines are one of the least experienced teams in the country. The Gators get the all-important revenge game vs Tennessee at home and because of last year’s scheduling debacle with LSU, they get to play both SEC West teams at home this year. They have a bye prior to rival Georgia, which as always is played in Jacksonville and the Gators also get rival Florida State at home. Overall, Florida figures to be favored in at least 9 games and I would set their season win total at 9. If their season win total falls anywhere lower (remember it was only 7.5 last year), I will certainly be biting off a big piece on the OVER.