We continue to dominate CFB and will of course have the obligatory bomb at some point. I shall retrieve this from page five at some point - because you just want the winners. Our free plays have been winners. We've already released two best bets for long term subscribers - and I'll be adding to this as time permits and when totals come out. We're also looking hard at continuing MLB dominance after a +77u unit season - and a +143u 2015 to date.
Oklahoma-Texas: After last weeks' Longhorn performance they're clearly not going to get much support from bettors - so I would actually look to take the points, somehow - simply because of the perceived extra value. I can't trust Bob Stoops laying that many and can't trust Texas to take them.
Minnesota-Purdue: The game opened at a PK and is trending towards the Gophers early on, as one might expect. However, the Boilermakers played the Spartans tough and gave Bowling Green a better game than people thought, so they could be trending up. The Gophers have had a tough time putting points on the board getting shutout at Northwestern and in their other road game were taken to OT by Colorado State. They beat Purdue by one at home last season, 39-38. Lean to Purdue at home.
Oklahoma State-WVU: Mountaineers coming home after a beatdown at Oklahoma while the Cowboys come in undefeated but having barely beaten Texas and K-State at home. This is a big game for both teams - looking at Oklahoma State's schedule, they've got a chance to run the table with a win here since all their tough games are at home, and could be remembering the fact that they lost at home to WVU pretty badly last year. Even with a high scoring game likely, a full possession might be a bit much here. It's a difficult spot for WVU having been in Norman last week and at Baylor next week, but the caveat for me is that this is a night game with a different atmosphere. At +7 I'd take the points and probably look for an inflated total and take the under.
Duke-Army: One would have to think that this game means far less to Duke, being that it's not a Conference game. But, they've got a bye next week before playing V-Tech. For all Army's negative PR this and other seasons' - they've yet to lose a game by ten points, which is where the line sits. I might look at this under simply because Duke sees a similar offense when they play G-Tech, who they beat - and Army did hold Wake to 17 and Penn State to 20. They're not prolific offenses, but they are bigger and better teams. Give me the Cadets.
Tulane-Temple: As much as I thought that Tulane would be better this season, bringing back a ton on both sides of the ball, they're just not. As much as Temple is going to be expensive given their recent run of three straight road wins - their defense will probably be enough to cover this. They do have an extra day to prepare given that they played last Friday. I do look for a fairly low total and perhaps an "over" here because Tulane's offense had started to put up some points, and I would expect some sort of either a letdown by Temple or a blowout that leads to late points by Tulane.
Iowa-Illinois: Iowa's stock is pretty high right now and for good reason. They're undefeated, have won twice on the road, and have a very good defense, as usual. I do question their offense and they've got a big game at Northwestern next week, so Illinois staying within the number is not out of the question. Yes, Illinois was fortunate against Nebraska (to say the least) but they CAN score. They were crushed at NC but that's an entirely different kind of team than Iowa. They (Illinois) lost to Iowa 30-14 at home last season. I'll look hard at this under as well.
Wake-Boston College: It's tough for me to think that an offensively challenged team like the Eagles is laying -9.5 points, even to Wake Forest. Tough spot for BC being at Duke last week in the rain and travelling to Clemson next week, so their focus on a game they should win might be sub-standard. If Wake can hold FSU to 24 points and cover easily, I can't do anything but take Wake, and at +10 for sure, but I doubt it goes up.
UVA-Pittsburgh: The Panthers opened at -10 and that's already gone to -8, even with UVA getting dismantled by Boise State in front of a National TV audience. In their favor (UVA) is that their coming off a bye and have played some stiff competition in Notre Dame, Boise, and UCLA. Pitt is also in a travel-sandwich spot, having beaten V-Tech on the road, a team we're not sure what to make of, and traveling next week to G-Tech. I don't think Pitt has enough offense and UVA does have enough defense - so I'd have to take the points here, and perhaps the under, but missing +10 which wasn't around long at all might mean pass.
Arkansas-Alabama: I guess we (I) got caught up in the UGA hype and the 'Bama loss to Ole Miss (which looks worse after what Florida did to the Rebels), and now we're back to paying dearly for the Tide. The reason for taking the Hogs at all might be the big UGA game last week sandwiched around a trip to A & M next week. Arkansas has played better, pushing the Aggies to OT and winning at Tennessee last week - and they do have a bye next week. Ballsy to fade the Tide again, but I do think that's perhaps the play here.
Bowling Green-UMass: The Falcons are and will be clearly the public side, but let's not forget the late meltdown and failure to cover at Buffalo - or the fact that UMass is better than people might think. Bowling Green can certainly score, but they haven't proven they can stop a reasonable offense yet - so I do look for Umass to match them for a period of time. It's interesting that the line opened -12.5 (just under a key number) and to date has not moved. It'll be a high total but perhaps not high enough.
ECU-BYU: The Pirates getting points is something I'll always look at. They almost beat Florida (which looks more impressive after what the Gators did to Ole Miss) and they did beat the Hokies pretty soundly. Both teams are going to play fast so this will be a big total - with BYU's injuries, I can't lay those points and this is a huge game for ECU's program, being on ESPNU. The downside here is that the Pirates were at SMU - fly home, and then fly back out to Utah. Thinking this through the Pirates might be a good 1H bet as I can see them getting fatigued late. Bettors have already grabbed the +7.5 so IMO it's now or never for betting the Pirates.
Rice-FAU: Florida Atlantic opened -1 and quickly went to -3. The Owls are a team with exactly one win - at Charlotte, and have had a week off. The other Owls (Rice) have played Texas, Baylor, and the explosive Western Kentucky team, so playing FAU might not be the challenge the early bettors seem to think it is. Rice won a few road games last season, and this is a winnable game for them if one were to choose to bet on less predictable teams. One reason we are doing so well in CFB is the fact that we've tried to stick to top teams that we have an idea what we're going to get.
Washington State-Oregon: So now, all of a sudden, the Ducks are "fixed" after beating Colorado. The Cougars played Cal a lot tougher than people thought last week - so paying for the Ducks isn't something I'm ready to do, even at home. The Cougars only lost to the Ducks by a TD at home last season, and I don't trust the Ducks defense to get stop after stop here, and I don't trust their offense not to turn it over. I'll take the points here.
Georgia-Tennessee: The Dawgs go on the road in Conference play and are three point favorites against a team many though would start better than they have. Apparently UGA is just going to get up off the mat and win at Knoxville. I would venture to say they won't. There's the obvious talent difference, but the Vols lost a tough one to Oklahoma, should have beaten the Gators in Gainesville, and lost to the improving Hogs on a rainy night with a half-empty stadium. The Vols SHOULD have won this game in Athens last year, so there is no other play than Tennessee, IMO.
MTSU-Western Kentucky: They've (early bettors/sharps/cool people) have already grabbed the +10.5. I can see why, since this is the best team the Hilltoppers will have played this season, they've traveled quite a bit, and have three straight road games coming up, and a short week this week, playing on Thursday at North Texas. MTSU has played at Alabama and at Illinois, so this is far from an intimidating road game. These two played a 3 OT game last season - and I expect this one to be just as close, but if you want the blue team (MTSU) it's probably now or never because I can see this line dropping at some point.