I went 5-3 during the weekday games. Now on to Saturday. Let's hope its a good one. BOL everyone.
TOP PLAYS
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Ohio State -13.5 over PENN STATE: Not a big fan of the Buckeyes, but I am a big fan of their ability to blow teams out and they need to continue to do that if they hope to make it in to the 4 team playoff at the end of the year. Ohio State has crushed Kent State, Cincinnati, Maryland and Rutgers in their last 4 games and remember that Penn State only beat Rutgers by 3 points earlier in the year. Ohio State has scored 50+ points in 4 straight games, which shows their offense is clicking, while Penn State has scored just 22 points in their last 2 games and they have yet to score more than 13 points in any of their 3 Big 10 games this year. The Buckeyes are rolling right now and Urban Meyer is in favor of running up scores and with Penn State struggling to score I just don't see how they score enough to keep the game close. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY: Home teams that started the year at 4-0 or better and are off BB SU losses exact and BB ATS losses are 11-26-1 ATS if hosting a .500 or better conference opponent.
Clemson/ Syracuse Under 47.5: Its hard not to like the under in this game. The Clemson offense has become very stagnant of late with stationary Cole Stout at QB, who is just not the same Dual threat that Deshaun Watson is. The Tigers have scored just 40 total points in their last 2 games, while their defense has been special all year, allowing just 282.7 ypg and 20 ppg, which includes allowing just 227 ypg and 10 ppg in their last 3 games. This is a tough defense that will face struggling Syracuse offense that has averaged just 18.2 ppg in their last 5 games. The defense for the Cuse is not so bad as they have allowed just 23.9 ppg on the year and they should be able to hold down this Clemson offense that has really become conservative of late. The Under is 4-1 in Syracuse’s last 5 road games, while the Under is 20-7 in Clemson’s last 27 games in October. I expect this one to be played in the 30s.
Texas +10 over KANSAS STATE: This Texas team seems to be getting better, especially on the offensive side of the ball, where they have have put up 84 points in the last two weeks. Their Defense has been shaky and just allowed 45 points to Iowa State, but in the prior two games they really shut down Baylor for much of the game and then two weeks ago held the Sooners to just 232 yards and they will face a KSU offense that is very average at best. Kansas State did beat Oklahoma last week but they were outgained in the game by 148 yards, while Texas outgained the Sooners 2 weeks ago in their 31-26 loss. The Wildcats are in the middle of an Oklahoma/ Oklahoma State sandwich and i feel they are a very phony 6-1 team, which will show up here as Texas keeps this game very close with a shot at the outright win in the 4th quarter.
UNLV/ Utah State Under 50: The Under is 4-0 the last 4 meetings, with an average of just 45.8 ppg being scored in those games. The Utah State offense has not looked the same without Chuckie Keeton, but now Darell Garretson is in and they will be turning to 3rd string QB Craig Harrison, who has attempted just 12 passes this year and has hit just 5 of them. He will be taking on a bad UNLV defense, but also one that has improved of late. I can see the Aggies being a bit more conservative with Harrison behind cent. For the Rebels, they have been a bad offensive team all year long, scoring more than 17 points just twice so far this year. It will not get any easier vs a Utah State defense that has allowed just 22.1 ppg on the year and are also 6th in the nation vs the run. The Under is 11-4 ATS in the Rebels last 15 following an ATS win, while the Under is 6-0 in the Aggies' last 6 conference games and 16-5 in their last 21 off an ATS win. Around 42 points at most here.
LSU/ OLE Miss Under 45: This one should be a classic SEC slugfest with much more defense than offense. The LSU offense is very young and this could be the best defense that the Tigers will have faced all year. This Mississippi defense is nasty and tough to move the ball on. They are 8th in total defense, 21st vs the pass, 5th vs the run and 1st in points allowed 10.6 ppg. LSU will have to run the ball in this one to loosen up that defense, but even when they throw we note that LSU QB Jennings has hit just 49% of his passes in SEC play this year. Very hard to see them putting up many points here. The LSU defense though is very tough and has allowed just 11.5 ppg at home. Overall LSU is 8th in the nation in scoring defense (17 ppg) and they are also 4th vs the pass, allowing just 156.2 ypg. The Ole Miss offense has been very inconsistent this year and should struggle vs LSU in this one. Both defenses are stout and this is a huge game so we should see more conservative play from both teams. I look for this one to be played in the 30's. It has the feel of a 20-17 type game.
BEST OF THE REST
Virginia/ North Carolina Under 65: A few weeks ago I played an under involving North Carolina when they played Virginia Tech and that was an easy winner. A Big reason I played that was because of the defense of Virginia Tech, and I like the same scenario here with the defense of Virginia being able to slow the Heels offense down. Virginia can also look to slow the Heels offense down with their slow paced offense that will just eat clock and keep the Heels offense on the sidelines. The Heels do give up a ton of points, but this is not a big play Virginia offense and I will look for them to dink an dunk their way down the field. This one should be played under 55 points.
Missouri/ Vanderbilt Under 42: The Missouri offense looks good on the surface as they have averaged 30.7 ppg, but they have gotten allot of break this year and in reality this has not been all that good an offense, as they are 118 th in the nation in total yards and 111 th in passing. Last week they scored 42 points on Florida, but had just 7 FDs and 119 yards in the game, plus in the game before that they had just 10 FDs and 147 totals vs Georgia. This is a bad offense, but so is the Vanderbilt offense as they have averaged just 17.6 ppg and are 125th in the nation in total offense. Missouri has allowed just 21.4 ppg on the year and the Under is 4-1 in their last 5 games overall. I look for a game in the lower 30s here.
Alabama/ Tennessee Under 46.5: The Volunteers offense has struggled for most of the year and now will take on a hot and very tough Alabama defense that is off a shut out of the high flying Texas A&M Aggies. Very hard to see this Vols team that put up just 3 points last week on Ole Miss getting much going vs a defense that is equally as tough. Last week Bama did score 59 points on a very bad Texas A&M defense, but now they will take on a tougher Tennessee defense that has allowed just 21.3 ppg on the year. This is a solid Vols defense that ranks 19th in total defense and 6th vs the pass and they should keep the tide from going scoring crazy in this one. The Under is 25-11 in Alabama’s last 36 vs a team with a losing record, while the Under is 7-1 in the Volunteers last 8 games overall. This game may be played in the upper 30’s.
Memphis/ SMU Under 49: This is one pathetic and futile SMU offense that is averaging less than a TD a game and have score 6 points or less in all but one game this year. To clearly illustrate this we go back to last week where the Mustangs to on a very bad Cincinnati defense and were able to muster just 3 points in the contest. Now this offense will take on a very solid Memphis defense that has allowed just 20.8 ppg on the year. On offense Memphis is not really a big play offense and are not a team to run it up when they get up big, so I expect them to score no more than the mid-30s in this one, even vs the worst defense in the nation. Lower 40s is what I will call for in this one.
Marshall/ Florida Atlantic Over 69
MICHIGAN STATE -17 over Michigan
UAB/ Arkansas Over 65.5
10 Point Teaser: West Virginia +10 & LSU +13.5 & Alabama -8
10 Point Teaser: Washington +13.5 & Mississippi State -4 & Wisconsin -0.5
San Jose/ Navy Under 53
Arizona State/ Washington Under 60
Utah/ USC Under 52
CFB 2014
Top Plays Overall 27-26-1 (-7.4 Units)... 4 Unit 1-3-0 (-9.2 Units)
Top Play Totals 15-18-0 (-16.5 Units)... Power Angle Plays 4-0-0 (+13.00 Units)... Top Play Teasers 2-2-0 (-0.6 Units)
Best Of The Rest Plays Overall 56-54-2 (-6.8 Units)
Best Of The Rest Totals 29-22-1 (+8.4 Units)... Best Of The Rest Teasers 12-20-0 (-22.2 Units)