I took NC State 3.5 -105 ***
I almost posted Kansas game over, deleted it, then took over in game. I only bring this up because my initial statement was that I love defense and unders, especially at the beginning of the day. Once I had my initial thought, I check it to see if it holds. I did the same thing with Dayton. Ranked team, elite level defense, and initial line movement to favor them, still, I am going to take NC State
When you look at Kenpom, Dayton would be favored by 4.5, so it makes sense money came in on Dayton, but not sure it will get to 4 or larger.
The big difference here from yesterday is the offense. Specifically, 2 point scoring. Not only will NC State be the best offense Dayton has seen, but there is a big advantage from yesterday.
FG % at the rim:
Nc State 94th
Dayton is 91st
2 point % overall:
NC State 40th
Dayton is 128th
NC State is the 70th best 3 point shooting term, whereas Dayton is one of the worst at 330th. Wisky was right in the middle at 158th.
NC State is significantly better in the turnover department:
not turning it over:
NC State 88
I think NC State is the significantly better offensive team, but closer defensively than most may think. I like that NC State presents different challenges than Wisconsin did for Dayton and can see NC State winning outright.
Happy Thanksgiving and all the best.