Alright guys, I am 22-20 on these write ups slowly climbing back up to 55%. I had 1 brutal day to get me this low. Thursday (the 20th) was very light/stay away because I thought the lines were much sharper. These games I have a much stronger disagreement. I also had some write ups for Sleepy’s pod (I was off for the day), check out the link below. Sleepy also did a great write up for the boxing fight, I am not a big fan of MMA or boxing (just never been into it) but it definitely makes me want to watch. BOL to all gambling on anything for the weekend.
https://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/cbb/1762075/quick-pod-cbb-nba-weekend-feb-21-23
https://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/cbb/1762009/wilder-vs-fury-ii-my-handicap
North Dakota St at North Dakota (-4.5, 144)
I highly encourage you guys to wait for the NDSU -4. I like it at -4.5 but much rather have the better number. Last game, the sharps bought into North Dakota. They whiffed, North Dakota isn’t good. They beat the bad Summit League teams. North Dakota is 6-7 in conference, of those 6 wins, they beat Denver twice, IPFW, Western Illinois, and Oral Roberts. In Ken Pom, Denver is #311, IPFW is #272, Western Illinois is #327, and Oral Roberts is a #144. Oral Roberts was in a look ahead spot when North Dakota beat them. Not a good win at all in conference.
NDSU is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS since December of 2018 and 4-1 over under. NDSU has gone on the road and beat them twice in this 5-game stretch.
North Dakota is a combine 0-4 against the 3 best teams in Summit League of South Dakota, South Dakota State, and North Dakota State. North Dakota lost to SDSU by 21 and 11. NDSU by 9. South Dakota by 14. They aren’t losing to these guys; they are getting dominated.
NDSU is 11-2 in conference. Lost at Oral Roberts in early January and at SDSU. NDSU on the road is 5-2, putting up 73.7ppg and giving up 67.6ppg. Against IPFW, WIU, and Denver, NDSU has beaten these teams by 14.2ppg. To make things better for NDSU, this is only a 73-mile journey for them and North Dakota has a HCA of #226.
In the first matchup, NDSU out assisted them, out stole them, out blocked them, had less turnovers and less fouls. NDSU shot 49.1% from the field, 38.9% from 3, and 87% FT. These are all close their averages. North Dakota shot 45% from the field, 25% from 3, and 88.2% FT. These are all close or below to their averages but that’s before you factor in the NDSU defense.
To quote Dave Essler, if I am going to back a road team, I need defense. NDSU is the #1 defense in conference. They are #2 effective FG% defense, #1 defensive rebounding team, the #3 perimeter team, and #1 defending the field. For North Dakota offensively, they are #6 overall. NDSU doesn’t force a lot of TOs but North Dakota gives up a lot. North Dakota doesn’t shoot well from 3, #6 in conference, and they are the #5 effective FG team.
The NDSU offense is #3 in conference. They are #2 effective FG, #1 FT team, #3 from the perimeter, and #2 from the field. North Dakota #6 in defense. They are #5 effective FG defense, #8 defending the perimeter, and #5 defending the field. To make things worse for North Dakota, they are a younger team, #193 in experience while NDSU is #35. North Dakota doesn’t just have a weak bench; they have no bench. North Dakota is #346 in bench minutes while NDSU is #158.
I will gladly lay the -4.5 but wait the -4. In terms of the total, NDSU can carry us a bit here. North Dakota has been putting up points at home but I expect them to struggle some. NDSU wins 79-71. I like NDSU and the over. The total has come down from 148 which I personally agree with, at 144 I am inclined to take the over. Asking 72ish from each team isn’t that much in Summit League. I just don’t think it goes under at this number. NSDU generally gets up big on these poor Summit teams and then have a high scoring 2nd half.
Omaha @ Western Illinois (+5, 153.5)
Since January 2017, Omaha is 7-0 and 5-2 ATS against WIU with a 3-4 over under. Omaha is an atrocious team and that’s the nice way to put it.
At home, WIU gets worse in terms of point differential. They beat South Dakota, lost to IPFW by 8, beat Denver, lost to Oral Roberts by 17, lost to North Dakota State by 21, lost to South Dakota State by 10, and lost to North Dakota.
Omaha on the road has beaten North Dakota by 4, lost to South Dakota by 10, lost to Denver by 15, lost to South Dakota State by 17, lost to Oral Roberts by 3 in OT, and beat IPFW by 2. Not impressive.
When you look at the game, not surprisingly a lot of red for WIU on Ken Pom. So, does Omaha have enough to beat this WIU team by 5? As I am writing this, I think they do but it’s only a lean for now. I wouldn’t be surprised if they do. They have shown in the past they can and I don’t like backing this WIU team at home. You get much more overreaction on the road. Omaha defense is okay, #5. Their offensive numbers are below average but everyone looks good against WIU.
I will also lean under the total for now, 153.5 is asking for a lot from both of these teams. WIU last home game should have went under but we got OT. WIU has been able to put up some points at home when they don’t face a strong defense but we would need Omaha to match this. Omaha wins this game 79-71 and this game would still go under by 3.5 points.
Update: it's noon as I update this, I am upgrading Omaha to a like. Line is down to -4.5. NDSU total is up to 144.5. Hope you guys took over 144.