I am off a great Saturday in Summit League then a brutal Sunday. 21-20 now in these write ups.
South Dakota St @ North Dakota (+4, 150)
All these Dakota schools are about to face each other. It’s an odd scheduling quark. South Dakota State isn’t in a look ahead with South Dakota. North Dakota will get up for this game despite playing North Dakota State next game. If South Dakota State wants to win the regular season conference, they must take care of business here. North Dakota State and South Dakota are either tied or right behind them.
These 2 teams have been playing on and off over the last decade. Last 3 seasons, South Dakota St is 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS, and 1-2 O/U. The one-time South Dakota St didn’t cover was last year at North Dakota but they were laying a hefty number of 8.5. South Dakota State won that game 78-74.
Last time these 2 teams played in early January, South Dakota State won 87-66, line South Dakota State -7, and total 146. In the 1st half, South Dakota State outscored North Dakota 41-25. 2nd half they outscored them 46-41. South Dakota State shot 50% from the field and 33.3% from 3. North Dakota shot 41.1% from the field and 18.8% from 3. This is well below North Dakota’s averages in conference. South Dakota State had a bad 3-point game. North Dakota had 24 fouls in that game compared to 19 for South Dakota State. I expect that to flip for the most part.
North Dakota has a weak HCA, #214 and their stadium is the 307th largest in D1. South Dakota State on the road in conference lost Omaha by 3, beat Denver by 12, beat IPFW by 9, lost to South Dakota by 15, beat Oral Roberts by 15, and Western Illinois by 10. In their wins, they didn’t allow a team to score more than 70 and in 3 of those games, they didn’t allow more than 61 points. The 2 losses are both justifiable, they were in a look ahead spot during South Dakota and Omaha has been up and down this year. This South Dakota State team is very young and just need to get their feet wet during Omaha and were up 42-36 1st half.
North Dakota at home in conference has beaten IPFW by 14, lost to Omaha by 4, beat Denver by 6, Western Illinois by 6, Oral Roberts by 6, and lost to South Dakota by 14. South Dakota State is far superior to the teams North Dakota has beaten at home. South Dakota State is better than South Dakota because they play nice(er) defense especially in conference and still can put up points.
In terms of the game, South Dakota State is #1 effective FG%, #1 offensive rebounding, and #1 3P%. North Dakota is #3 in conference for defense but #277 overall (this conference is terrible on defense). They are #3 in effective FG% defense, weak defensive rebounding team, and #6 in 3-point defense. South Dakota State has the #1 defense in conference, #1 effective FG defense, and #1 3-point team. I am not sure how they will put up points here.
I am surprised people are buying North Dakota here. This team isn’t good, they beat up on the bad teams of Summit League. In the wise words of Uncle Dave, if I am going to back a road team, they better have a good defense. I will gladly lay the -4 with the Jackrabbits. I highly encourage you guys to wait for the -3.5, I see it at 5dimes and trending that way to on Betonline and Pinnacle. The only thing I can argue for why this line is coming down is South Dakota State lookahead but I disagree.
In terms of the total, I lean under. 150 is asking a lot here to me but not sure if it is high enough to bet it. Needing about 77 from South Dakota State and 73 from North Dakota. South Dakota State might be able to carry if needed. South Dakota State wins 81-70.
Trends curiosity of @theFlashCash (twitter)
SDSU:
14-3 ATS as a favorite
19-7 whole season, 8-5 on the road
4-0 when spread is -6 to -1, 3-1 on the road under this condition
13-4 ATS vs teams that win less than 50% of games
11-5 vs teams allowing more than 72 ppg
10-3 ATS with less than 4 days rest
ND:
7-15 ATS all games
2-4 ATS at home
4-12 ATS as a dog or pick
0-4 ATS vs teams that win >65% of games
5-8 ATS after 4+ days of rest
North Dakota State @ South Dakota (-1.5, 149)
I don’t have much for this game, I think the line is right. Only reason why I lean South Dakota is this has been a back and forth series since 2016 with each teaming 1 game each year. For that I lean South Dakota. At a total of 149, I lean over also. NDSU has good defense but overrated because they had a nice 2 game stretch skewing their results. South Dakota has put up at least 80 points at home in conference in all their games.
My guess is this game comes close at the end, South Dakota wins 78-75. Not sure about this game at all.
If I find anything new about these games, I will update this.