Big card today including all the Big 12 games. Without further ado, here we go:
Baylor -6 at Oklahoma State The Bears are 4-0 in Big 12 play and 4-0 ATS. They have the look and feel of a team that can win it all in April. The Pokes just look lost these days at 0-4 in Big 12 play. Six points is a lot to lay on the road in conference play, but I'm not stepping in front of this Bears train.
Texas +7 vs Kansas Kansas is one of those teams that grades out very well in the analytics, but is not nearly as good on the eye test. They have played a great schedule which has vaulted them to the top of KenPom ratings, among others. Which I believe leads to a lot of inflated lines. While I believe they win today, I think 7 points is too many. KU is coming off a 14 point win at Oklahoma, and Texas is coming off a win at Oklahoma State. Shaka Smart is basically on a death watch with his job. But he seems to give Kansas fits, and I think the Horns will play for him at home. Kansas in a close 3-5 point game.
Oklahoma -3.5 vs TCU TCU was exposed the other night at West Virginia, and I look for that to continue here. OU is no great shakes, but TCU's record is phony due to its weak schedule.
West Virginia -5.5 at Kansas State Again, this is a lot of points to lay on the road, but the Mountaineers are the real deal this year. Kansas State lost way too much off last year's team, and they are struggling now. The Wildcats lost at home by 14 the other night (though the game played closer than that) and I expect to see more of the same today. WVU plays a tough nosed defense, and as they say, defense travels.
Texas Tech -7.5 vs Iowa State Tech is down a bit this year. ISU is down a lot. Tech may have gotten back on track with its 14-point win at KSU the other night. I thought ISU had Baylor in a decent spot the other night and still lost by 13. Tech by double digits.
Others:
Wichita State -3.5
Kentucky +1.5 & ML
ADDED PLAY:
Missouri +7 Alabama is undoubtedly a popular public play today after knocking off previously unbeaten Auburn this week. Add to that a thoroughly embarrassing performance from Missouri at Mississippi State, and you have the perfect setup for an inflated line. I like Bama to win, but 7 seems to be a lot of points. How can this Alabama team play in the favorites role with the target on them instead of the other way around?
N Carolina ML
More to come. BOL everyone!