I am a nice run of 8-6 in these write ups, lets make it 9-6!
Brown @ Yale (-11, 134.5)
Brown is the on the road visiting Yale, last 2 years Yale is 3-1 SU with O/U of 1-3 but all 4 match ups went over the current number of 134.5 with relative easy. Yale is a good team but a borderline great team at home with the #34 home rating. Meanwhile, Brown goes from below average team at home to bottom 100 on the road with a #266 away rating. Brown on the road is 1-5, with 63PF and 78PA. Brown has been blown out in 4 of their 5 losses. Yale at home is 7-0 with some blowout wins recently. Brown is at an odd scheduling quirk; they play Yale today and play them again at home next Friday 1/24. Yale goes to Howard on Monday 1/20 then to Brown.
Yale is a top 100 offense and top 50 defense. Yale is also top 30 in scoring margin giving us more confidence they consistently blowout opponents. Brown, is near bottom 120 in offense and defense. Yale is top 50 in FG% and #5 in FG defense!! Brown is bottom 100 in FG% and mediocre in defense. Brown will struggle from the field against Yale with such a putrid FG team. The average defense isn’t concerning here either, Brown has played a very soft schedule skewing their results. 3PTs, Yale hits their 3s. They are top 70 in 3PT per game and 3PT%. To make Yale even more dangerous, they are top 15 in 3PT defense!! Brown is an average 3PT shooting team but I expect them to struggle against a top 15 defense.
Yale FT shooting is a bit of a concern because they are below average (#201) BUT here is a good thing for them, Brown is near 200 range in fouls per game. This will put Yale at the FT line more, helping with margin. Brown on the other hand, below average FT shooting AND Yale is top 20s when it comes to fouling.
Yale is a great assisting team, top 20 in assists per game versus a mediocre assisting team in Brown. Assists=points.
Both teams are good at rebounding BUT Yale has played the far superior schedule. Brown is good at ORPG while Yale is the best DRPG in the country. I like Yale to win this match up.
I like Yale -11 to cover with relative ease with the far superior defense, FG shooting, and 3 points. Yale wins this by 15+. Yale 80-60.