I wrote a little something on each of these teams over the weekend, not knowing who they'd play. Then, I cut and pasted to put them together and added what I felt relevant. I did not take them time to sort out venue, travel, rest, etc. But it's a start. If you're interested my March Madness Packages are here.
East
Duke: It's hard to argue that they won't win the whole thing, but I always look for ways they can lose, or at least not cover the spread. Much like UNC, and aside from the two losses TO UNC, teams that beat them slow them down and/or play physical, as their other losses were to Syracuse, Gonzaga, and VT. Could we see a rematch with Gonzaga? Their one weakness, which is atypical of Duke teams we are used to, is their three point shooting.
They'll play the winner of the NDSU/NC Central game. I don't think VCU or UCF can beat Duke, but they both play enough defense that after Duke coasts in game one if their fat and happy they could be laying too many points.
Iona: The MAAC Champions and they nor the MAAC are what they were, which was at least respectable. They lost badly to any good teams they play before hitting the weak conference play, and to both ugly teams (VCU) and smooth teams (Yale). They have a tough time defending almost anyone, really, and they've got quite the short bench so if they're not gonna to outscore people they're not going to win. This is a team that lost at Fairfield (#274) and at Marist (#301) so in spite of their winning streak, I probably just can't.
NC Central: These guys finished third in the regular season of MEAC play, and the MEAC is the lowest rated Conference. They're experienced, but they're also ranked 303rd out of 353 NCAA D1 teams. They did play Clemson and Cincinnati in the first week of the season, albeit not well. If you lose at home to Coppin State there may not be a number big enough to take you.
North Dakota State: They won the Summit League Tournament after finishing fourth in the regular season, a team that's barely above .500. They play very slow, don't turn the ball over, and have a bunch of guys that can flat out shoot. Then there's defense, or lack of. They're not terribly experienced nor do they have much length. I was going to type something to the effect that running teams would hammer them, only to look and see that Gonzaga beat them by 42 and Iowa State beat them by 22.
NDSU -5 - Good luck
VCU: I like VCU, but the knock here is that they play in the A10 which is the 12th ranked conference. They play superior defense and do have quite a bit of length, and the positive here may be the fact that they lost early on the A10 tournament so will have had plenty of rest. They don't shoot well from behind the arc and inside they're very young, so they're going to have to win lower scoring games, or at least not fall too far behind early because they're offense just ins't good enough to score in bunches. BECAUSE of that defense I wouldn't sleep on them, but they do turn the ball over more regularly than many teams, so a pressure defense is going to cause them trouble.
UCF: The third best team in the AAC behind Houston and Cincinnati, they're big with 7'6" Tako Fall in the middle, so if you're going to beat them it's either get him in foul trouble or shoot over him. Overlooked here is their PG, Senior BJ Taylor. They play slow and do get to the FT line a lot, so they can give people trouble. The knock here is their weak non-conference schedule and the fact that it's been hard for them to win away from home. If a slow team wants to go toe-to-toe with them they can beat anyone, but it's been my experience that the Committee won't give them that luxury.
Line VCU -1: Because I said a team that want to go at with UCF might be in trouble, UCF can win this game and in my opinion is only slight favorites BECAUSE they're VCU.
Liberty: A- Sun Tournament champions, knocking off the favored Lipscomb. They played at, and respectably, Georgetown, Vanderbilt, and a semi-away game against Alabama, so another team that has the experience playing more notable teams. They play very deliberate and just don't beat themselves.
Mississippi State: I went looking for a marquee win, especially one not in Starkeville, and can't find one. However, as a very young team last season they did make it to the NIT Finals before losing to Penn State. They've got length, although they can get sloppy with the ball and don't play great perimeter defense as evidenced by their losses to many quicker teams that can shoot over them.
Line Mississippi State -7.5: If the Bulldogs get jump-shot happy, not only will they not cover, this could be your first #12 seen to advance.
St. Louis: The surprise winner in the A10 Tournament with a huge 2H comeback over St. Bonaventure, much to my chagrin. They just don't have much of an offense at all, have a very short bench, and are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation. They've go zero post season experience dating back to 2014, and I suppose Travis Ford has done a great job, all things considered, but playing Sunday and playing four straight games is going to make it tough next week. This is a team that if they play a running team I want nothing to do with, and to be honest would almost blindly take an under.
Virginia Tech: A super slow team that relies heavily on three's and it appears they'll get stud Justin Robinson back. They were a three-loss team before he went down, so maybe a bit under valued to the general public. I do get concerned about their defense especially if they're off shooting, as they were against UVA (a massive loss) and North Carolina where they allowed 103 points WITH Robinson. They've got a short bench, so they do need to play slow as evidenced by their two losses to FSU, who made them run.
Line V-Tech -9.5: That is lower than I expected it to be to be honest, but I will probably stand by my "under" in an STL game.
Maryland: This is a solid Maryland team that's capable of beating anyone, but they're also one of the youngest teams in the nation so obviously capable of implosion. What I don't see on their schedule are many really good wins, but the upside may be losing to Nebraska in the first round of the Big Ten tournament and getting tons of extra rest. For some teams that's a huge plus. They seemed to fare well against the more athletic and less physical teams, but seemed to have trouble with very physical teams like the Badgers, Michigan, and of course Nebraska. For them it's all about the matchup, maybe more than many other teams.
They'll play the Belmont/Temple winner
Belmont: This is actually a better version of the Belmont teams the last couple of years, but they haven't been here lately. They'll do what they do, which is play super quick and fire away from deep. They played Purdue tough and beat UCLA on the road, so the time I couldn't back them is against a sluggish team that takes them out of the run or a team with a superior perimeter defense. They played Murray State without star Freshman Nick Muszyinsky, so that loss was partially predictable. If he's back, they can still beat almost anyone, in spite of the OVC schedule.
Temple: I've liked Temple all season, except when they're on the road. For their length, their interior defense isn't very good, yet their perimeter defense is. It was #1 in the AAC. They don't have any really bad losses, but on occasion can get a little too enamored with three point shooting and we know that's a feast or famine proposition.
Line Belmont -3.5: I thought I'd love Belmont, but as I said Temple has the best perimeter defense in the AAC and there IS the big strength of schedule thing. I don't know about this game, but I do know either of these teams can beat Maryland.
LSU: I tried both hard an unsuccessfully to find spots to bet against LSU and their relative inexperience, especially down the stretch. This is a team that played seven overtime games, winning five of them, and winning several other close games late, so they do know what do to down the stretch. With that in mind, the Will Wade wiretap and subsequent suspension by the school has to have an impact, and in my opinion it'll have a big one. Obviously more so, pending Smart and Reid's playing status - although I wrote most of this Saturday and it appears they'll play.
Yale: The Ivy League champs who do have some exposure to playing elite teams, albeit without a lot of success. They've got experience on the court, quite a bit in fact, but none in the post season. They won't play a pressure defense, and they so play surprisingly quick for an Ivy League team, so they can hang with teams that don't try to run them out of the gym as Duke did, since they beat Miami and pushed Memphis to overtime. It'd be hard to bet against such a disciplined team and they may be good for an "over" early on.
Line LSU -7.5: I suspect people will shortly be all over LSU because that does seem cheap. LSU is a team I want no part of right now, either way. I've said their youth will eventually cost them and maybe that's exactly what happened against Florida.
Louisville: I gave them out as a long-shot future not too long ago, not because I think they can win it all but because at those odds (75:1 at the time) they do have the talent and especially now the coaching with Mack to beat anyone. It's a potential hedge situation if they win a few games. They've got a top 30 offense and the 17th ranked defense in the nation, so there's certainly a good start given that they accrued those numbers in the ACC. These guys did play and win a few games in the NIT last year, but any team that plays good defense and shoots 77% from the FT line is always worth looking at. They did beat UNC and Seton Hall on the road and beat Michigan State at home, so in spite of their tough finish if teams over look them they will get to the second weekend.
Minnesota: I guess the Gophers played themselves in in the Conference Tournament, but I am still not buying. They were pitiful when not at home. Yes, they played in arguably the best conference, but they just struggle to score. They're big, and looking up and down their schedule they had a really hard time with the teams that will play physical with them, and although they're "known" for playing defense, the fact of the matter is that they were 10th in defensive efficiency on their own conference.
Line Louisville -4.5: I was hoping for less but I have to stick with L'ville here inasmuch as Minnesota has become somewhat trendy.
Michigan State: We know not to bet against Izzo this time of year, and in spite of losing Nick Ward the Spartans still won five of the last six regular season games, convincingly, and beat Michigan twice. They don't have a lot of weaknesses, and in spite of playing in arguably the best conference and the 12th toughest schedule in the nation they have a Top 20 offense and the second ranked (efficiency) defense in the nation, and I think you'll find that for the last 15 or so year the eventual champion had a top 20 offense and a top 20 defense.
Bradley: I don't have a lot of faith in a .500 team in the MVC that finished fourth in the regular season, but on the upside they're quite experienced, although on the court certainly not at this level. They did beat both Penn State and SMU in Mexico last Fall, but a team with the sixth best offense in the MVC doesn't seem like someone I'd want to bet on. It's another methodical team that relies heavily on jump shots, so whoever they play I look for a low scoring game.
Line Michigan State 19.5: Perhaps the best bet is MSU 1H. Izzo know how to win Tournaments and they've got to play six games to do that. I suspect he'll want a big enough lead to rest people, and Bradley can't score.
West
Gonzaga: Every year people wonder if this is their year and this year is no different. They had some quality wins over Arizona when the Wildcats were at full strength as well as over Duke, and their two regular season losses were to Tennessee and North Carolina. As in years' past if there's a formula for beating them, and historically it's been teams that will make them play slower than they want, although this season they haven't played anyone that will. Last season their regular season losses were to slower team that would play physical with them, Florida being the prime example, so if they're going out this season that would probably be the blueprint of the team that has a shot to beat them.
They'll play the winner of Farleigh Dickinson/Prairie View
Farliegh Dickinson: They rolled through the NEC, but the NEC is the 30th rated conference out of 32. They didn't play anyone better than Rutgers (in the season opener) who beat them by 35 points, which could make betting on them tough.They're a superior three point shooting team but very much undersized and play on the methodical side, with a defense rated fairly low, even considering their level of competition. KenPom has them ranked 206th in the nation, which is actually the best they've been since 2006.
Prairie View: They were the wire-to-wire SWAC Champions and don't let their record fool you. They started 1-11 and played 12 straight road games to start the season, many against very good teams, hence the very experienced Panthers rolled from there. This is still rare air for these guys, but they're small, fast, and play tenacious defense.
Line Farleigh Dickinson -1.5: I have to think the wrong team may be favored, but who really knows. The winner gets to be sacrificed to the Zags before the Seniors go on the be doctors and dentists.
Syracuse: Some, including me, would argue that they're in based on one win at Duke and/or playing in the ACC. Maybe even a little Boeheim. They're your typical Syracuse team with lots of length and marginal, at best, offense. They could give people that never see that zone issues but by the same token the way teams have beaten it year after year is shooting over it. So, I'd give them a chance against most team almost because of the Boeheim factor, but against a great shooting team I'd have to pause long and hard.
Baylor: This is the same old Scott Drew/Baylor team that does it methodically and playing good defense. However, they don't have the talent they might have had in years' past. They won exactly one road game after January 28th and come in limping, losing the last three conference games and the early exit to Iowa State, their lone road win after the 28th, in the B12 Tournament. If they're not hitting three's or are forced to run as ISU made them, it's going to be tough to get out of the first weekend.
Line Syracuse -1.5: Because Baylor CAN shoot three's and Mason is back I give the Bears a fighting chance, but admittedly some of that might be the fact that I just don't like Syracuse. Probably a low scoring game and it's not likely either of them beat Gonzaga, although I'd give Syracuse a better chance.
Murray State: Although they play in a weak Conference they played both Alabama and Auburn to the wire, on the road. Ja Morant may be the best player on the floor, and there are pieces left from a Murray State team that played WVU and lost in the first round last year. They do too many things well and not enough things badly to bet against, regardless of the OVC schedule.
Marquette: Until the middle of February they were one of the trendy "bet-on" teams for many people, and then of course they lost the last four regular season games and were bounced from the Big East Tournament by a red hot Seton Hall team. They will go as far as their three-point shooting carries them but for me it's hard to just turn it back on when you've fallen from grace as far as they have. On the flip side, often times people might jump off the horse a bit too soon as they CAN beat anyone.
Line Marquette -4.5: This is another # seed that's got their work cut out for them.
FSU: Try as they might the hung with Duke for a half in the ACC Final. They finished the regular season on a 12-1 run, losing only (badly) at North Carolina. However, they really didn't beat the elite, especially away from Tallahassee. That may mean they're somewhat over valued. They do have a superior interior defense, and you'd expect that since they're huge. They did win three games in this tournament last season before losing to eventual finalist, Michigan, so they've got some experience, but again, they may have issues with a team that slows them down and can shoot over them as Michigan did last year and as UVA and Villanova did this year.
Vermont: I rarely want to bet against this team in spite of losing to UMBC twice. Year in and year out they're a solid team that makes this tournament, albeit typically an early exit. In spite of being in a weak conference they did play Kansas and Louisville tougher than you might expect early on, and both those teams play similar styles to FSU. The problem is their vastly undersized and play slow, so a fast team CAN blow them out.
Line FSU -11: That looks like an easy FSU cover, but I can make a case for Vermont in the 1H since FSU typically loses focus, and that's year after year. People are talking like this year might be different, but until the do I can't bet that they will.
Buffalo: These guys are probably one of the most fun teams to watch, playing about as fast as one can and being able to score from anywhere. They beat WVU on the road, and San Francisco, neither of which are marquee wins but they're road wins against top 100 teams. Buffalo is also very experienced, and made this Tournament last season, beating Arizona in the first round before losing to Kentucky fairly badly. They'll be a trendy pick to be that Cinderella team and I cannot disagree. The two things I worry about are them playing a bigger and methodical team that slows them down, or playing that second game on one days' rest as fatigue could set in. But, there's probably no real good reason to bet against them yet, either.
They'll play the winner of Arizona State/St. Johns
Arizona State: They'll play fast and do have some length, but as we see time and time again teams that take quick teams down to their pace and get in your face give ASU trouble. That was evident in Conference play as they lost twice to Oregon, to Utah, and out of conference to Nevada and Princeton. As an #11 seed last year they were knocked out by Syracuse, and go figure, a slow team that gets in your face. They do play in the P12 which is getting no respect, but they did beat Oregon State and Arizona on the road to close out the regular season.
St Johns: I am one that thinks the Johnnies may have totally benefited from playing in the Big East, but they were a sub .500 team that didn't really have any big wins. I don't count a couple of decent home wins over Butler and Villanova, and they did very little before conference play started. They'll go as far as Shamarie Ponds carries them, and with a short bench a running team might be able to wear them out.
Line Arizona State -1: St Johns actually lost to ASU last year so I lean ASU here - again.
Texas Tech: Losing early to WVU could be a positive in that like many teams they could benefit from the extra rest. Four of their six losses were to teams that made them run, which may have something to do with a relatively thin bench. Last year as a #3 seed they won three games before losing to Villanova, so with that experience and the glaring WVU loss they may actually be a bit under rated going forward. We know how one or two players can carry a team for a week or two and Jarrett Culver will be the best player on the court more often than not.
Northern Kentucky: The Horizon League regular season and Conference Tournament Champions. The knock on the Norse is most certainly the fact that they play basically nobody in Conference play. They played both UCF and Cincinnati, and although the scores look respectable the games were decided long before the clock hit 0:00. The upside might be that they have a few pieces left from a team the pushed Kentucky in the first round last two years ago, and they don't beat themselves.
Line Texas Tech -14:
Florida: I usually like to bet on Florida, especially at home, but part of me wonders if their games against LSU make them somewhat over valued this Tournament. Aside from LSU they don't really have a signature win, and in fact this is the worst, albeit not horrible, Florida team in several years. They clearly benefit from playing in the SEC but even before conference play started they didn't have a good win except maybe Butler, but that was at home and the second time they played the Bulldogs.
Nevada: They caught a lot of folks outside of Reno by surprise last season but because of that they're not doing it again this season. With all the experience left over from 2018 I wonder if now the expectations are so much higher and maybe some added self-imposed pressure. They didn't have a marquee win this year other than the revenge (from last season) win against Loyola Chicago, and late season losses to SDSU and Utah State show a vulnerability. One could point to them focusing on the Tournament, but you can't just turn it on.
Line Nevada -2: Opened Nevada -3 and I am inclined to agree with the early move.
Michigan: I said on a podcast a while back that Michigan had good value, possessing the second most efficient defense in the nation, a Top 20 offense, and an offense that doesn't turn the ball over. With their late-season losses to Michigan State that may make the value even better as people have taken their eyes off this team. It's a team with a great coach and some players left over from the Championship game last season. Where they may struggle is on the second game of a given week, especially if they've had to work hard in the first one because they've got a super-thin bench.
Montana: Another team that's slow but can score, and they're the 6th most experienced team in the nation. They did get here last year, as a somewhat better team, and were bounced in round one against Michigan. Inasmuch as I see very little redeeming value in a Big Sky team, that could give them just enough to at least cover a spread. They did play a few decent teams out of conference, but for the most part those games weren't competitive. If they have to run they could be in some trouble.
Line Michigan -16: No strong opinion
Summation: You have to think Gonzaga gets there, but honestly after that there are many possibilities. I think the bottom half of this bracket has several teams that can win, and even someone like Buffalo isn't going quietly.
South
Virginia: It's the same story as Gonzaga. Is this the year they go the distance or is it more of the same. I might look for them to win handily in the first round after losing to UMBC in the first round last year. And, much like Gonzaga there is a formula/history of team that UVA tends to struggle with or even lose to. They play slow and as deliberate as anyone in the nation, but when they're taken out of their comfort zone the can be beaten, as evidenced by their two losses to Duke this season and even last year, their two regular season losses to VT and WVU were both teams that play significantly quicker.
Gardner-Webb: They were the third best team in the Big South, a conference that's ranked higher than the OVC, the Colonial, and the OVC, which are traditionally "decent" conferences. They're a great shooting team but they are very tiny. In non-conference play they did push VCU, played Virginia Tech, and took Furman to overtime on the road, so they aren't going to be out of their element aside from the fact that it's a team with basically no post-season experience.
Line UVA -23.5: That's a lot of points for a UVA team that has nothing to prove and could rest, but, losing to UMBC last year could preclude that.
Mississippi: These guys are the beneficiary of beating Auburn, twice. They benefit from the SEC, and I suppose 10-8 in the SEC is good but they struggled down the stretch, losing four of six and only beating Missouri and Georgia, then were knocked out of a game they allegedly had to win over Alabama in the first round of the SEC Tournament. They're an above average offense who struggles to defend the perimeter, and don't have a lot of size, so a bigger team that can shoot will give them trouble.
Oklahoma: The Sooners are not in because of what they did in B12 play, but more what the did before Conference play started. They beat Wofford which at the time might have seemed like very little, and they dispatched Florida, Witchita State, Notre Dame, and SoCal. That's not the murderer's row but those are all games they could have lost. They're super experienced and this is a team that did make it last year, only to get bounced early by Rhode Island. It was a very similar season in that they had a great start against good teams then went sub .500 in Conference play, and to be honest history may repeat itself. They struggle to score and played slower this season than in years' past, so a total may be too high early on.
Line Mississippi -2: Oklahoma is not the big team that can shoot, not this year. I think Ole Miss may get this done.
Oregon: The Ducks are maybe the team that put it together at the right time that nobody wants to play right now. They're obviously well coached and more or less playing on borrowed time which is always a dangerous combination. They may well get discounted just playing in the P12, but they haven't lost in a month. The caveat with these guys is their youth, but if they're allowed to play at their pace, which is slow and methodical, they can beat anyone. Most of their losses were to quicker team that could shoot over their size.
Wisconsin: Typical Badger team that plays slow and plays elite defense, relying heavily on the three-ball on offense. People were writing them off after the 11-6 start, but aside from letting Western Kentucky beat them on the road they don't have bad losses. They've got length and they are very good at protecting the ball, but I do worry about a team that shoots so poorly from the line, especially when it comes to covering a short spread,
Line PK: Wisconsin opened -2: So the early money went on the Ducks. They may be peaking at the right time, but I wonder how much of that initial move is people remembering what they saw last, which was the Ducks hammering Washington.
Kansas St: I suppose if Wade is back they're instantly upgraded, but I wonder if it's not TOO much upgraded. Maybe not, and although I do like my teams that can play defense, it's hard to back teams that rely almost exclusively on defense and cannot shoot free throws. On the other hand this is a very experienced team that lost in the fourth round to Loyola Chicago last year after beating Kentucky, so that IS a big plus. Their last three losses were to Iowa State (twice) and Kansas, so as you'd expect teams that make them run, as they want to play quite deliberate. If they fall behind early it might be tough to come back for them with a marginal offense.
UC Irvine: I suppose a lot of people will like theses guys, but I like to find their weaknesses. Usually we know what team do well. Clearly playing in the Big West Conference is not going to give them much competition and inflate their numbers. They do have a very deep bench and a ton of Seniors which is always a big plus. They had a big win at St. Marys but lost to a quicker Toledo team, so that should tell you what type of team is likely to be their undoing. If Worku and Edgar are able to play, I wouldn't sleep on them since they did win their last five games without either of them.
Line Kansas St -5.5: In a game that won't see a ton of points I'd be leery of laying them.
St. Marys: We know they beat Gonzaga, but I wonder if that doesn't give them to much value early since people tend to remember what they saw last. Two of the last three years they've been an NIT team, so part of me wonders if beating Gonzaga really was their end game. They play super slow, as we know, which can frustrate the running teams. They CAN beat anyone, but aside from the WCC Championship game, they didn't beat anyone this season.
Villanova: It's hard to bet against a Jay Wright team with an experienced backcourt, but it's clear looking at their losses this season that teams that shoot over them beat them. They lose early to Michigan and even their Big East losses were to those types of teams. I do worry betting on them against teams that will make them run, as Kansas did, primarily because they're bench is short.
Line Villanova -6: St Mary's is exactly the type of team that can give Villanova trouble. The only downside is the game being in Hartford.
Purdue: Every year the Boilermakers peak in late February or early March, only to fizzle out. However, this season they didn't and although they've got eight losses, none of them were what I'd call of the "bad" variety. On the flip side of that is the fact that they did lose to most of the elite teams they play in non-conference games, and being a team that relies so heavily on the three point shot, good perimeter defenses are going to give them issues, as was the case with those early season losses this season.
Old Dominion: The Monarchs beating Western Kentucky was one of my favorite bets to win this season. Everyone discounted these guys. With that in mind, they did beat VCU and Syracuse this season, and played Oregon State tough. They're big, and slower paced, and if they don't hit their three's they struggle to score elsewhere, and of course they lack experience in this tournament.
Line Purdue -12: I actually like this game to stay under, and if Purdue does what they often do the may escape with a win and not a cover.
Cincinnati: A great win over Houston on Sunday, but that obviously begs the question as to whether they can get it going again on short rest. They're a GOOD team but without Clark and Washington they're not what they were last year when Nevada knocked them out. Nevada shot over that defense, which is how the Bearcats often lose. That's exactly how they lost to Ohio State and Mississippi State this season, and it was much the same in an upset loss at ECU when the Pirates shot 40% from behind the arc. They're not very big, and honestly that win over Houston might have been somewhat predictable since the Cougars had already beaten them twice.
Iowa: Your typical Iowa team that plays very fast and can score from anywhere, gets to the line a lot and is an excellent FT shooting team. The knock here is that they didn't finish well, losing five of six regular season games then losing badly to Michigan in the second round of the B10 Tournament. That's not surprising because it was Michigan, but it was a team that'll take them out of what they like to do, as were many of those late losses - to teams that were physical and play slow. They DO have some size, but by the same token didn't play anyone early. This is a team that could either surprise, or, well, surprise.
Line Cincinnati -3.5: Huge contrast in styles here and whoever wins that control for pace probably wins the game. Again I wonder if the Bearcats win over Houston on Sunday has anything to do with the early UC money. It's also shorter rest for them.
Tennessee: The Vols are a super-experienced team that last season were one of Loyola Chicago's victims, something they can perhaps draw on this year. They've got the third most efficient offense in the nation and a Top 30 defense, so perhaps given their late-season losses they might have some value. My biggest issue with Tennessee is that they lost some close games late so I wonder how they might react when not in Knoxville in a one-possession game in the last minutes. They've got the talent with Williams inside and Schofield outside to beat anyone, but as you know in close games coaching and preparation are everything and I've never been able to trust Rick Barnes.
Colgate: These guys could be the sacrificial lamb. On the positive side they played a decent non-conference schedule, but didn't play anyone close. They're a methodical, three-point shooting team that has some turnover issues on offense that hasn't lost since February 2nd, and it looks as if they play a pressure defense or someone with a good perimeter defense they could be in for a long night.
Line Tennessee -17.5: UT's loss to Auburn hurt them in more ways than one. Although I can't see Colgate winning I can't see Tennessee being overly concerned with defense, either. And, teams like Colgate will extend even a lopsided game to magnify the experience and get everyone significant minutes. Maybe over.
Summation: I cannot see UVA being tested too much, and like the bottom half of the West it's pretty wide open. We saw the way to beat the Vols, but there aren't teams in that bracket that play Auburn's style. If Iowa gets past Cincinnati they could upset Tennessee.
Midwest
North Carolina: The Tar Heels are high on everyone's list, especially after beating Duke twice, but of course that was a Duke team without Zion. I remember being heavy against them back when Michigan hammered them, and as we know there are blueprints that certain teams might struggle against, and a slower more physical team will give UNC more than they want. Both Texas and Virginia beat them. The Duke loss after a big first half, could, if nothing else, make them "think" in a close game and that's never a good thing. But, a clear favorite.
Iona: The MAAC Champions and they nor the MAAC are what they were, which was at least respectable. They lost badly to any good teams they play before hitting the weak conference play, and to both ugly teams (VCU) and smooth teams (Yale). They have a tough time defending almost anyone, really, and they've got quite the short bench so if they're not gonna to outscore people they're not going to win. This is a team that lost at Fairfield (#274) and at Marist (#301) so in spite of their winning streak, I probably just can't.
Line UNC -24: No opinion
Washington: The Huskies were arguably the best team in the P12 most of the season, but it just may be that their stats and even wins were just that skewed based on that performance against Oregon. They way to beat these guys, if your not going to go toe-to-toe with them inside (which hasn't worked) is to shoot over them as Auburn did early in the season, beating them by 22 points. Further evidence of that is the fact that Gonzaga tried the toe-to-toe thing and almost lost at home to Washington. They're super experienced, but still only two years removed from a 2-16 Pac 12 season. So, the right matchups against teams that won't run and they may win a few, against a running team that can shoot, they may not.
Utah State: Being in the same conference as Nevada people may have overlooked this team until now. They did play a decent non-conference schedule, but they reality is that they didn't beat any good teams. They probably benefited from SDSU knocking out Nevada for them to win the MWC Tournament, otherwise they're an NIT team. First year coach Craig Smith comes over from South Dakota, so he nor any of the team has any experience at this. They don't beat themselves, and playing more or less on borrowed time they may be hard to bet against.
Line Utah State -2.5: This actually opened -3 and people may be buying the whole "Washington is the best team in the P12 thing." Washington can't score enough, but I don't see this being a very high scoring game. Under, perhaps.
Auburn: The upside of the Tigers is their experience and a great non-conference schedule, but for me the downside of relying so heavily on three's and not being very successful outside of their own gym outweighs that. They lose almost exclusively on the road and to teams that will make them run, and the other vulnerability here is their length, or lack of. Defensively they led the nation in turning people over, so there is that. Last season as a much younger team they faltered down the stretch after starting 21-2 and I remember thinking that Pearl just wore them out too early, and this season they played a much more controlled pace. I still question Pearl when the rubber meets the road in a close game.
New Mexico State: The WAC regular season and Tournament Champions, who haven't lost since they lost the WAC opener January 3rd to Cal Baptist. They did play Kansas to a three-point loss early on, but were drubbed by St. Mary's, so maybe a slow team is a worse matchup for them. They are the third most experienced team in the nation, but they are also one of the smallest, so a team that plays offense near the basket isn't a great draw, and that can be underlined by the fact that they did get here last year and were knocked out early by Clemson, who does just that.
Line: Auburn -7: And the very early money is on NMSU. It's also a short rest for Auburn who has to play out West. Sucks for them, big time. Be careful.
Kansas: Losing the B12 Tournament to ISU might be a good thing in that they'll get that extra days' rest, which historically has helped many of the elite/public teams. Although they've got talent I do worry about their inexperience, which is something that may have shown against ISU, especially playing their third game in three days. That would perhaps have me looking at fading them on their second game of the week on two days' rest. For me they're an out-of-character team in that their defense is actually better than their offense, and as a team that has trouble protecting the ball, a team that can shoot over them and slow the game down is where they may struggle.
Northeastern: They beat the #1 seed Hofstra to win the CAA and are a very experienced team that doesn't beat themselves. They did beat Alabama in non-conference play and had the one bad loss to Delaware but are otherwise solid. They can score with anyone but they are a perimeter shooting team that's weak inside, especially defensively. A bigger team that forces them to run will give them issues.
Line Kansas -8.5: Since I said a team that forced Northeastern to run might give them trouble I have to lean Kansas for the moment.
Iowa State: This was another team that everyone had penciled in as a potential Final Four team at the start of the new year, especially after they trounced Kansas to run their record to 12-2. Then of course they lost six of eight to end the regular season before beating Kansas, again, to win the Conference Tournament. So which is it? They have a fairly short bench and if they have a weakness it's perimeter defense, and the reason they may have won the Conference Tournament is BECAUSE they didn't play a team that can shoot from outside. I am not knocking them as much as looking for way not to just hop back on the train.
Ohio State: They're clearly the beneficiary of playing in the B10, albeit a sub .500 Conference team. Although the beat Cincinnati to open the season, the Creighton, that's about it for good wins and even those wins are just "decent," really. They're only true conference road win was at Indiana, and that's so typical of OSU teams over the years even before Holtman. They tend to have a chance against the athletic teams but against the physical and slower ones they're just soft. On the plus side they've got an experience back court and may go as Kaleb Wesson goes, but I only need to look at last year when a physical Gonzaga team beat them after they knocked off the athletic, running team, South Dakota State.
Line ISU -5.5: Early money on the Buckeyes here, I want no part of it yet.
Houston: I didn't see them winning the regular season finale at Temple, but they did more than win, they crushed the Owls. They've beaten teams from every discipline, from quick teams like BYU to Oregon and even LSU. With three Senior starters including both guards, they're not going to beat themselves. I look for how teams can LOSE, and I had to go back to last year. It seems the slower teams that can play defense might have a shot, since they lost twice to Cincinnati and were knocked out of the Tournament by Michigan. But, I wonder if playing a tough game on Sunday has and effect.
Georgia State: They made it here last season only to get hammered by Cincinnati in the first round and played a tight game Sunday in the Sun Belt Championship game. They beat St. Bonaventure in the early season but after the Bonnie's collapse Sunday that's not saying much. The lost to Creighton, badly, and fell to Kansas State on the road after playing them tough for a good while. I have to think that was more a matter of the Wildcats not taking them seriously, however. They're very experienced but at the same time have a short bench, and rely on three's almost exclusively, and because of their three's and lack of length they're not a good rebounding team. They won their conference last year and were knocked out by Cincinnati in the first round, so they've got some experience here but that's exactly the type of team that'll cause them to exit early again.
Line Houston -12: I guess it all depends on how Houston reacts to playing Sunday and losing game they thought they'd win.
Wofford: They're not going to sneak up on anyone this season, and one thing to keep in mind is that they're ranked, in the Four Factors (IMO perhaps the most accurate on-paper assessment) at KenPom, the ninth best team in the nation. They're a relatively slow paced team that relies on three pointers, shooting almost 42% on the season. The caveat here is that although the l played some stiff non-conference teams, they lost to most of them, all of which made them run. They don't have post-season experience, which could hurt.
Seton Hall: This is a team that can beat anyone or lose to anyone. They beat Kentucky, yet lost twice to Depaul. They lost a lot from a team that beat NC State in the first round last season before falling to Kansas, barely. They played a solid schedule and have a ton of length.
Line: Wofford -3: I won't bet against Wofford.
Kentucky: This is a team that seemed, to me, to be under the radar as much as a Kentucky team can be this season. On paper they've got the 13th most efficient offense and the 8th most efficient defense, so the "numbers" are there to suggest they can get to suggest that they can get to Minneapolis. Reid Travis' health/knee not withstanding, this is a Wildcat team that both got TO the FT line and shoot exceedingly well from it, more so than in years' past. They've got the guy behind the bench, for sure, and as long as they don't run into a team like Duke or LSU that will make them run and has length, they're on my short list.
Abeline Christian: Well, then. They have experience but that's where it ends for me. The best team they played, aside from losing at Texas Tech by 34, was Sam Houston State, who beat them twice. If it weren't for a huge upset of SHS by New Orleans it's probably that these guys are not here. I love what they do, but it will be hard for me to get beyond that strength of schedule. KP has them ranked 145th, and I'm afraid that they're not the 15 seed that's going to make any noise. However, catching a ton of points against a team that really just wants to win and rest, it's not out of the question to take them ATS.
Line Kentucky -22: