As a follow-up to my original 68 team thread, here's the Sweet Sixteen breakdowns, complete with a lean in each game.
Texas A & M/Michigan: The Aggies have the 10th rated defensive (efficiency) in the nation, while the Wolverines have the third rated defense in the nation. It's hard to look at anything but an under here. When you add that to the fact that there's no familiarity between these two teams, there should be a reasonable feeling out process. Of course that brings the 1H under into play as well.
There's no SEC team quite like Michigan, but Georgia and perhaps Missouri play at least a similar pace. The Aggies' game with UGA saw 121 points in Athens while their game with the Tigers saw 110 in Columbia. Michigan doesn't see a defense anywhere near what the Aggies will throw at them in the Big Ten, period. The two best defenses in the Big Ten were Nebraska and Ohio State. Michigan's games against Ohio State produced 133 and 136 points, and the Buckeyes have a better offense than Texas A & M. Michigan's games against Nebraska, including one in the Big Ten Tournament, ended with 130 and 123 points.
The total for this game opened 134 and is currently sitting at 136. I'm not buying it.
Florida/Gonzaga: The Zags come into this game having let Ohio State get closer than it looked like they would, and of course squeaking by UNC Greensboro, so at least in the public's eye maybe a little bit under rated. On the other hand FSU had the big comeback against #1 seed Xavier, so again, in the perception arena they could be a little over rated. The game is in Los Angeles, so a clear crowd advantage is likely for Gonzaga.
Florida State doesn't play many teams as quick or that play the kind of defense Gonzaga plays with the possible exception of Duke, who beat FSU 100-93 in Cameron Indoor way back in late December. Gonzaga of course plays exactly nobody like FSU in the WCC, but played several teams in non-conference play that could be considered more up-tempo than most. They won both games, against Washington and Creighton, handily. Like most games, this comes down to defense, and because FSU had the 13th ranked defense in the ACC, I cannot take them. Gonzaga doesn't turn the ball over, nor does FSU create many. If FSU has an advantage it's that they get to the line with more regularity than Gonzaga, but that may not be enough. FSU was still a middle-of-the-road ACC team and if experience has anything to say here then Gonzaga will get it done.
Loyola-Chicago/Nevada: I suppose people will want to push Loyola to the Elite 8 and write off Nevada, but Nevada has already been written off twice. This is a game that I look at and see that Nevada is slightly favored, and I think to myself what this line would have been two weeks ago. My best guess is that on a neutral floor the Wolfpack would have been a considerably bigger favorite.
The thing here is that Loyola beat Miami, a team that I said before the Tournament started was fielding their worst team in five years, and could be vulnerable. They were, and youth probably had something to do with that. Loyola then beat Tennessee, a team that I said with Rick Barnes was going to do what Barnes' coached teams always do, lose. So, although Loyola has impressed me, they haven't beaten anyone they shouldn't have. We know what Nevada did against Cincinnati, but remember that they did similar against Texas, with Shaka Smart on the Longhorn bench, Mo Bamba, and perhaps an equally good defense as the one they saw against the Bearcats. Being down so many points, twice, simply has to give them that much more confidence in any situation, and they've got a ton of experience. Nevada doesn't turn the ball over and now has some rest they didn't have against Cincinnati, so if Sister Jean has Loyola losing in the Sweet Sixteen, who am I to buck the 98 year old team Chaplain.
Kansas State/Kentucky: I was on Kentucky big in their win over Buffalo, but beating Davidson and Buffalo, who plays little or no defense, is not the same as beating Kansas State. The Wildcats on the other hand, beat a Creighton team that can't (or won't) play defense and then of course UMBC. The take away from the Baltimore County game is that Kansas State only scored 50 points.
This game, first and foremost, will be about Kansas State's ability to slow the game down to their pace, which is slow. Both Missouri an UGA in the SEC try the same approach, an although the games with Kentucky were lower scoring, Kentucky won all three games, with only the SEC opener in Lexington being close. We do know Kentucky is a better team today than they were then, albeit still very young. Kansas State will generally create more turnovers than Kentucky, and that could be a factor with Kentucky being young, and NOW having expectations. If the Wildcats keep Kentucky off the free throw line, they can win the game, and I certainly don't see 138 points being scored. If it gets that high, I have to think Kentucky wins/covers.
Clemson/Kansas: To me this game typifies the adage that people remember what they saw last, which was Clemson blowing out Auburn and Kansas playing a close game against Seton Hall. Honestly, both were predictable since Auburn is just too young and too small and Seton Hall has been a better team than many casual bettors may have thought for a month.
Again, we've got a game that is going to be all about who controls the tempo. Clemson wants to walk and Kansas wants to run. Clemson might be a better version of Baylor and Texas, two teams Kansas sees plenty of in Conference play. All four games Kansas played against the aforementioned were very close, so my initial lean is to Clemson. In the ACC, the closest thing to Kansas that Clemson sees is Duke, and I'd consider them quite similar, but give Kansas the experience edge. Clemson lost to Duke at home, and in fact lost to most of the quicker teams, especially on the road where they probably couldn't control the pace as well. That brings me to my original point that this is about who controls the tempo. What I don't like about Kansas is their lack of a bench, so I can see them winning the 1H, and Clemson making a game of it in the second half with their deeper bench and more experience.
Texas Tech/Purdue: People are going to spend the rest of the week figuring out how the loss of Haas affects the Purdue offense, but I think it effects their defense much more. Haas being out means many more minutes for the Freshman Haarms, and that really leaves Purdue vulnerable to both foul trouble and makes them a more one-dimensional offense.
If Purdue is going to be relegated to scoring from outside, clearly Beard knows this and will only make it that much harder for the Boilermakers to score. Texas Tech just beat a team that's very similar in composition, Florida. Tech came into this Tournament very under valued. They lost four games late in Big 12 play, but first off they were close losses and most of them on the road, and more importantly that was when Keenan Evans was either out or operating at far less than full strength. Tech has the better defensive stats against a better schedule, create more turnovers, and spend more time at the free throw line. This could be a case of the wrong team being favored.
West Virginia/Villanova: This is perhaps the most intriguing of the games in my opinion. Everyone knows what West Virginia does and watched them do it over and over against Marshall. Villanova is not Marshall, and WVU had the whole "West Virginia" thing going on. However, teams that have beaten Villanova have typically been the in-your-face defenses. They lost to Butler, Providence, and St. Johns.
This goes back to something I said about the Marshall game in that if WVU doesn't turn them over then WVU has no shot, and against Villanova that's just magnified times a hundred. West Virginia has a terrible perimeter defense, and the Wildcats are very good at protecting the ball. I think that's an even bigger advantage for Villanova since the basically run a three or four-guard offense. Murray State wasn't ready for the pressure. Marshall clearly was ready but couldn't handle it. Villanova will make none of those mistakes. The game is also in Boston which clearly gives Villanova the crowd advantage. In the end I think Villanova gets it done, but I also think this game stays under the number. Although Villanova won't get turned over a lot, they'll get turned over some, which takes away Wildcat points. Conversely West Virginia is just anemic in the half court offense. They were horrible in the half court against Marshall, so how anyone thinks that's going to get better against an elite defense is beyond me. I lean to Villanova, but perhaps slightly more to the under.
Syracuse/Duke: People will probably be talking ad nauseam about Duke's offense and Syracuse's defense. I get it, but it's Duke defense and Syracuse's offense that will decide this game. Because they're both in the ACC, there probably aren't going to be any surprises. Duke beat Syracuse 60-44 in Cameron Indoor this season, and the take away there is that Syracuse held them to only 2-18 from behind the arc.
The take away from the Syracuse game against Michigan State is that they held the Spartans to only 21% from three-point land. Both of these teams are very young and have very thin benches, so much of the variable I cannot foresee is how this game is officiated. If there are too many fouls called then the "B" team will see more court, and if they're calling it loosely that probably benefits the Syracuse defense. Duke scored a ton of points against both Iona and Rhode Island, but those teams are tiny where are Syracuse is not. Syracuse scored 60/57/55 in their three games including the game against Arizona State in Dayton. I cannot see Duke and the more hybrid defense they've been playing let Syracuse get to 60. By the same token I can't see Duke being able to run away and hide just based on offensive production. If for some reason I am incorrect about that, I can see Duke resting people late, since Coach K shouldn't want to do Boeheim like that, and they'll have another game to play in 48 hours against Texas Tech if I have anything to say about it. When the clock strikes 0:00 in this game I expect it to stay under the number.