PART 1.
NCAA Championship Tournament
Math Man's Statistical Indicators:
NET EFF RATING:
Offensive Efficiency (x 100) (minus) Defensive Efficiency (x 100) = Rating
MOE RATING:
The Margin Of Expectation Rating is the average number in which a team is against the spread all season up until the tournament. The spread is fundamental measurement of expectation for a team.
PPG Rate:
Average Points Per Game for each team - as a straight up number, against the spread and as a game total.
PXSP Rating:
Avg Possessions Per Game (X) Average Shooting Percentage (X 2.32) = Score Prediction
Round Of 68 - Wednesday March 14th
Play In Game #3
Dayton, OH
NET EFF Rating
MOE Rating
PXSP Rating
PPG Rating
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Texas Southern
TXSO has an above average offense but a below average defense. NCC has an average offense and a slightly below average defense. TXSO has showed up vs the number this season and has the margin of expectation rating to show it. Both teams can score at a decent rate - both have a slightly better than 1pt/possession pace rating. I think TXSO's the better team here, with a better offense and if the game gets moving - TXSO will pull away.
Round Of 68 - Wednesday March 14th
Play In Game #4
Dayton, OH
NET EFF Rating
MOE Rating
PXSP Rating
PPG Rating
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Arizona St
It's as simple as this - take the team that deserves to be here. ASU has the best offense out of the 8 play-in teams, however Syracuse might have the best defense of the 8 play in teams. Both teams have not played well vs the number all season, and that shows in their sub single digit MOE ratings. The big indicator here is in the possessions per game, ASU has on average 7.5 more possessions per game than Syracuse. This is mostly because of Syracuse's defense and their ability to slow the pace down to a crawl. However, the shooting of ASU is what's going to set the two apart. ASU shoots +4.5% better overall than the Orange and scores 16pts on average more than Syracuse per game. ASU has the offensive ability to break through Syracuse' defense and put up big numbers. This -1.5 line is a gift in my opinion. Take the Sun Devils.
ROUND ONE
West - (1) Xavier vs (16) Texas Southern
NET EFF Rating
MOE Rating
PXSP Rating
PPG Rating
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Xavier
Xavier outmatches TXSO in every statistical facet of the game. However, TXSO has a far better margin of expectation rating than Xavier. So don't count TXSO ATS out if that spread is in the double digits. Xavier shoots far better overall than TXSO with just as many possessions per game. That is a huge indicator that this game is going to be one sided. Take Xavier.
East - (1) Villanova vs (16) LIU-Brooklyn
NET EFF Rating
MOE Rating
PXSP Rating
PPG Rating
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Villanova
Villanova is going to eat Radford alive here.
East - (6) Florida vs (11) St. Bonaventure
NET EFF Rating
MOE Rating
PXSP Rating
PPG Rating
Math Man's Bracket Pick: St. Bonaventure
This is a match made in heaven for the Bonnies. Florida is a top 25 team simply because of their elite defense. However, unfortunately for Florida - St. Bonaventure has defensive numbers that can shine a light to the Gators. The bonnies also wield a better than average offense, and in my opinion - an offense that is slightly better than Florida. The Bonnie's shoot better than Florida with 2 more avg possessions per game, St. Bon also edges the Gators in avg points per game and has a slightly better pace factor than Florida. It also can't be ignored that Florida has a sub par margin of expectation against the spread. The bonnies; however cover the spread by an average 2.1 points. There is big value on the Bonnies. The first underdog pick of the tournament.
MidWest - (6) TCU vs (11) Arizona St.
NET EFF Rating
MOE Rating
PXSP Rating
PPG Rating
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Arizona St
This one may possibly have upset written all over it as well. ASU matches up very well with TCU on offense and defense. Both teams have struggled against the number this season, but both are in the positive with ASU having a 0.2 better margin of expectation than TCU. TCU shoots about 3% better than ASU and in one less possession per game. This game is going to be a shootout and I am backing the Sun Devils here. Take the Sun Devils as a live dog vs the Horned Frogs.
Thursday March 15th - Round One
MidWest - (10) Oklahoma vs (7) Rhode Island
NET EFF Rating
MOE Rating
PXSP Rating
PPG Rating
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Rhode Island
This one is a head scratcher. Oklahoma has a world class offense, but lacks severely in defense. URI has a better than average offense and has one of the best defense games in the country. Oklahoma has had a tough time against the number, URI holds a 2.7pt margin of expectation lead over Oklahoma, both teams are in the red on average ATS. This is the decider for me - Rhode Island shoots almost the same shooting percentage as Oklahoma, but in 8 less possessions per game than them. That factor tied into the fact that Oklahoma is simply outclassed on defense here - makes me obligated to take the Rams. URI moves on.
South - (14) Wright St. vs (3) Tennessee
NET EFF Rating
MOE Rating
PXSP Rating
PPG Rating
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Tennessee
A battle of two defenses here. Both teams have a better than average defense. Both teams have had decent success ATS with respective numbers of +2.1 & +2.2 for margin of expectation. TENN shoots as well if not better than Wright St - with 2 less possessions per game. TENN scores 3pts more per game on average than Wright St. I like Tennessee to move on here, but I will be betting Wright St +12.5
West - (13) NC-Greensboro vs (4) Gonzaga
NET EFF Rating
MOE Rating
PXSP Rating
PPG Rating
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Gonzaga
Everyone is saying that this Gonzaga game in Boise is going to basically be a home game for the Zag. However, as a wise man once told me "Everyone is no one" - and that's exactly how I feel about this game. Spokane Washington is a 6 hour drive from Boise, Idaho - besides a few die-hard fans - no one from the University of Gonzaga is going to want to go to Boise, Idaho for their spring break. It's just not happening. Now that's not to say I don't think Gonzaga is going to win - because they are - but they are not going to run NC Greensboro out of the gym. Greensboro has a respectable defense and a slightly above average offense. They have played good against the number in general this season putting up an average against the spread number of +3.9. If Gonzaga gets pulled into Greensboro's game this is going to be a back and forth close game that will probably see UNC-GB get a lead or two - I suspect Gonzaga to pull through in the end, but the +12.5 is too big. Take Gonzaga on your bracket and take UNC-GB ATS.
MidWest - (16) Pennsylvania vs (1) Kansas
NET EFF Rating
MOE Rating
PXSP Rating
PPG Rating
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Kansas
Home court advantage in play here for Kansas, but it doesn't really mean much either way. U Penn has a better statistical defense than they are given credit for. On paper it is in fact better than Kansas' defense. Although that's about all Penn has on Kansas in this match-up. Kansas shoots 4% better than Penn at 49.8% and with less possessions. Kansas moves on - lean Penn ATS.
MidWest - (15) Iona vs (2) Duke
NET EFF Rating
MOE Rating
PXSP Rating
PPG Rating
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Duke
Short and sweet. Duke wins. They have possibly the best NET EFF rating in the tournament. They could win the whole thing. They have an elite offense and impeccable defense. They have played well ATS all season. However this line may be too high. Iona can compete and are not a slouch on the offensive end. Duke moves on - Iona covers.
Part 2 of the Math Man's NCAA Tournament Handicap - Tomorrow.
Until then - here is the Math Man's bracket.
Math Man's NET EFF Power Rating - Round 1
Math Man's Bonus Future Play