Sleepy's Mountain West Conference Preview & Projections
As most of you know I'm knee deep in college hoops...It's my favorite sport to handicap and the sport I feel offers the most value to making money. I handicap every conference, but really like the west coast conferences most of all. I think those markets are the least attacked and the least looked at. That creates big value for bettors much like ourselves. I'll share some of my work for some of the western conferences over the next month. Basically a team preview and projection for this season. Below you will find one of my plays from last year. That is the work you get with my CBB work. Ask anyone who purchased my CBB plays last year, I didn't half ass one single handicap last year. I made that promise to my guys last year and i believe i held up my promise. My plays are jam packed with info and it gives us the best chance to make money during the CBB season. Any questions feel free to reach out, I cover just about every single conference in CBB. I consider myself one of the best CBB handicappers in the country and I'll continue to work hard to back up my claim. Best of luck this season.
Mountain West Projections / #1 thru #11
#1. Wyoming
#2. Nevada
#3. UNLV
#4. San Diego St.
#5. Fresno St.
#6. Boise St.
#7. Utah St.
#8. Colorado St.
#9. Air Force
#10. San Jose St.
#11. New Mexico
This was one of the hardest projections I had to do in years for this conference. So many moving parts with this conference and many teams at the top and even in the middle have a shot...Overall I feel this conference is 50/50 with 6 teams all being competitive and 5 teams being bottom feeders...I would say the Mountain West was one of the busiest conferences in the off season with roster moves, coaching moves and everything else in between. Usually I'm very confident of my rankings and I am again this year, but this conference is going to have a few surprises for sure. I think my rankings are very strong though with all the work and information I've gathered for the 2017-2018 season...Just a brief write-up for this conference for you to check out.
Let's build from the bottom up.....
#11. New Mexico...This is the disaster team of the conference by far. The best player on the team in Elijah Brown has taken off for Oregon. Tim Williams has graduated and he was right at the top of the scoring chart last season. The scandals that hit this team over the last two years have made headlines around the nation. Basically it's a program that was once rich and respected, but now it's crumbled and in intensive care. Players want no part of this Lobo's team right now and most looked for a way out...Former Head Coach Craig Neal was fired and new HC Paul Weir steps in. You can only find one positive for this team heading into this season. They have some good players coming in, but some can't play because of college transfer rules. It's a band-aid type of season while the rebuild is in motion. Only thing the Lobo's can hope for is a positive season without any further issues. Hopefully they can hold onto the good players they have in waiting for next season. Season projection / 9-21
#10. San Jose St...The head coach resigned and they lost Brandon Clarke who was the teams best player and leading scorer. He moved on to Gonzaga and that leaves a massive hole to fill in for the Spartans. New HC Jean Prioleau takes over with a very young team. A ton of freshman on this team this year that might be good in a few years. Spartans are now asking Welage and James to step up big for the Spartans. The depth of this team is very shy and those two players rally lack star power. Welage will be asked to do everything which will draw multiple defenders his way. It's a one man team in my eyes and that's never a good recipe for a successful season. I'm not even sure what the future looks like for this team right now, but they should be happy they don't have all the issues the Lobo's have. Season Projection / 11-18
#9. Air Force...Not much was expected of them last year and the same has been said for this year. I disagree however with many people who have this team finishing last in the conference. In my opinion team that have a ton of depth and seniors on this team. That always makes for a competitive ball club. They are shy on talent, but with depth and seniors they are not...A very good chance this team starts 5 seniors, but I see them starting 4 and no less. That's huge for a team in my eyes. Problem is the players they have aren't all that special. Falcons bring back Jacob Van and Frank Toohey...Toohey is probably the best player on the team, so I expect to see his numbers increase this year from last. Pretty much the entire starting lineup for the Falcons has seen a decent amount of minutes and have played together over the last few years. That will pay dividends and they will avoid finishing last in the conference. Defense was the big issue for them last year, but this year with a slight improvement will prove my projection to be more correct than most. They have the roster to step up for them on that end for sure. Air Force has the biggest roster to pick from in the entire conference and that's always a huge benefit. Season projection / 12-18
#8. Colorado St...I feel the biggest decline in the conference starts with the Rams...Colorado St lost two of the best players on the team and replacing almost 35ppg will be tough..They bring back 3 returning starters and they had some decent transfer moves along with some young talent that inked up this season...They lost the best player in the conference in Gian Clavell and that alone will cost them wins. I don't see anyone on this roster that can make up for him. Rams also lose a big guy who did all the dirty work in Omogbo. Colorado St had one of the better inside outside games going in the nation last year with these two guys on the court together. That's all gone for this year and it's almost a rebuild and hope and pray season. Tough to pin your hopes on a bunch of question marks. They have talent, but I'm not sure it's enough to get them into the lesser tournaments this year. The non-conf schedule will be tough this season also. Season Projection /13-18
#7. Utah St...It's tough to put this team at the bottom of the pile, but they can finish in that area if they don't improve in a few areas. This is a guard driven team and that alone hurts them on the defensive end and on the boards. They already lack length and depth now which is a problem. They also lost the teams Center which only hurts them furthermore. Big help for this team however is returning two big scorers in McEwen and Merrill...Those two alone can keep you in games and they also added (2) juco transfers that avg double digit ppg....The guys they need to step in for relief are young and unproven. I think they get crushed on the glass and those two things will add up for losses for the Aggies. They will need to run and gun and outscore teams to win games. They can do it, but it won't last against a team with a decent defense and rebounding numbers. They will come out of the gate looking good, but they will hit a buzzsaw at some point..They will win the games they are supposed too. They will lose the games that are 50/50 and the games against much better teams. Season projection /14-17
#6. Boise St....I like HC Leon Rice...He has done well over the years with the Broncos..Always keeps his guys on board and looks to improve each and every year. Boise St has had some good years under him. I think they have another good year once again. Boise St brings back one of the best players in the conference in Hutchinson..His ability to shoot and score gives defenses all kinds of issues. Boise has good depth and some other decent players as well which provide room for Hutchinson...Boise St lost some talented players, so they need to get these guys to fill in quick. Rice should be able to rally the troops and get the younger guys in the mix who have talent..I just hope the new guys can get Hutchinson the ball....Boise St stunk last year in a few areas. The assist to turnover ration stunk. They ranked very low in the entire country in assists alone. They came in below average or average at best in rebounds and points allowed per game. Boise can fix those areas, but it's not really known beforehand if it's actually fixed. This is a team that can move up or down with those areas of concern. If they fix that up and the talent gels together before conference play starts, they have a good chance to be in top 4 teams...If they don't fix things up they could be mid pack. I question the 2nd wave depth for them as well. Boise is a bit of a mystery team but winning less than 18 games looks to be tough with this roster. Season Projection / 19-9
#5. Fresno St...I liked Fresno last year and I like them again this year..I see no reason not to like this team. I've seen split opinions on this team as to where they might finish. I figure this is the correct spot for them though...Asking Fresno to win 20 games with this roster isn't asking much...Head coach Rodney Terry doesn't take any crap. He expects his players to execute pretty much every trip up and down the floor. A strong HC in my eyes..He gets the best out of his players and that's been pretty easy to see over the last few years if you watched the Bulldogs play under him...Fresno St has a deep team as far as talent...They also have one of the most mature teams in the conference. I like what coach Terry did though..He had 5 guys that are all quality starters. He brought in two more sure fire starters also..It creates more competition and it creates guys to do what they are supposed too...They needed to fix up a few areas and it was really just the Bulldogs playing a slow grinding back and forth type of game. They didn't score what they could've, but this season I think that changes a bit. I could see teams trying to catch them rather than exchanging baskets with Fresno St. Overall I like this team and everything about it, just not enough to put them at the top of the conference in any category stat wise. Which leads me to dropping them down a few ticks. Season Projection / 21-9
#4. San Diego St...I think everyone has this team too high...Look I like the Aztecs overall, just not enough to put them in the top 3...I see issues with this team and scoring on offense is one of them...They can grind down teams all they want, but if you can't score enough for an entire season it wears you down. I thought Malik Pope was a sure fire NBA guy..I might be right on that, but I expected him to be gone by now..That's not the case as he has played second fiddle to other guys on the team..Can't blame him for taking a back seat though with guys like Trey Kell on the team...San Diego St, is deep and they brought in a highly touted transfer from San Francisco in Devin Watson...Big issue for the Aztecs was scoring,rebounding and assists..They hope that Watson can fix some of that...I think he can and this San Diego St team looks to be a 4 headed monster...In the past I had this team at the top and they flaked out on me. In the past I thought they would dominate on defense and they did, but the offense always seemed to be bogged down. My biggest concerns for this year are the two areas I value the most. Assists and rebounding..They need to fix those areas and they will compete for the top. I just gotta see it first. I think they can do it, but without legend HC Steve Fischer on the sideline, it's not going to be easy to keep this kids locked in for every game in those areas. Dutcher takes over and he is a good coach from what I've read..He was the assistant under Fisher, so not much will change except the pace of the offense. Good season, how good depends on everyone. Season Projection 20-7
#3...UNLV...Talk about a huge turn around for the Running Rebels...This team finished dead last in 2017 and they didn't go into the off season with great expectations...Well HC Marvin Menzies put together one of the best off seasons a team could ask for...When you look at the recruiting classes for this year, this UNLV team is near the top with the Kentucky's and Duke's of the world...The Rebels landed top 20 recruit in Brandon McCoy....This kid is everything that has been advertised and more. It's not going to be a shock if he is a one and done this season..Along side Mccoy the Rebels also secured one of the top point guards in the nation with a transfer from Milwaukee in Shakur Juiston...This kid is a big scorer and a great ball distributor..Rebels are bringing back top scorer from last year Jovan Mooring and that's a big help as well....The Running Rebels could quadruple the production they got from last years team. It might take some time for this team to gel, but they look very good and talented on paper. Big issue for the Rebels last year was the defensive side of the ball...Don't be shocked if this team leads the MWC in blocked shots and rebounds. Plus the new addition of guards should keep things in check at the top of the key. This could be one of the best teams and they might even have enough to win this conference. Sounds crazy to say looking at what they did last year, but this team did a complete 180 and has one of the most talented rosters right now. Do we believe the hype?...Well the smarts of the world say it's going to be tough for this team not to be good, but I've bought into the hype many times before like we all have and it never panned out..I have faith in the Rebels rebounding, but I'm not sure with this current roster they can win it all. I hope they prove me wrong though. Season Projection / 22-8
#2. Nevada...This is the team that I'm not really sure about...While I think the Wolfpack finish in the top 5, I'm going out on a slight limb saying they'll finish this high..I certainly think it's possible, but it's the one team I could be the most off on with my projections...Nevada loses two big scorers from last year's team. The departure of Marshall, Oliver and Fenner will be felt, but I'm not certain it will be as drastic as some are saying. Nevada still brings back a decent amount from the team that took them to the NCAA Tournament. That's a good thing and should be noted. Nevada also transferred in some good PG's to help run the offense and make up for points lost with Marshall and Fenner..I'm not certain they will account for that production, but they can win in other areas and make ends meet...The Wolfpack has depth at every spot but the PG spot as far as production..Nevada has PG's to rotate in and out, but they need production from them..I won't be shocked if Nevada sticks with a big lineup and tries to just run a 1 guard offense at times..The other spots are filled and should be deep with talent to make up for the loss at PG...Overall this team will be very good once again and rather solid. A very athletic team and the key players on this team will be Jordan Caroline and Foster...If these two play at a level like they did last year or even higher, the Wolfpack will be a threat once again. Season Projection / 23-9
#1. Wyoming...I find the Cowboys to be the deepest and most rounded out team...The one issue they have is on the defensive side of the ball. They allowed close to 75ppg last year and that alone won't cut it. They did however score almost 78ppg and that by itself is enough to win most nights...They bring back basically the entire team and the teams two leading scorers..They brought in a few other pieces via transfer and through the recruiting class...Playing in Laramie is no joke and it's top on my list for home court advantage..I give 8.5 points to the Cowboys..That's tops on my list...They only dropped 3 games last year at home and finished with an impressive 23-15 overall record..They won the NIT and that alone tells me they can compete with many other out of conference teams. They have one goal in mind this year..Win the conference and make the big dance..I think they can do it and if they fix up the defensive side of the ball, I don't see how they don't win close to 25 games...They got a ton of home games this year and they got all the talent they need...Justin James is the key player on offense, but every guy on the starting team can score and contribute. If the Cowboys can battle down low and stop teams from scoring 75ppg, I'll be right on the money with this team. They are well rounded and it will take a big injury or two to derail this team. I don't see it happening because of the depth they have as well..Season ending injury to one of the best players is the only thing that stops them...They will be favored in 70% of the games this season. Season Projection / 24-5
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