I'd like to start out this handicap with a brief disclaimer......First off basketball is my favorite sport to handicap and I believe it's the easiest sport to make money in...I'll argue that with anyone....Basketball season officially starts for me today....I have made plays as you guys have seen, but now with the bowls and NFL coming to a quick end, I'm knee deep in basketball....I want to make a promise to all my clients from the past, current and future....I will give you guys 110% this year until both the NBA & CBB seasons are over....You won't get any half-ass handicaps and if you see a handicap that doesn't live up to what you expect..Call me out in the forum or message me and say something.....When I first started here I really valued my basketball handicapping. I honestly believe I'm one of the better handicappers in basketball in the country...I say that with all seriousness...You guys pay for plays, but also for information...So I want to provide the best information in a handicap that you can use today and down the road....In all sports, but basketball especially I go on big runs...I really believe most of it comes to my deep handicapping of the games..You will see below why.....If anyone ever wants info on any game..Message me..I'm always around...I don't care if you guys are looking for information on a Mercer vs. Samford game or Gard-Webb vs Longwood...I have papers and papers of information on my desk at all times...Get as much info out of me as you can..Thank you in advance and let's kick some ass....Now on to the handicap.
We will be playing on CSUN tonight....I see many angles in this game and a bunch of them are coming from the stats area......My number for this game was PK.....So getting +6.5 is great value...I won't be surprised if CSUN wins outright either....CSUN is the better offensive team here by a decent margin..
PPG +8
Assists +2
Rebounds +.5
Turnovers +1.5
FG % + 4.5
Obviously your basic numbers, but these numbers in specific really tell the tale of a team on offense...It's not every day you see a dog getting these numbers....Raw number here of +16.5....That's rather significant....Long Beach loses by a few ticks in every area on the offensive end...That's red flag #1 for me....#2...It's Long Beach....When is the last time CSUN really had a team...Most of us know that Long Beach has had some good teams and would be the bigger named school....So I feel this number is wrong and inflated due to that as well.
Both of these teams have about the same record...CSUN 6-9 & LBC 6-12.....Here is a strong point with those records...CSUN is 2-0 in conf...That helps them as far as mental streak goes......LBC had a brutal schedule this year...I mean you wanna talk about a non-conf schedule nightmare these guys had to deal with it....They lost 9 straight games and that alone really seemed to take a toll on them...They expected coming into this season to be a little better, but they literally got beat down already this season...I worry about how focused they are week in and week out...CSUN was a team who would improve from last year and I was sure of it...CSUN last year only went 10-20....A young team, but had talent...So the upside and motivation to get better for them is a bit higher between the two.
REVENGE !!!!.....CSUN hasn't beaten LBC in 2 years...0-4 against them and the LBC teams that beat them really had the upper hand...So we got quadruple revenge here in a game I think we have the better team...Situation wise that's a big plus for us tonight...Plus LBC goes to Hawaii for the next game...Might they be looking ahead to a nice long break...They do have 2 days off before and a full 4 days off after Hawaii...They might be thinking about relaxing and partying with that kind of gap.
CSUN has now won 3 games in a row and the last two in conference...I'm sure they would like to keep that streak going and the 3 wins all came by 5 point margins or greater...They also beat Fullerton on the road which has to give them great confidence here..
On the defensive side of the ball I still favor CSUN....It's a little close on defense than offense, but CSUN wins a few key areas.
Steals +.5
Blocks +1
FG % +4
Def Rbs +1
Not much, but enough to really break even....LBC has the advantage with defppg +1 and fouls +1....That's nothing impressive.
LBC has a major issue here though tonight and that's the 3pt line.....CSUN is very good 3pt shooting team.....They rank 88th in the nation, while LBC defends the 3pt line at #332...Yes 332nd in the nation defending the 3pt shot.....That's a massive gap to give a road team...So at any point in the game CSUN could be raining 3's catching up or extending a lead....So the defensive stats I touched are are starting to tilt in our favor as I stated...
LBC isn't very good at shooting the 3ball either.....They rank #285....Now CSUN has issues guarding the 3 ball as well, but if LBC can't shoot or guard the 3ball at all, that's a major part of the game of basketball !!.....Clear advantage for CSUN.
A few other stats that I like to use.
Assist to TO Ratio.....Well LBC ranks a horrible #307......Remember guys we only have a grand total of 347 teams......CSUN ranks #185.....That's like half the nation almost...That's a big difference also in our favor.....
FG% is another area...How good do we actually shoot now that we have had a bunch of home and road games.....Well CSUN is very good at #60th in the nation.....LBC...#275 !!!.....Again, a lopsided stat.....These all mean something at the end of the day...Trust me.
Free throw % is in favor of LBC, but it's not a wide gap...A percent or two, but it should be noted and for information purposes for you guys down the road.....CSUN 69.7% #169 & LBC 72.6% #88............My rule of thumb is a team that shoots 64% or lower is a red flag when looking FT shooting unless the team they are facing is like tops in the nation....Which is Notre Dame at 84%.....At that point Free Throw shooting should be a strong handicap.
Final few pieces....CSUN has done a much better job not turning the ball over..Hence why they have won 3 games now in a row...But single digit turnovers and 5 or 6 TO's under the avg is a telling sign that this team is going and getting better...Obviously I look at other areas, but I see growth in certain areas right now....LBC on the other has been hitting the avg's in that area.
***Injury Note - Long Beach - Gabe Levin - OUT.....This is a big loss for them for 3rd game now.
So to sum up this game...Quadruple revenge....We win like 75%-80% of the stats line....Big advantages at the 3pt line and the FG% line of both sides of the ball.
Let me close with this,.. LBC is a very undersized team...They have guys that are playing big minutes that will not win the rebounding area...CSUN has a few athletic towers on this team at 6-11 and 7'0...We are the much taller team and our defense is better...You guys add it up....I couldn't even try to make a case for LBC to win this game on the ML.....Win or lose tonight, this is the work I will provide and it will transfer to big runs and you will see that....Thanks and best of luck.