And a decent 8-3 weekend with a couple of undisciplined mistakes. The free play will be here:
Dave's Long Term Packages
969 TOR (+100) SportsInterAction vs 970 PHI |
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Analysis: Toronto is simply one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball, second only to Colorado in runs scored in the last week. The Phillies simply aren't hitting, and with all the rainouts have only PLAYED four games in the last week, or not enough to keep momentum going, and it's momentum they didn't have anyways. They've scored 14 runs in the last week, and are hitting only .231. This is one of those "what have you done lately" plays, because I do know that Happ comes off the DL (perhaps rested with a chance to get a starting spot back) and that Kendrick throws strikes and doesn't walk many. But, the Phillies are 2-3 in his starts, and in his two home starts his ERA is 4.91 and his WHIP is 1.81. Toronto on the road has scored the fourth most runs in MLB, while the Phillies at home, in 13 games, have scored 44 runs. Yes, I do know there's no DH, but Toronto will start Edwin at first, and there's no Jimmy Rollins at short, who had been hitting well recently. So, if Happ gets by Marlon Byrd and the fifth inning, the Jays simply have the better hitters, especially off the bench. Happ at this price against one of his old teams and a fifteenth chance to prove himself, I gotta do it, especially with the total coming down, which I do not agree with at this point.
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Washington-Dodgers: Two teams off tough losses and probably not super-confident, and Washington come home from Philly after a wasted effort by Gio. Because the Dodgers have had their way with Grienke, I lean to the Dodgers, and if that total comes down and the weather cooperates, I do think both teams get some.
Pirates-Giants: Two teams going in opposite directions right now, and Jeff Locke may have had his moment in the sun early last season. His AAA stats this year suck, the Pirates pen is bad and without Grilli, and Cain has handled the Pirates well. That means the Giants should win but if only they were all that easy. Need Giants lineup after big Atlanta series. Now it looks like a pitching change. Either Cain's thumb isn't cool or the Pirates decided to go with Wandy if his knee in fine, so refresh on this one. I only edited it so some a-hole wouldn't "remind" me tomorrow :)
Cardinals-Braves: St. Louis probably gets to Atlanta sometime well after midnight after playing the Sunday night game, and the Braves just can't hit the long ball right now. Obviously need to wait for STL lineup, but both Harang AND Miller have regressed. I still have to lean Braves at that price at home, and maybe the over.
Mets-Fish: There are lots of angles here. Mets flying from no-air and winning to South Florida and a team that's winning. Niese has been a freak, BUT, the Marlins have hammered him. It's not as warm in Ft. Lauderdale as it usually is, so there's a slight chance the roof might be open, because I do lean to the over a little. Because everyone will be on the Fish, and they aren't always that easy, I may take the Mets RL.
Arizona-Brewers: Nice win for us Sunday fading the D-Backs and their bullpen, and of course w/Garza you'd think that the Brewers would be an auto play, which is why I might look at the D-Backs RL. They've hit Garza some, and coming home after a tough loss to the Reds isn't a happy place for them to be. Over would be far to easy as well, I think.
Cleveland-Twins: The Indians have fallen on hard times and the Twins may not be the answer to their problems. McAllsiter just isn't a -160 pitcher and Gibson's stock has obviously dropped, but he does have some talent. No chance of the Indians here. Twins or Twins RL, probably.
Houston-Detroit: If the total is only 7.5 here, do the really expect this to be a 6-1 or so win by the Tigers? Interesting. Let's see who rests for the Tigers and who doesn't. ONE game at +245 or probably + for the RL I wouldn't consider taking the Tigers RL unless that total goes up. Need to check the weather there.
Oakland-Seattle: This one may not be as easy as it looks. Maybe it is, but the wind is supposed to be blowing out hard, so if you like over, it won't close at 7 IMO. Young does have SOME potential and the Mariners started hitting, so maybe after the A's fly cross country I could consider the M's RL.
Yankees-Angels: A little surprised Weaver is only -175 or so, really. Yankees play like sh*t and fly cross country to a team that's hitting with their best pitcher on the mound. Something just doesn't look right. This is almost one that I'd just play the ML on because Phelps isn't going to pitch deep. Maybe the over, too. Let's see lineups.
Toronto-Phillies: JA Happ is going against one of his old teams here, which is always a good spot. And of course Kendrick has been terrible. Since everyone now assumes the Phillies can't hit, they may well do that. Toronto of course has not DH so that could mean Jays bullpen sooner rather than later. Phillies isn't a ton better, so if it (the total) went to 8.5 I might consider the over.
I like the last few games quite a bit, and will (maybe) add them tomorrow. Catching an early flight home. Thanks to the new long term people, too.