For what it’s worth, yesterday was not a good day for me. It would’ve been OK, but for those damned Yankees. I mostly avoided the Yankees early because I didn’t like their starting pitching, other than Gerritt Cole, of course. I was very surprised that their management didn’t do much to upgrade the starting rotation. Yeah, they signed Marcus Stroman and he was coming off a good season for the Cubs, but I never considered him to be an impact player, not back when he was with the Blue Jays and not now either. The offense was improved with the addition of Juan Soto and the bullpen was expected to be solid again, but the starting rotation was troubling and it still is. The bottom line is that I most avoided them, but they got off to a fast start and even this morning, they are just percentage points behind the Orioles in the tough AL East. I started to believe they just might be better than I thought.
I watched the Yanks last night and what I saw disgusted me. At the outset, I would have said that the Yanks were easiky my safest play. Then I saw Nick Allen and Tyler Nevin hit HRs in the 3rd off Nestor Cortes to give the A’s a 3-1 lead. No problem I thought. The Yanks will easily overcome that. They never did. I saw that piece of garbage Alex Wood escape a bases-loaded no-out jam in the 1st and a bases-loaded one-out jam in the 4th. I saw virtually nothing from the Yanks offense from that point on. How is that even possible? Hell, I was convinced that the Yanks had traded places with the White Sox last night. They went just 1 for 7 with runners in scoring position and stranded 11 runners. They lost this game, a game that they never should lose, despite outhitting the A’s 11-6. It makes absolutely no sense, but that’s how it went. That one game created more than a 24-unit swing. I went from being up about 11 units to being down about 13.
The Yanks weren’t my only loser for the day. The Brewers blew a 4-3 lead going onto the bottom of the 5th to lose a 1st that should have cashed, as Brewers ace Freddy Peralta who had been solid all seaswon, suddenly wasn’t yesterday. While the Nats’ MacKenzie Gore pitched well for the Nats, giving up just one run, the Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto was better, giving up 0 for another 1st 5 loss.
I also had a few winners. The Brewers came back from that 5-4 1st 5 deficit to win the full game 7-5. The Phils jumped all over Nick Martinez for four runs in the 3rd and Zack Wheeler was brilliant, tossing 6 shutout innings of 1-hit ball, while striking out 8 as the Phils romped to an easy 5-0 win. The Astros gave Justin Verlander an early 1-0 lead on a 1st inning Yordan Alvarez solo HR and Verlander tossed 4.1 shutout innings to cash a 1st 5 bet, in a game the Astros would end up losing 3-1. The Mariners cored two in the top of the 5th to cash another 1st 5 behind a strong outing from Luis Castillo in a 4-3 win over the Rangers.
Unfortunately, the Phils 1st 5 and full game wins ended up not counting for anything because I parlayed them with the Brewers 1st 5 and the Yank 1st 5 and full game. I finished the day a dismal -13.10 units, leaving me just +5.32 units for the season. I just can’t seem to stay consistent. Hopefully thaty will change and I hope it starts today
Today is a new day and the MLB season i still very young, so there’s plenty of time left to straighten this all out. We have a full slate of games today and there are a few that I like, so let’s get to it. Here’s my card.
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
-101
|
2
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
ATL ML
|
106
|
2
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
-106
|
2
|
|
BALT 1st 5 ML
|
TB ML
|
106
|
2
|
|
BALT ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
103
|
2
|
|
BALT ML
|
ATL ML
|
104
|
2
|
|
BALT ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
-108
|
2
|
|
BALT ML
|
TB ML
|
103
|
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
113
|
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
TB ML
|
125
|
|
|
ATL ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
120
|
2
|
|
ATL ML
|
TB ML
|
132
|
2
|
Sides
|
|
|
|
|
|
NYM 1st 5 RL
|
100
|
|
2
|
|
NYM ML
|
-107
|
|
2
|
|
ARIZ 1st 5 ML
|
-125
|
|
2
|
|
ARIZ ML
|
-128
|
|
2
|
\Here’s how I see things shaking out tonight.
OAK @ BALT
The 10-16 A’s finally beat the Yankees last night 3-1 to salvage the final game of their three-game series at Yankee Stadium. The 16-9 Orioles had the day off, after retuning for a six-game road trip in which they sept the Royals and took two of three from the Angels.
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP
|
GS +
|
(8/32)
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
OAK
|
Stripling - R
|
(2/5)
|
(3/5)
|
1.57
|
5.34
|
3.88
|
3.36
|
3.89
|
4.31
|
0.368
|
0.316
|
17.6%
|
6.4%
|
BALT
|
Burnes
|
(4/5)
|
(1/5)
|
0.82
|
2.76
|
2.76
|
3.46
|
3.04
|
3.13
|
0.260
|
0.269
|
25.4%
|
4.4%
|
Edge – BALT
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
OAK
|
5
|
3
|
6
|
4
|
74.2%
|
10
|
0.41
|
8
|
1.18
|
10
|
3.04
|
8
|
24.2%
|
9
|
8.1%
|
3
|
BALT
|
7
|
2
|
7
|
5
|
66.0%
|
24
|
0.53
|
17
|
1.19
|
11
|
4.12
|
18
|
27.3%
|
4
|
8.1%
|
3
|
Edge – OAK
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
OAK
|
2.84
|
29
|
0.278
|
28
|
84
|
26
|
0.139
|
17
|
8.3%
|
21
|
-4.3
|
30
|
45.2%
|
1
|
7.7%
|
9
|
27.8%
|
1
|
BALT
|
5.67
|
3
|
0.343
|
3
|
127
|
2
|
0.199
|
1
|
7.2%
|
26
|
4.3
|
2
|
37.7%
|
21
|
9.6%
|
1
|
20.9%
|
21
|
Edge - BALT
Conclusion: For me this one is a no-brainer. The A’s did last night, but that was more about the Yanks beating themselves. The Orioles are the much better hitting team. They score almost three runs more per game with a 65 point higher wOBA and a 43 point better wRC+. Surprisingly the A’s bullpen has actually performed better than the O’s pen has. They have produced a better strand rate, allowed fewer runs per inning pitched and have the better ERA. As fir the two starting pitchers, Corbin Burnes has simply been much better than Ross Stripling with 4 above average starts as opposed to Stripling to. He also has the much better statistical profile across the board. The Orioles are simply a lot better than the A’s.
Pick – BALT 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
STL @ NYM
The 11-14 Cards, after taking two of three from the Diamondbacks, had the day off to travel to Queens to face the 13-11 Mets who return from a seven game road trip after splitting four games with the Dodgers and then droppig two of three to the Giants.
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
STL
|
Mikolas - R
|
(2/5)
|
(3/5)
|
1.52
|
4.78
|
5.44
|
4.27
|
4.76
|
4.28
|
0.386
|
0.377
|
17.2%
|
6.0%
|
NYM
|
Butto - R
|
(2/3)
|
(1/3)
|
1.04
|
1.65
|
3.50
|
2.60
|
3.61
|
3.63
|
0.250
|
0.301
|
31.8%
|
13.6%
|
Edge – NYM
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
STL
|
4
|
4
|
8
|
2
|
72.2%
|
15
|
0.47
|
12
|
1.27
|
16
|
3.77
|
14
|
26.2%
|
5
|
8.1%
|
3
|
NYM
|
9
|
3
|
7
|
3
|
69.1%
|
18
|
0.44
|
11
|
1.16vete
|
9
|
2.95
|
7
|
29.4%
|
2
|
10.5%
|
19
|
Edge – NYM, but close
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
STL
|
3.48
|
27
|
0.289
|
27
|
84
|
26
|
0.117
|
27
|
9.2%
|
12
|
0.3
|
14
|
39.1%
|
16
|
5.9%
|
24
|
22.1%
|
16
|
NYM
|
4.71
|
10
|
0.321
|
10
|
106
|
12
|
0.139
|
17
|
9.0%
|
14
|
-1.1
|
22
|
36.0%
|
25
|
6.5%
|
18
|
19.1%
|
26
|
Edge – NYM
Conclusion: The Mets have surprised me this season. I didn’t expect them to be as good as they apparently are, while the Cards are pretty much what I expected them to be. The Mets are the better hitting team They average more than a full run more than the Cards with a 32-point better wOBA and a 22-point better wRC+. The two bullpens are pretty evenly matched. The Mets’ pen has allowed fewer runs per inning pitched with a better WHIP and ERA, as well as a higher K rate, so I gave them a slight edge, but the margins are small. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. Jose Butto is off a shaky outing in is last start, giving up 2 runs on 3 hits and 5 walks over 4,1 innings, but his two previous outings were both quality starts. By contrast veteran Mile Mikolas has struggled this season producing more below average starts than above average ones. With the exception of a much higher walk rate, Butto’s statistical profile is much better than Mikolas. Mikolas is more of a pitch to ocntact type guy and the Mets should be able to get to him. That said I don’t trust Butto or the Mets enough to use them on my parlay card, so…
Pick – NYM 1st 5 RL and full game ML in side bets
CLEV @ ATL
The 18-7 Guardians hit the road and head down to Georgia to face the 17-6 Braves. In their six-game homestand, the Guardians dropped two of three to the Red Sox, but won the series finale last night 6-4, after sweeping the A’s. The Braves, who had the day off ae in the final stretch of a nine-game homestand, after taking two of three from the Rangers and then sweeping the Marlins.
Starting Pitchers
7:40
|
R
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
TB
|
Eflin – R
|
(3/5)
|
(2/5)
|
1.06
|
3.68
|
2.78
|
3.45
|
3.27
|
3.30
|
0.300
|
0.270
|
21.8%
|
1.7%
|
CHI WS
|
Flexen - R
|
(0/3)
|
(3/3)
|
1.42
|
6.41
|
5.79
|
5.73
|
5.41
|
5.20
|
0.359
|
0.376
|
12.9%
|
8.2%
|
Edge – ATL
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
CLEV
|
8
|
2
|
9
|
3
|
78.0%
|
6
|
0.29
|
1
|
1.03
|
1
|
2.31
|
2
|
29.3%
|
3
|
8.4%
|
7
|
ATL
|
8
|
3
|
8
|
3
|
75.0%
|
7
|
0.42
|
9
|
1.15
|
8
|
3.36
|
10
|
22.6%
|
16
|
6.9%
|
1
|
Edge – CLEV
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
CLEV
|
5.26
|
4
|
0.319
|
11
|
111
|
6
|
0.150
|
9
|
7.0%
|
28
|
1.0
|
9
|
37.1%
|
13
|
5.7%
|
28
|
19.7%
|
23
|
ATL
|
5.96
|
1
|
0.363
|
1
|
128
|
1
|
0.184
|
2
|
8.9%
|
15
|
1.5
|
6
|
37.9%
|
20
|
9.0%
|
2
|
21.5%
|
20
|
Edge – ATL
Conclusion: Last season, the Guardians big problem is that they just couldn’t hit. So fr this season that hasn’t been an issue. The Guardians have suddenly morphed into a very good hitting team. The problem here is that as good as the Guardians have hit, the Braves have hit better. The rank 1st in runs per game, wOBA, wRC+and 2nd in ISO and barrel rate. The Braves have a solid bullpen, but so far the Guardians per has been exceptional, ranking 1st in runs allowed per inning pitched and WHIP, 2nd in ERA, 3rd in K rate, and 6th in strand rate. That brings us to the two starting pitchers, The Guardians will start Logan Allen, who has struggled so far this season with four of his fiveHis Whio starts grading as below average. His WHIP and ERA are both high and his ERA metrics aren’t much better. Allen’s K rate is pedestrian and his walk rate is too high for a guy who’s not missing many bats. The Braves to a shot on 35-year old Chris Sale and he’s rewarded them so far with three of his four starts grading as above average. Sales WHIP is good and while his ERA is mediocre, his ERA metrics are mostly a full run or more lower. Sale is striking out more than a batter per inning and he's got a decent walk rate. Sle’s statistical profile is simply much better than Allen’s. I think that the Braves are better than the Guardians and I know that Sale is better than Allen. That’s how I’m betting it.
Pick – ATL 1st 5 and full game ML in a series of parlays.
TB @ CHI WS
The Rays had yesterday off and after dropping two of three to the Tigers in Detroit, the 13-13 Rays head to the “Windy City to take on the 3-22 Whitee Sox, the worst team in baseball.
Starting Pitchers
7:40
|
R
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
TB
|
Eflin - R
|
(3/5)
|
(2/5)
|
1.06
|
3.68
|
2.78
|
3.45
|
3.27
|
3.30
|
0.300
|
0.270
|
21.8%
|
1.7%
|
CHI WS
|
Flexen - R
|
(0/3)
|
(3/3)
|
1.42
|
6.41
|
5.79
|
5.73
|
5.41
|
5.20
|
0.359
|
0.376
|
12.9%
|
8.2%
|
Edge – TB big
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
TB
|
7
|
5
|
8
|
7
|
65.8%
|
25
|
0.67
|
28
|
1.45
|
25
|
5.31
|
28
|
20.3%
|
24
|
11.6%
|
29
|
CHI WS
|
1
|
8
|
3
|
6
|
70.3%
|
16
|
0.62
|
26
|
1.49
|
26
|
4.28
|
22
|
20.0%
|
25
|
11.4%
|
28
|
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
TB
|
3.96
|
20
|
0.298
|
24
|
99
|
18
|
0.118
|
26
|
6.5%
|
30
|
1.5
|
6
|
39.8%
|
10
|
5.7%
|
28
|
24.5%
|
10
|
CHI WS
|
2.24
|
30
|
0.255
|
30
|
62
|
30
|
0.103
|
30
|
7.9%
|
25
|
-1.9
|
25
|
40.2%
|
7
|
5.1%
|
30
|
25.4%
|
7
|
Edge – TB
Conclusion: The Rays are not a good hitting team. They’re actually a pretty lousy one, but as bad as the Rays have hit, the White Sox have been worse. They currently rant dead last in runs per game, wOBA, wRC+and ISO. That my friends is historically bad. The Rays stink, but they still hit better than the White Sox. Both bullpens are bad and neither can be trusted. Hower, of the two starting pitcher, the Rays should have a big edge with Zach Eflin. Eflin is what I’d call a solid middle to back end of the rotation guy. Chris Flexen, on the other hand, is a house of horrors. He was so bad in his three starts at the beginning of the season, that the worst team in baseball removed him from what was already a terrible rotation. Flexen’s statistical profile is a joke. To be completely honest, I’m just fading the White Sox and Flexen. Doing that will win a lot more than it loses.
Pick – TB 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
ARIZ @ SEA
The 12-14 Diamondbacks are in the final stretch of a ten-game road trip in which they split a four-game series at the Giants and then dropped two of three to the Cards. The 13-12 Mariners return home after a six-game road trip in which they took two of three from the Rockies and the Rangers.
Starting Pitchers
9:40
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
ARIZ
|
Gallen - R
|
(4/5)
|
(1/5)
|
1.30
|
3.00
|
3.55
|
2.73
|
2.95
|
3.12
|
0.313
|
0.303
|
28.1%
|
7.0%
|
SEA
|
Hancock - R
|
(2/4)
|
(2/4)
|
1.26
|
6.10
|
5.32
|
4.93
|
4.15
|
4.14
|
0.340
|
0.363
|
17.7%
|
7.8%
|
Edge -ARIZ
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
ARIZ
|
2
|
8
|
5
|
6
|
65.4%
|
26
|
0.55
|
20
|
1.39
|
23
|
4.19
|
20
|
17.9%
|
30
|
9.3%
|
13
|
SEA
|
2
|
2
|
6
|
1
|
80.0%
|
3
|
0.34
|
5
|
1.03
|
1
|
2.49
|
3
|
24.9%
|
8
|
8.1%
|
3
|
Edge – SEA
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
ARIZ
|
5.73
|
2
|
0.332
|
5
|
109
|
9
|
0.143
|
11
|
9.8%
|
8
|
0.2
|
15
|
34.6%
|
29
|
7.3%
|
13
|
17.9%
|
29
|
SEA
|
3.72
|
24
|
0.302
|
22
|
101
|
15
|
0.126
|
25
|
9.9%
|
7
|
-1.2
|
23
|
44.8%
|
2
|
7.1%
|
14
|
27.4%
|
2
|
Edge – ARIZ
Conclusion: The Mariners are coming off a truly disappoint 2023 season. They were tied with the Ranger for 1st place in the AL West entering September, but went a dismal 11-17 in the final full month of the regular season to end up missing the playoffs by one game. By contrast, the Diamondbacks finished the regular season 16 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West, but that was good enough to sneak into the NL playoffs. They then improbably rolled through the NL playoffs, beating the Brewers 2-0 in the NL Wild Card round, then sweeping the mighty Dodgers in the NLDS and then p by beating the Phillies in seven games in the NLCS before losing to the Rangers in six games in the World Series.
The Diamondbacks should have a clear offensive edge in this one. They are averaging two more runs per game than the Mariners with a 30-point better wOBA and 8-point beter wRC+. However, the Mariners bullpen has been the better unit, allowing fewer runs per inning pitched with a better WHIP, ERSA. Strand rate and K rate. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and that looks like a mismatch. Zac Gallen’s been much better than Emerson Hancock. He has delivered four above average starts in his five outing as compared to Hancock’s two and a quick glance at their respective statistical profiles shows that Gallen has better numbers across the board. Coming ogg an uncharacterically poor outing, I expect a strong out from and I expect the Dbacks to score of few runs and give Gallen a cushion.
Pick – ARIZ 1st 5 and full game MLs in a couple of side bets