Damn! The Brewers blow a 4-3 lead in the bottom of the 5th. Hope the rest of the daay goes better.
Here are my final three games/
SEA @ TEX
The 12-12 Mariners lost 5-2 to the 13-12 Rangers last nght to even this at one game apiece.
Starting Pitchers
2:35
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
SEA
|
Castillo - R
|
(2/5)
|
(3/5)
|
1.36
|
4.40
|
2.86
|
2.53
|
2.69
|
2.76
|
0.338
|
0.273
|
29.3%
|
4.1%
|
TEX
|
Heaney - L
|
(1/4)
|
(3/4)
|
1.41
|
6.35
|
4.54
|
5.80
|
5.84
|
4.96
|
0.329
|
0.338
|
19.0%
|
11.4%
|
Edge – SEA
Luis Castillo jas started 5 games for the Mariners with 2 grading as above average and 3 grading as below. He has given up a total of 15 runs (14 earned)on 34 hits and 5 walks over 28.2 innings with 36 Ks. Castillo has now delivered back to back quality starts after giving up 4 earned runs in each of his first three outings to open the season. Castillo appears to be trending in the right direction following that rocky start and now sports an outstanding 31/3 K/BB ratio.
The 31-year-old Castillo was acquired by the Mariners at the 2022 trade deadline. Last season, he posted a 1.10 WHIP and 3.34 ERA, with a 219/56 KBB rtio over 197 innings. His K and walk rates remained stable, but his 1.3 HR/9 was the highest since 2018.
Andew Heaney has started 4 games for the Rangers this season with just 1 (his first) grading as above average and the next 3 all grading as below. He has given up 14 runs (12 earned) on 15 hits and 9 walks over 17 innings with 15 Ks. His statistical profile doesn’t offer much to be optimistic about.
Heaney once ranked among the top pitching prospects in the sport, but he's become more of an off-and-on type starts with more offs than ons. For the time being, Heaney’s rotation spot seems safe, but with Max Scherzer (back), Jacob deGrom (elbow) and Tyler Mahle (elbow) all on the mend, it could be just a matter of time for the fading Heaney.
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st5 only bet
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
SEA
|
3.71
|
24
|
0.302
|
22
|
101
|
15
|
0.126
|
25
|
9.9%
|
7
|
-1.2
|
13
|
44.8%
|
2
|
7.1%
|
14
|
27.4%
|
2
|
TEX
|
4.76
|
10
|
0.322
|
9
|
108
|
10
|
0.142
|
14
|
8.8%
|
16
|
-0.8
|
18
|
36.2%
|
24
|
6.4%
|
19
|
19.7%
|
23
|
Edge TEX
The Rangers score more runs with a better wOBA and wRC+, so they have to get the offensive edge.
Conclusion: The Rangers are the better hitting teams and they plastered Castillo to the tune of 9 runs in the final game of the 2023 regular season, the game that Knocked the Mariners out of the playoff race. However, despite that ug;ly showing Castillo has always been better than Heaney, and this season Heaney looks even worse. For five innings, I’ll take a shot with Castillo.
Pick – SEA 1st 5 ML in a side bet
LAD @ WASH
The 15-11 Dodgers blew out the 10-13 Nats last night to take a 2-0 lead in this series in D.C. The feisty Nats did take two of three from the Dodger in LA earlier this month.
Starting Pitchers
4:05
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
LAD
|
Yamamoto - R
|
(2/5)
|
(2/5)
|
1.14
|
4.50
|
4.07
|
3.02
|
2.68
|
2.59
|
0.311
|
0.322
|
32.3%
|
5.4%
|
WASH
|
Gore - L
|
(3/4)
|
(1/4)
|
1.35
|
3.60
|
3.44
|
2.31
|
2.96
|
2.83
|
0.326
|
0.298
|
31.8%
|
7.1%
|
Edge – None
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has started 5 games for the Dodgers and has struggled some with just 2 of the 5 gading as abpve average and 2 grading as below. He has given up 12 runs (11 earned) on 20 hits and 5 walks over 22 innings with an impressive 30 Ks. Yamato’s WHIP is fine but his ERA is mediocre. His ERA metrics, on the other hand are all about a run lower than that bloated ERA , telling me that Yamamoto has pitched better than his ERA would sugest His 32.3 K Gorerate is elite, but his 54.4% hard hit rate is troubling and if he keeps getting hit that hard, it will come back to haunt him. Overall, Yamamoto has looked underwhelming, especially considering his huge price tag.
Mackenzie Gore has started for games for the Nats with 3 of the 4 grading as above average. He has given up 8 runs on 21 hits and 6 walks over 20 innings with 27 Ks. Gore’s WHIP is only mediocre. But his ERA is solid and, like Yamamtp, his ERA metrics are all even lower than his ERA. He also sports a similarly elite K rate but with a slightly higher walk rate.
2024 Fantasy Outlook
As part of the Nats' haul in the Juan Soto trade in August, of 2022, Gore is coming off a good-not-great first full MLB season. Actually, it wasn't a completely full season because the Nats shut him down in early September due to a blister on his left index finger. That's a non-issue now, though, and the young southpaw will be looking to build on the things that he did best in 2023. One of the hardest-throwing lefties in the sport, Gore used his fastball and power slider to strike out 151 batters over 136.1 innings, delivering a 26% K rate that ranked top-20 among the 87 big-league pitchers who logged more than 130 innings last season. If he can improve his command and find more trust in the other elements of his five-pitch arsenal, the groundwork will be laid for Gore to quickly rise up the ranks of top starting pitchers.
Bullpens
N/A – This is a 1st 5 only bet
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
LAD
|
5.35
|
5
|
0.348
|
2
|
122
|
3
|
0.165
|
6
|
10.7%
|
2
|
-0.3
|
16
|
39.4%
|
13
|
8.3%
|
6
|
23.0%
|
13
|
WSN
|
3.61
|
25
|
0.307
|
20
|
93
|
21
|
0.138
|
21
|
9.2%
|
12
|
2.1
|
4
|
38.4%
|
17
|
6.8%
|
16
|
21.9%
|
17
|
Edge – LAD big
Other than not running the bases as well as the Nats, the Dodgers hold every other offense edge and by a fairly wide margin.
This is one that I might very well regret tomorrow. The Dodgers have the much better offense, They one of the best offenses in baseball and that’s scary. Hower, the starting pitching matchup between Yamamoto and Gore looks real close and I can’t resist a +155 price on Gore for five innings. Yamamoto hasn’t been any better than Gore so far.
OAK @ NYY
After losing the first game of this series with the 9-16 A’s 2-0 on Monday, the 17-8 Yankees bounced back with two sright wins at Yankee Stadium to take a 2-1 series lead.
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
OAK
|
Wood - L
|
(0/5)
|
(4/5)
|
2.03
|
7.89
|
6.45
|
5.33
|
5.42
|
4.76
|
0.454
|
0.392
|
18.5%
|
10.2%
|
NYY
|
Cortes
|
(2/5)
|
(3/5)
|
1.15
|
3.41
|
2.74
|
3.19
|
3.69
|
3.55
|
,277
|
0.267
|
23.7%
|
4.2%
|
Edge – NYY
Alex Wood has been dreadful so far this season with four of his 5 starts grading as below average. He has given up 19 runs on 33 hits and 11 walks over 21.2 innings with 20 Ks. His WHIP is over 2.00 and his ERA is clsing in on 8.00. Wood’s ERA metrics are all over 5.00 and his wOBA is close to .500 than 400. This guy is a complete disaster!
Nestor Cortes didn’t start the season well, but after giving up 7 runs on 13 hit and 4 walks over 10 innings in is first three outings, Cortes has now reeled off three straight above average outing in which he;s given up a total of 4 runs on 13 hits and 1 walk over over his last 19 innings. When compared to Wood, Cortes statistical profile looks so much better.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
OAK
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
73.0%
|
10
|
0.51
|
7
|
1.37
|
25
|
2.99
|
7
|
20.2%
|
25
|
9.1%
|
16
|
NYY
|
9
|
3
|
12
|
5
|
71.9%
|
12
|
0.40
|
6
|
1.26
|
10
|
2.96
|
6
|
22.0%
|
20
|
9.9%
|
21
|
Edge – NYY
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
OAK
|
2.84
|
29
|
0.278
|
28
|
84
|
26
|
0.139
|
17
|
8.3%
|
21
|
-4.3
|
30
|
45.2%
|
1
|
7.7%
|
9
|
27.8%
|
NYY
|
4.44
|
14
|
0.318
|
12
|
110
|
8
|
0.139
|
17
|
11.4%
|
1
|
-1.6
|
24
|
37.2%
|
22
|
7.4%
|
10
|
20.8%
|
Edge – NYY
Conclusion: The Yankees are the much better hitting team and also have the much better bullpen. As for the two starting pitchers, that looks like a mismatch, not because Netor Cortes has been great. He just looks great when compared to Alex Wood, who shuld even be in the A’s rotation. He’s been that bad. The anks are the better heam here and it shouldn’t be close.
Pick – NYY 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays