For what it’s worth, I am pleased to tell you that last night was a stellar one for me, especially coming off that unmitigated disaster that I had on Tuesday. One day for dropping over 31units, Ibpunced back in a big way, picking up nearly haff of what I lost on Tuesday. I finished the day +14.04 units, leaving me a paltry +18.42 units for this young season.
I only played three games yesterday. I used two of the teams (four sides) in a round robin of ML parlay, the Yankees 1st 5 and full games MLs and the Braves 1st 5 and full game MLs. All four sides cashed. I also had two sided bets on the Cubs 1st 5 ML and full game ML. Both of those won as well
Today is another new day and it’s still very young in the season. There’s plenty of time to add to the bankroll. We have a 10-game slate today and they’re almost a;l; day games. I like several, so let’s get right to it. Here’s my card.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
198
|
2
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
PHIL ML
|
192
|
2
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
143
|
2
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
NYY ML
|
148
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
140
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
NYY ML
|
144
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
135
|
2
|
|
PHIL ML
|
NYY ML
|
139
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
MIL ML
|
|
-120
|
2
|
|
HOU 1st 5 ML
|
|
-125
|
2
|
|
SEA 1st 5 ML
|
|
-123
|
2
|
|
WASH 1st 5 ML
|
|
155
|
2
|
I updated team offensive stats today an will update their bullpen stats tomorrow.
Here’s how I see the three earliest games. I’ll post the later games in a bit.
MIL @ PITT
The 16-8 Brewers are off to a surprisingly hot start this season and won 3-2 yesterday after losing the first two games of this series at the much improved 13-12 Pirates.
Starting Pitchers
12:35
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
MIL
|
Peralta - R
|
|
(4/4)
|
(0/4)
|
0.76
|
1.90
|
3.09
|
2.23
|
2.40
|
2.07
|
0.223
|
0.263
|
36.7%
|
4.4%
|
PITT
|
Keller - R
|
|
(2/5)
|
(3/5)
|
1.47
|
4.80
|
4.67
|
3.99
|
4.01
|
0.14
|
0.353
|
0.342
|
18.9%
|
8.3%
|
Edge – MIL
Brewers ace Freddy Peralta has started 4 games for the Brewers this season and was just one out shy of delivering four quality starts. H has given up a total of 5 runs on 14 hits and 4 walks over 23.2 innings with an impressive 32 Ks. Peralta’s statistical profile is across the board superb with that almost 37% K rate as the highlight. He's posted double-digit whiffs in each of his four starts, including 13 on in his last start at the Cards. The right-hander was able to stay healthy last season and set career highs in starts (30) and innings (165.2). Peralta was one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league, with his 30.9% rate ranking 4th and his .211 batting average against was also elite. The only blemish was the career high 26 HRs that he surrendered and we could see some positive regression on that front, his season. He’s only given up 2 so far.
Mitch Keller has started 5 games for the Pirates with 2 grading as above average and 3 grading as below. He has given up 18 runs (16 earned) on 33 hits and 11 walks over 30 innings with 25 Ks. Across the board, Keller statistical profile isn’t all that impressive and doesn’t come close to es measuring up to Peralta’s. Keller did notch his first career All-Star nod last season, but fell apart after the break posting a 1.44 WHIP and 5.59 ERA over his last 13 starts. The good news is that the right-hander stayed mostly healthy and set a career high with 194.1 innings, while also improving his K rate and walk rates, but the overall result were mediocre.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
MIL
|
9
|
2
|
8
|
1
|
79.5%
|
5
|
0.44
|
8
|
1.23
|
8
|
3.09
|
8
|
21.5%
|
22
|
8.3%
|
11
|
PITT
|
6
|
4
|
6
|
2
|
61.8%
|
28
|
0.50
|
17
|
1.23
|
8
|
4.42
|
21
|
22.4%
|
16
|
8.1%
|
9
|
Edge – MIL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
MIL
|
5.22
|
8
|
0.339
|
4
|
113
|
5
|
0.155
|
8
|
9.5%
|
10
|
1.3
|
8
|
39.6%
|
11
|
7.4%
|
10
|
23.2%
|
12
|
PITT
|
4.16
|
17
|
0.304
|
21
|
89
|
24
|
0.114
|
28
|
10.6%
|
3
|
-0.8
|
18
|
39.6%
|
11
|
6.4%
|
19
|
24.0%
|
11
|
Edge MIL
Conclusion: The Brewers have all the edges here. They have been the better hitting team and have the better bullpen. They also have the much better starting pitcher. Freddu Peralta is elite and Mitch Keller is far from elite.
Pick – MIL 1st 5 MLin a series of parlays
Pick – MIL full game ML in a side bet
PHIL @ CIN
After the 15-10 Phils took the first two games of this series, the 14-10 Reds got one back with a 7-4 win yesterday.
Starting Pitchers
1:10
|
SP
|
|
GS +
|
(8/32)
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
PHIL
|
Wheeler - R
|
|
(4/5)
|
(1/5)
|
0.89
|
2.30
|
2.32
|
2.42
|
2.64
|
2.65
|
0.235
|
0.246
|
30.2%
|
5.6%
|
CIN
|
Martinez - R
|
|
(0/2)
|
(2/2)
|
1.24
|
4.76
|
3.54
|
2.98
|
4.39
|
3.86
|
0.306
|
0.302
|
18.9%
|
2.7%
|
Edge – PHIL huge
Zack Wheeler has started 5 games for the Phils and delivered quality starts in 4 of them, with just 1 grading as below average. He has given up a total of 11 runs (8 earned) on 21 hit and 7 walks over 31.1 innings with an impressive 28 Ks.
Wheeler has been everything that the for when they signed him. The right0hander has missed just five starts in his time with the Phils hile giving the staff the consistency that Aaron Nola could not. Wheeler is coming off another strong regular season and an even stronger postseason with a 1.95 ERA over five games with 35 Ks and 3 walks in 27.2 innings of work. Wheeler turns 34 this season and is pitching for the final big deal of his career. His four-seam fastball is still exceptional. He has been truly elite.
Nick Martinez stated two games for the Reds earlier this season and neither was very good as he gave up 8 runs on 14 hits and 2 walks over 10 innings with 9 Ks. After making four and three-inning appearances out of the Reds bullpen last week, Martinez will, at least temporarily, rejoin the Res’ rotation replacing the injured Franke Montas (forearm).
The 33-year-old Martinez mixes five pitches effectively, with his 80 mph change and curve being the best of those offerings. his best offerings. He produced a career-best 23% K rate last season to supplement his elite 53.3% GB rate.
Bullpens
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
PHIL
|
4
|
2
|
7
|
2
|
62.5%
|
27
|
0.43
|
30
|
1.17
|
4
|
5.78
|
30
|
25.6%
|
2
|
8.5%
|
13
|
CIN
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
2
|
74.1%
|
9
|
0.49
|
14
|
1.28
|
15
|
3.79
|
14
|
23.9%
|
8
|
9.5%
|
19
|
Edge – CIN maybe but really close. Neither pen is anywhere near elite and I don’t really trust either one.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
PHI
|
2.29
|
7
|
0.316
|
14
|
98
|
20
|
0.143
|
11
|
9.5%
|
10
|
0.4
|
13
|
39.3%
|
15
|
5.9%
|
24
|
22.5%
|
15
|
CIN
|
4.32
|
15
|
0.315
|
15
|
93
|
21
|
0.169
|
4
|
10.2%
|
4
|
4.7
|
1
|
40.4%
|
6
|
8.5%
|
5
|
25.9%
|
6
|
Edge – None
The Reds do score more runs and have the better wRC+, but their wOBAs are almost identical and every other offensive stat points to the Phils. This is too close to give either team an edge.
Conclusion: The oddsmakers lines tell me this is a reasonably close game but they make the Phils a moderate favorite and I agree. Both of these teams hit equally well and neither team has a very good bullpen. As for the two starting pitchers, that should be a mismatch. Wheeler is one of the best pitchers in baseball and Martinezis nowhere near that elite level. No Guarantee on this full gave, But I rank the Phils as the better team here.
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
HOU @ CHI C
After a 4-3 loss last night, the struggling 7-19 Astros have now lost the first two games of this series to the 15-9 Cubs at Wrigley.
Starting Pitchers
2:20
|
SP
|
GS +
|
GS -
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HTN
|
Verlander - R
|
(1/1_
|
(0/1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CHI C
|
Assad
|
(4/4)
|
(0/4)
|
1.03
|
2.11
|
3.18
|
3.67
|
3.93
|
3.86
|
0.267
|
0.281
|
25.0%
|
9.5%
|
Edge - ??? I really am not sure by reputation alone, I’d have to say the Astros because Verlanders been so good for so long, but Assad has pitched great this season, but it’s on;y 4 s and he’s never been this good before.
Edge – CHI C
We don’t have a big enough sample size to provide a reasonable profile for Justin Verlander. Here’s what I have.
Verlander picked up the W in Friday's 4-2 win over the Nats, giving up 2 runs on 4 hits over 6 innings, while striking out 4 without walking a batter. The 41-year-old right-hander didn't look like a pitcher who had spent the first three-plus weeks of the season on the IL with shoulder trouble. Verlander threw 50 of 78 pitches for strikes, and his two fastest pitches of the night clocked in at 95.0 and 94.9 mph. Verlander looked ready to step into his usual role at the top of the rotation.
Javier Assad is pitching as well as he ever has.He has started 4 games for the Cubs and all four graded as above average. Assad has given up a total of 5 runs on 14 hits and 8 walks over 21,1 innings with 21 Ks. However, in his last outing v the Marlins, while the right-hander kept the Marlins off the board until two walks, a single and a sacrifice fly produced a run in the 5th, it was the worst start of the season for Assad as he failed to go five innings for the first time thos season.
Bullpen
Team
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
LOB%
|
Rk
|
RIP
|
Rk
|
WHIP
|
Rk
|
ERA
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
HOU
|
2
|
8
|
2
|
2
|
63.9%
|
24
|
0.61
|
28
|
1.51
|
29
|
5.36
|
28
|
19.6%
|
29
|
10.7%
|
26
|
CHC
|
7
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
71.9%
|
12
|
0.51
|
17
|
1.30
|
19
|
3.99
|
17
|
23.6%
|
10
|
9.5%
|
19
|
Edge - CHI C
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rk
|
wOBA
|
Rk
|
wRC+
|
Rk
|
ISO
|
Rk
|
BB%
|
Rk
|
BsR
|
Rk
|
HH%
|
Rk
|
Bar%
|
Rk
|
K%
|
Rk
|
HOU
|
4.04
|
19
|
0.328
|
6
|
115
|
4
|
0.142
|
14
|
8.2%
|
22
|
-3.8
|
29
|
33.2%
|
30
|
6.7%
|
17
|
17.2%
|
30
|
CHC]I C
|
5.42
|
4
|
0.328
|
6
|
107
|
11
|
0.166
|
5
|
10.2%
|
4
|
-0.8
|
18
|
39.4%
|
13
|
9.0%
|
2
|
23.0%
|
13
|
Edge – CHI C
Strangely, the Astros actually have the same wOBA and better wRC+ than the Cubs, but everything else here points to the Cubs, but it’s closer than I would have expected.
Conclusion: What in the hell has happened to the Astros? They have been one of the league’s best teams for several years and suddenly this season it’s all turned to shit. Although it’s close, the Cubs appear to be the slightly better hitting team here. Justin Verlander is back. He looks healthy and his velocity is still up there. Healso has the pedigree on an elite starter, even at his age. Javier Assd is off to a great start, but we saw some chinks in the armor is his k=last outing. He’s never been this good before and I’m nor sure that he really is now. I ride with Verlander for five innings here and hope the Astros can give him a few runs..
Pick – HOU 1st 5 ML in a side bet.